Alright, let's get down to some nitty gritty here, folks.
What if Alex Smith is amazing in 2017? The Chiefs hand will be forced -- keep him. 2018 will be the final year of his contract and it's a $20m cap hit. Not unreasonable for a guy playing extremely well.
So, what would the Chiefs have to do?
First, we pretty much have the cap met RIGHT NOW, assuming we bring back absolutely no one who is a free agent. So our cap is royally fucked.
The two most popular ideas right now are cutting DJ/Hali, or letting them both retire, or whatever. Cutting them saves us a combined $15m. We likely have DJ's replacements already on the roster, and Ford will be entering his contract year in 2018.
We can also cut (or trade) Allen Bailey if we want to elevate RNR to a starting slot. Trading Bailey saves us $8m (and nets us a draft pick or whatever). Cutting him saves us $6m.
If Eric Fisher has a really good 2017, maybe we just extend/restructure him at the end of the season. That would lower his cap hit in 2018 (right now it's slated for $14m).
I wouldn't touch Allen Bailey, but I'd cut DJ/Hali and extend/restructure Fisher. That allows us to keep Mr. Smith and have roughly $20m in cap space, $5m of which can go to our rookie class.
I think it's non-negotiable that we bring back Terrance Mitchell, but he shouldn't cost a ton. Bennie Logan might be a good idea -- although, again, we could just play RNR at the nose and be fine (which is what I would do if we kept Smith on the roster).
So my recommendation, keeping Alex rather than trading him:
1. cut/retire DJ
2. cut/retire Hali
3. restructure/extend Fisher
4. extend Terrance Mitchell
5. let basically all of our FAs walk: De'Anthony, Fulton, Logan, Sherman, Albert Wilson, Gaines, Colquitt
6. make a few choice re-signings (Santos, KPL, maybe Gaines?)
That'll leave us thin at DL, OL, and OLB -- which I hate. And the best draft pick we'll have in 2018 will be at the very bottom of the 2nd.
If Smith plays his best football this year, we'll get a first.
Bradford's younger, you say? Great, he gives you more years of shitty QB play.
Smith in his current situation and age is tailor-made for a team looking to rebuild through the QB position. He's tailor-made for a team that has a defense in place but no QB.
There's no reason why we can't trade him for a 1st if he plays his best football this year. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Y'know we say that....but would they?
I mean, we can just cross off the top 10, right? Nobody's giving up a top 10 pick for a 33 yr old QB with 1 year left on his deal so they can get the privilege of extending him into his decline years. Nobody would give up a top 10 for Cousins who's younger and has absolutely killed it the last 2 years.
So that leaves us with teams in the 11-30 range. Well most teams in that range are actually pretty good and have their QB situation well in hand for the next few years or have drafted someone relatively recently (The Texans, for instance, who now have Watson and traded next years 1st anyway).
Give me the 'someone'. You need a team on the cusp of competition who's going to be in the middle of the round and sees Alex Smith as someone that can get them to the next step.
For a 33 year old passer, that's just not going to exist. His window is too short; he fits an odd niche. I see one possibility out there - just one. Jacksonville. If Jacksonville can take all that talent on defense and turn in an 8-8 kind of season that has them drafting around 16 so they have to take a more raw long-term option at QB, perhaps they look at Smith as a guy that can stabilize the franchise while the young defense continues to gel. He can keep them all playing meaningful snaps while the young QB develops.
And I guess maybe Washington for similar reasons though if Cousins leaves the 'Skins should probably just tear it down and rebuild; I don't see a long-term core there.
Those both seem like serious long shots and that's assuming neither of them actually sign Kirk Cousins (wouldn't Jacksonville be a perfect spot for him?).
A second is probably the best we'll do. And that's assuming he puts up 3,800 and 25+.
He'd have to really be playing well. I think Arians might do it if Palmer is done. But realistically, I think a 2nd plus is more likely. [Reply]
Originally Posted by mnchiefsguy:
Cannot extend him...that just pushes the cap hit down the road, and we will need that cap space to stay competitive and get Mahomes talent around him.
Alex costs too much against the cap next year. Chiefs cannot afford to keep him. It is that simple. Mahomes will be ready. Mahomes will start.
But that is next year. Let's just enjoy the ride this year and see where the river takes us.
Yeah if Smith doesn't regress right back to the Pittsburgh / Tennessee / Tampa Bay version of himself there's no way he doesn't get extended.
Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower:
Yeah if Smith doesn't regress right back to the Pittsburgh / Tennessee / Tampa Bay version of himself there's no way he doesn't get extended.
Get ****ing used to it.
Bullshit. Let him ball out all year. Then trade his ass.
You don't spend what the Chiefs spent to draft a QB and not play him. [Reply]
