Sometimes. Sometimes you have to ignore he tore his ACL his senior year of high school. Sometimes you have to overlook the fact that he served a suspension due to harassment charges filed by his girlfriend. Sometimes you have to ignore his lack of production at Tennessee where he caught 16 passes for 247 yards and two touchdowns in 12 games.
And instead, you have to look forward. Forward to his transfer to CSU, where he sat his first year due to NCAA transfer rules but blossomed the year after.
Where in his final, first, and only full year of college football he racked up 1,345 yards and 14 TDs from 96 receptions. Where he had 3 games with over 150+ receiving yards and one game capping 248 receiving yards, averaging 14 yards per catch his his final year at CSU.
It's true. His proday wasn't the prettiest. It was slightly disappointing to be frank, primarily because of the amount of athleticism scouts saw in him. He chose not to train for it and this is what we got:
But. These are also the reasons why you will get him in the 3rd - 6th round. This is why a guy who was briefly getting low 1st round grades has dropped to where some don't even know who he is.
And watch this.
Does that guy look like he lacks athleticism? You can clearly see the flashes of speed and acceleration on tape, the kind you'd need to get separation in the NFL. He's not a burner obviously, but what he lacks in speed he makes up for in size. He can absolutely be a deep threat. According to PFF on passes over 20 yards, he's been targeted 42 times for 17 receptions 605 yards and 6TDs. When targeted deep QB's have a passer rating of 117.6 throwing his way. He's extremely versatile, ranked #6 by PFF in yards per route run when playing the slot. And if Mahomes wants to throw some fade routes in the redzone? Preston's your man. Every single time you see him go airborne in these highlights you see violent pull downs at the catch point. I'm not saying he's Larry Fitzgerald but... he kind of looks like Larry Fitzgerald.
Take a flyer on this guy in the 4th or 5th and watch our offense take shape with a flanker/split/big slot that can play for 10+ years. [Reply]
Originally Posted by staylor26:
He’s much better than that. That’s for sure.
He's much more talented than that, yes.
But the best way to determine a prospects overall 'prospect value' is to effectively multiply his ceiling by his odds of getting there; helps you factor in the floor.
So someone like Sills has a much lower ceiling and yes, Williams is 'better' than him in a vacuum. But Sills is way more likely to hit his and therefore probably a better pure prospect.
Unless you're just willing to overlook the bust potential and draft strictly for upside. I would say the only way you do that is if you're set at a position for the foreseeable future. With Robinson and Hill being FAs next season and Watkins being a potential cap casualty, I don't think that's the case here. Floor needs to be considered in our pick.
When you look at his bust potential and the depth of the 'flawed' WR prospects, you can make a pretty easy argument that he could fall anywhere from 25-40 among the WRs.
His ceiling is immense, no doubt. But his floor is a guy who could get cut out of camp. That needs to be considered in valuing him. [Reply]
