Alright, let's get down to some nitty gritty here, folks.
What if Alex Smith is amazing in 2017? The Chiefs hand will be forced -- keep him. 2018 will be the final year of his contract and it's a $20m cap hit. Not unreasonable for a guy playing extremely well.
So, what would the Chiefs have to do?
First, we pretty much have the cap met RIGHT NOW, assuming we bring back absolutely no one who is a free agent. So our cap is royally fucked.
The two most popular ideas right now are cutting DJ/Hali, or letting them both retire, or whatever. Cutting them saves us a combined $15m. We likely have DJ's replacements already on the roster, and Ford will be entering his contract year in 2018.
We can also cut (or trade) Allen Bailey if we want to elevate RNR to a starting slot. Trading Bailey saves us $8m (and nets us a draft pick or whatever). Cutting him saves us $6m.
If Eric Fisher has a really good 2017, maybe we just extend/restructure him at the end of the season. That would lower his cap hit in 2018 (right now it's slated for $14m).
I wouldn't touch Allen Bailey, but I'd cut DJ/Hali and extend/restructure Fisher. That allows us to keep Mr. Smith and have roughly $20m in cap space, $5m of which can go to our rookie class.
I think it's non-negotiable that we bring back Terrance Mitchell, but he shouldn't cost a ton. Bennie Logan might be a good idea -- although, again, we could just play RNR at the nose and be fine (which is what I would do if we kept Smith on the roster).
So my recommendation, keeping Alex rather than trading him:
1. cut/retire DJ
2. cut/retire Hali
3. restructure/extend Fisher
4. extend Terrance Mitchell
5. let basically all of our FAs walk: De'Anthony, Fulton, Logan, Sherman, Albert Wilson, Gaines, Colquitt
6. make a few choice re-signings (Santos, KPL, maybe Gaines?)
That'll leave us thin at DL, OL, and OLB -- which I hate. And the best draft pick we'll have in 2018 will be at the very bottom of the 2nd.
The possibility of keeping Alex looks more and more likely each
Week. If we go to the Super Bowl, I guarantee we keep him. He is a master of this offense [Reply]
Originally Posted by Black Bob:
The possibility of keeping Alex looks more and more likely each
Week. If we go to the Super Bowl, I guarantee we keep him. He is a master of this offense
I absolutely don't know how you let him go at this point. [Reply]
I'm fine with Alex being here in 2018 if he takes us to the SB. It's not the end of the world. Nobosy outside of the "Alex hatred no matter what cult" will be bitching if he restructures his last year and keeps playing like he is now.
I think it would be foolish to keep him beyond 2018 though. At 35, his time is very close to being over for the type of QB he is. I know he says he has 5 more years left in him, but history doesn't agree with QB's who play like him. [Reply]
What makes anyone think he would take enough of a salary cut for the Chiefs to afford him next year? I can't see a guy coming off an MVP caliber year agreeing to a 50 or so percent cut, and he shouldn't.
Anyrhing less than that means they will have to make difficult decisions in the Spring. May have to do it even with half his original salary for 18. [Reply]
When Alex and the Chief's management agreed to a contract extension, both sides knew Alex could be released or traded in Feb. 2018 if Chiefs management have a suitable replacement lined up. Trading up to get Mahomes and see him prove himself in preseason satisfies the suitable replacement requirement.
If Alex isn't traded or released, it seriously reduces the value of Mahomes rookie contract because it eliminates the cap relief the Chiefs would receive by trading or releasing Alex. Alex balling out makes a trade more likely. A second day draft pick is preferable to a $20 million cap hit when Mahomes has shown outstanding potential to run AR's offense. [Reply]
With his current performance and (surprise surprise) the 18 QB class looking more iffy, the Chiefs are going to get a first round pick out of Alex. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BryanBusby:
With his current performance and (surprise surprise) the 18 QB class looking more iffy, the Chiefs are going to get a first round pick out of Alex.
If the Jags make the playoffs.....they won’t have a chance to grab a QB next year. They could take a run at Cousins if he’s out there but I’d send Smith there for a low 1st. [Reply]
Originally Posted by RunKC:
I'm fine with Alex being here in 2018 if he takes us to the SB. It's not the end of the world. Nobosy outside of the "Alex hatred no matter what cult" will be bitching if he restructures his last year and keeps playing like he is now.
I think it would be foolish to keep him beyond 2018 though. At 35, his time is very close to being over for the type of QB he is. I know he says he has 5 more years left in him, but history doesn't agree with QB's who play like him.
As I said elsewhere, the wonderful thing about Smith's play is that he's driving his trade stock through the roof while simultaneously making his domestic price out of reach.
He'd have to take one hell of a team-friendly deal to stay in KC, and I don't see that happening.
EDIT:
Who's going to take a "team-friendly" when the team has already made it clear that they have drafted your replacement?
A: No one with ANY self-respect, that's who.
Thank you John Dorsey, you brilliant, brilliant man. :-) [Reply]
