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Saccopoo Memorial Draft Forum>Early 2021 Mock (3 rounds)
staylor26 09:40 PM 11-25-2020
*Chiefs get a 2021 and 2021 3rd round comp pick for Bieniemy.

1. Dylan Moses, LB, Alabama- After using a 2nd in Gay last year, the Chiefs take Moses in the 1st to pair with him and turn a position thatís been a weakness for far too long into a strength.

2. Jaelan Phillips, EDGE, Miami- The Chiefs need to add another pass rusher with KPass and Okafor set to be going elsewhere in 2021. Phillips is a former #1 overall recruit that battled injuries at UCLA before transferring to Miami.

3. Tylan Wallace, WR, Oklahoma St.- Wallace is a replacement for Watkins that should compliment Hill and Hardman well with his YAC ability. Like Watkins, Wallace might not be as fast as Hill/Hardman, but he is still plenty fast enough and can make big plays especially after the catch.

3. Bubba Bolden, S, Miami- another transfer to Miami, Bolden is a top HS recruit from USC and like Phillips is having a great year for the Hurricanes. I love Dirty Dan, but heís a liability at times and the Chiefs could use another young athletic safety that gives Spags another chess piece to work with.

I know some are going to say ďwhereís the IOL?Ē, but the truth is this isnít a very good class and unless you are willing to take one in the 1st, chances are you will be reaching for one in rounds 2-3. The Chiefs have 2 4thís, 2 5thís, and a 6th to work with. If they have to take 2 to hedge their bets a little, so be it.
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kccrow 09:19 PM 12-08-2020
Originally Posted by Bowser:
Linebacker, G/C, tight end.

Best talent at each position per pick per round (one pick per position lol). Go.

I legitimately don't understand the draft a TE early crowd. The thought that "what if Kelce got hurt, we have nothing behind him" really has little merit in the process. What if Hill got hurt? Do we have someone that can replace a top 3 receiver in the NFL? Nope. What if Mahomes got hurt? Can we replace the best QB in the NFL? Nope. At least not for any significant time with any of these guys. We don't have even remotely comparable players at any of those positions.

Could Veach draft a TE in the later rounds? I think it's possible, even probable, but to do it in round 3 or higher right now? I highly doubt that's happening.

Now LB and G/C I'd agree are in play. I'd put DE up there, and with Nnadi having an expiring contract soon I'd put DT on the list in the 3rd-4th. Obviously, a #2 WR has to be a thought and you can't rule out a SS if Veach doesn't extend Honey Badger.
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duncan_idaho 07:38 AM 12-09-2020
Originally Posted by kccrow:
I legitimately don't understand the draft a TE early crowd. The thought that "what if Kelce got hurt, we have nothing behind him" really has little merit in the process. What if Hill got hurt? Do we have someone that can replace a top 3 receiver in the NFL? Nope. What if Mahomes got hurt? Can we replace the best QB in the NFL? Nope. At least not for any significant time with any of these guys. We don't have even remotely comparable players at any of those positions.

Could Veach draft a TE in the later rounds? I think it's possible, even probable, but to do it in round 3 or higher right now? I highly doubt that's happening.

Now LB and G/C I'd agree are in play. I'd put DE up there, and with Nnadi having an expiring contract soon I'd put DT on the list in the 3rd-4th. Obviously, a #2 WR has to be a thought and you can't rule out a SS if Veach doesn't extend Honey Badger.

For me, itís about whatís available there and impact. We have a coach who has run a lot of 12 personnel in the past. A truly elite TE who is a matchup nightmare as a receiver and also a dynamic run blocker (which is what the Penn State kid is) would make that personnel grouping really difficult to match up with.

Itís not an injury replacement/backup situation for me. Itís an adjustment to having less dynamic impact from the WR position should Watkins depart. Itís a way to set up a new primary personnel grouping and also improve the run game. And itís a way to extend the run of having great TE play to complement Mahomes 4-5 years down the road, if Kelce retires or starts to slip.

Itís just one path, if there isnít a DE or OL type at that pick that makes sense for the team (and the more I look at Alijah Vera-Tucker, the more I see that as a fit as someone who can be dynamite at LG right away but also could potentially play LT, too).

Iím not sure thereís a WR available at 32 that provides more value over someone like your guy Stevenson in round 3 or Tulane Wallace in round 2.

Iíd be good with a LB at that spot, too (Bolton, the Tulsa kid seem like possibilities).
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Oxford 11:41 AM 12-09-2020
ILB, EDGE, or if talent pool is meh at 32, the a trade down.

But I really understand the desire to draft a TE2 or someone to understudy Kelce. This offense is dependent on a TE that can function in the pass game. How deep is the TE or Big WR (a route guy that can play TE) class?

IOL or C if BPA when you are picking outside of 1st round.

WR's in Andy's system take several years so if on a rookie contract you burn a lot of that just getting them ready. So I think we see the "usual suspects" as UDFA or late round flyers, or one of Veach's "Hey Coach" specials
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Chargem 11:51 AM 12-09-2020
I don't like the interior of the O line right now, but I could see one or both of Wiz and Osmele signing another 1 year cheap deal for next year.

I would be feeling much more positive about a line of Fisher, Osmele, X, LDT, Schwartz going into next year with Niang and Allegretti the first guys in off the bench.

I don't know what to do about C, with an improvement at both G positions I would be okay with Kilgore or Reiter back on another cheap deal, but something has to be done long term. At least with one of those two (or Wiz/Allegretti playing center for a year?) you could draft a more developmental guy in the 4th or 5th.
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kccrow 04:22 PM 12-09-2020
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho:
For me, itís about whatís available there and impact. We have a coach who has run a lot of 12 personnel in the past. A truly elite TE who is a matchup nightmare as a receiver and also a dynamic run blocker (which is what the Penn State kid is) would make that personnel grouping really difficult to match up with.

Itís not an injury replacement/backup situation for me. Itís an adjustment to having less dynamic impact from the WR position should Watkins depart. Itís a way to set up a new primary personnel grouping and also improve the run game. And itís a way to extend the run of having great TE play to complement Mahomes 4-5 years down the road, if Kelce retires or starts to slip.

Itís just one path, if there isnít a DE or OL type at that pick that makes sense for the team (and the more I look at Alijah Vera-Tucker, the more I see that as a fit as someone who can be dynamite at LG right away but also could potentially play LT, too).

Iím not sure thereís a WR available at 32 that provides more value over someone like your guy Stevenson in round 3 or Tulane Wallace in round 2.

Iíd be good with a LB at that spot, too (Bolton, the Tulsa kid seem like possibilities).
Two things for me with regard to TE for me...
1. I would be pretty pissed if Veach ignored more pressing needs for starters in the first two rounds and went with a TE. That's a waste of draft capital at this point to me.

2. I don't know what the data is on "a lot" of 12 personnel, but my eyeballs don't recall seeing a lot. I think we've seen it more in short-yardage and goal to go situations, but as a rule not all that much. And if I'm correct, I don't forsee any major need to allocate a high-end resource over more pressing needs. I'm okay with a mid or late-round selection, but anything higher is foolish to me with Kelce likely being here a handful of years longer. I'd change that opinion if we were losing Kelce or expecting him to retire after the 2021 season.
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duncan_idaho 08:14 PM 12-09-2020
Originally Posted by kccrow:
Two things for me with regard to TE for me...
1. I would be pretty pissed if Veach ignored more pressing needs for starters in the first two rounds and went with a TE. That's a waste of draft capital at this point to me.

2. I don't know what the data is on "a lot" of 12 personnel, but my eyeballs don't recall seeing a lot. I think we've seen it more in short-yardage and goal to go situations, but as a rule not all that much. And if I'm correct, I don't forsee any major need to allocate a high-end resource over more pressing needs. I'm okay with a mid or late-round selection, but anything higher is foolish to me with Kelce likely being here a handful of years longer. I'd change that opinion if we were losing Kelce or expecting him to retire after the 2021 season.

Theyíve run it about 1/3 of the time since Mahomes became QB and ran it more under Smith (if you count the 3 TE sets, too). I can only find data back to 2018.

Iím not selling out for that but if they donít have a target they like at the higher value positions (DE, OT, DT, WR, I think heís the best one in range there at 32. You could trade down and I wouldnít complain.

My idea is that they could run that 12 personnel grouping more, run more successfully out of it, and still create matchup problems in the passing game. They flex Kelce out like a WR a lot anyway.

If they end up retaining Watkins I see less appeal there. Itís just the idea of losing that third receiving weapon Iím trying to plan around, knowing Hardman wonít just step into Watkins role and knowing a first round receiver - even one drafted round 1 - is unlikely to make much every down impact year 1 for KC.
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Chris Meck 08:39 AM 12-11-2020
I'm kind of doubting Moses falls, although if he did that'd be great.

What do you guys think about Carlos Basham? The DE from Wake Forest?
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staylor26 03:20 PM 12-11-2020
Originally Posted by Chris Meck:
I'm kind of doubting Moses falls, although if he did that'd be great.

What do you guys think about Carlos Basham? The DE from Wake Forest?
I like Basham, but just not sure if he’s a 1st round guy and I don’t think he’ll be available late in the 2nd. He’d be a great fit at that LDE spot though with his size and strength. He looks like a 7-9 sack a year guy. Reminds me of a Carlos Dunlap type.

He’s the kind of guy I trade out of the 1st and take. Although I’m not completely against taking him at 30-32.
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duncan_idaho 07:44 PM 12-11-2020
Originally Posted by staylor26:
I like Basham, but just not sure if heís a 1st round guy and I donít think heíll be available late in the 2nd. Heíd be a great fit at that LDE spot though with his size and strength. He looks like a 7-9 sack a year guy. Reminds me of a Carlos Dunlap type.

Heís the kind of guy I trade out of the 1st and take. Although Iím not completely against taking him at 30-32.

He seems like one of two types of DE you can generally find at the end of the first...
1) solid player, versatile, some pass rush skills, but more of a solid starter/rotation guy than a linchpin
2) star talent/health or legal questions guy

Heíd be fine.

How would people feel about a WR there if Watkins walks? Looking at recent mocks it seems like Terrence Marshall might be available there, and he pops enough for me to consider him. Heís a big, physical dude with enough speed, and he has experience in the slot and outside.

A lot of the other WR likely to be there seem pretty meh and not much separated from guys available a round or two later (example: Chris Olave - Marquez Stevenson)
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kccrow 09:02 PM 12-11-2020
I'd be ok with a WR at the end of 1.

When Stevenson drops a 4.3 he's shooting up boards, guaranteed, and he has some pretty good production and film to back up what he'll run. I don't know where he'll end up overall but the 1st isn't out of the question. I just don't have him there yet until I see more consensus opinions than my own. He's a prototypical Reid type. We'll have to see.

There's quite a few receivers in this draft that fit the profile though in the 2nd-4th round range. I wouldn't pound the table for anyone in particular in the 1st just yet but I wouldn't pass on the right guy.

I'm high on Basham in terms of what this team needs opposite Clark but I have a hard time separating him from a guy like Rashad Weaver who you'll probably get in the 3rd or 4th. Unless Basham absolutely surprises in workouts and an all-star game, he could see an Epenesa like drop to the late 2nd. Very similar players.
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duncan_idaho 09:34 PM 12-11-2020
Originally Posted by kccrow:
I'd be ok with a WR at the end of 1.

When Stevenson drops a 4.3 he's shooting up boards, guaranteed, and he has some pretty good production and film to back up what he'll run. I don't know where he'll end up overall but the 1st isn't out of the question. I just don't have him there yet until I see more consensus opinions than my own. He's a prototypical Reid type. We'll have to see.

There's quite a few receivers in this draft that fit the profile though in the 2nd-4th round range. I wouldn't pound the table for anyone in particular in the 1st just yet but I wouldn't pass on the right guy.

I'm high on Basham in terms of what this team needs opposite Clark but I have a hard time separating him from a guy like Rashad Weaver who you'll probably get in the 3rd or 4th. Unless Basham absolutely surprises in workouts and an all-star game, he could see an Epenesa like drop to the late 2nd. Very similar players.
Yeah, if he runs that it seems likely he starts jumping up.

Could make a Denzel Mims-like rise (I think he started as a projected 5th round guy around this time last year).
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In58men 09:46 AM 12-12-2020
Originally Posted by The Franchise:
Not sure what itís going to bring of value but we also get LDT and Niang back next year.
LDT is for sure coming back?
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Urc Burry 11:46 AM 12-12-2020
I wanted Moses in the first before he pulled out of the draft last year. So I love the pick.

At receiver I have a draft crush on Rondale Moore. Seen him mocked from the end of the first to the end of the second. So not sure where he falls. But he reminds me a lot of the niners receivers. YAC machine.
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gonefishin53 03:28 PM 12-12-2020
Andy plays 2 TE 1/3 of the time with Keiser or Yelden as the #2. He would likely play 2 TE more if the #2 TE were a competent receiving threat just to get a heavier box to pass against, imo. Brevin Jordan, Miami, is listed as a TE but, at 6'3'' and 245 lbs, lines up at WR or slot most of the time due to his athletic ability. I think Andy's 2 TE offense would be very dynamic and productive with Kelce and Jordan as the 2 TEs.
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kccrow 11:23 PM 12-12-2020
Originally Posted by gonefishin53:
Andy plays 2 TE 1/3 of the time with Keiser or Yelden as the #2. He would likely play 2 TE more if the #2 TE were a competent receiving threat just to get a heavier box to pass against, imo. Brevin Jordan, Miami, is listed as a TE but, at 6'3'' and 245 lbs, lines up at WR or slot most of the time due to his athletic ability. I think Andy's 2 TE offense would be very dynamic and productive with Kelce and Jordan as the 2 TEs.
I dug into that "1/3" stat a bit after Duncan mentioned it.

In 2018 and 2019, Reid used it 28% of the time overall.

In 2020 he's used it 20% of the time overall. He's used it 23% of 1st downs, 21% of 2nd downs, 10% of 3rd downs, and 0% on 4th down - where he tends to go to a 2 RB set instead.

While down does seem to matter, distance to go and quarter of the game don't move much. He is nearly perfectly consistent on distance to the first, and by quarter is 20%, 20%, 24%, and 16% respectively.

So, all that said, he's using a 2 TE set closer to 1/4 to 1/5 of the time and not 1/3 and primarily on 1st and 2nd down, which seem to go against what you'd expect. Either way, I'm not putting a 1st round pick into a player that plays 1/4 of the time. No way. I can't see Veach doing it either.
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