He has value, it all depends on other team needs. I wouldn't call him untouchable, but he isn't a Mike Leake situation. I would hate losing him much worse than Lance Lynn. Wacha has upside, even with his injury history. Lynn was an innings eater with primarily winning teams.
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I was thinking yesterday how few pitchers really have successful longevity. I'm not sure it is ever worth giving a big multi-year deal to any pitcher anymore. You might be better off paying early and taking the risk then (ala Martinez) if you can get it done.
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I'm going off selling high and we only need a replacement for a 5th starter for 2 months. I think Reyes is in the rotation next year.


2 month fill-in for 2018 prospects:
Hudson, Gomer and Gant (they had not put Waino in there ever again). How many starts will be needed for a 5th starter? 6? 7 at the most.

In the playoffs, if we get there, these are all the starters you need. Sucks without Reyes in there but it is what it is.

Martinez
Mikolas
Weaver
Flaherty

We need help on offense more than Weaver/Flaherty as a 5th starter.
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I agree on the upside but he has always had shoulder issues. Most of the time, shows up in the 2nd half.

It's just a gamble we don't have to take. We have 5th starter replacements for 2 months. It's a far bigger gamble to stay put with this offense. Trusting that Fowler/Wong will return to norms. Dejong/Molina will return to their norms quickly are way way bigger gambles.
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I guess it's possible, but let's remember a few things:

1) Reyes can't stay healthy
2) Mikolas (this version) and Flaherty both have very little history in MLB at this point
3) Weaver isn't exactly setting the world on fire
4) Mozeliak has never sold
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Honestly I’m not sure what’s out there that’s much of an upgrade for us offensively anyway. Other than the pipe dream of Machado, who can we bring in that’s markedly better than someone we already have on the roster?
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Very good points and can’t count on all of these SPs to come through. As long as the team is even a bit in the mix for a wild card spot I can’t see Mozeliak selling anything.
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I agree with Hamas and your point. I just don't see Mo doing a deal like that unless we are completely out of it by the trade deadline. Thats not going to happen so.... we are stuck here with what we have.
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Angelo is a dumbass. Manny is going to cost Reyes/Weaver/Bader or more for a 2 month rental. Maybe he finds someone to do that type of deal but I doubt it. He may find someone that can sign him long-term that Manny would want play in that city and then gets a stupid deal. Anyone that would make that deal can just buy more prospects or replacements anyway.

You can never have enough pitching is baseball dogma, and for good reason. But, as we are finding out, if you cant score runs, doesn't matter how good your pitching is, your an average team.
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Maybe the usual deal to add a bat that doesn’t seem like it would help or some broken former closer.
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John Mozeliak is like every middle aged person you'll meet when it comes to exercise.

If you're looking for a reason not to do it, you'll find one. If I don't want to go to the gym, I can always find a reason not to go to the gym. But if I really wanted to go, I'd figure a way around those reasons 9 times out of 10.

Regardless of what's happening, irrespective of what's in front of him, John Mozeliak will always look at that as a reason NOT to act. For fucks sake, he couldn't see a way clear to move Lynn last year. Or Rosenthal before he got hurt when the rumors were that there were 5 teams hot on him.

If the team's struggling, he'll say he doesn't want to sell low. If the team's been struggling and is now playing well, if only for a week, he'll say he wants to see it play out. If the team's playing well, he'll see it as a reason not to take a risk.

Moe is just naturally risk averse. It's been a benefit for him on several occasions so I'm not using it as a pure value judgment here. But it is what he is - if he can find a reason not to take a chance, then he's not going to take one.

I want folks to take a look at the best teams in the AL and the potential of some of the best teams in the NL (both for now, as is the case with the Nats, D-Backs, Dodgers and Cubs or the future with the Braves and Phillies) and try to tell me that doing very little is a viable option for this team to win a championship in the next 5 years.

It just isn't. Dicking around in the margins makes this a team that's still 82-88 wins and an early exit in October. The rosters for the best teams in this league are clearly a step beyond ours. So if we want to swim in those waters, risks have to be taken. But DeWitt doesn't really want to run with those dogs - he just wants to get the WC berth, fill the stands and hope he gets lucky. It's a hell of a lot easier than actually pursuing top-shelf talent even if it means torching $50 million on replacement level chaff like Fowler, Cecil, Leake, Gregerson and Holland.
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I have to agree with this take.

Moving Wacha now is a risk but as for the reasons DJ just laid out, is it really a risk? We know how this fucking around at the edges has worked out.

Maybe we get "hot" like we did in 2006/2011, but that doesn't seem like a sound winning strategy.
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And I know everyone's hot on Wacha now, and perhaps with good reason.

But if you look at his advanced command numbers (which are admittedly in their infancy) as well as his average pitch quality figures, he's pitching well over his head right now.

He's lost a little more velocity and he's not exactly developed a hammer curve; it's still largely a get-ahead or setup pitch. The cutter has become a solid pitch for him so that's perhaps a new 'true talent' for him. And his changeup has become a genuine out pitch for him. He's a better pitcher than he's been in the past but he's still really just a 1.5 pitch guy who's stuff isn't electric. He's a lot closer to the fine line between success and failure that his present ERA stats suggest he is, IMO.

But let's say this is the new normal for him - you really excited about paying a guy with that crazy shoulder issue of his $18+ million/season for 4-5 seasons? If that stress reaction thing in his shoulder pops up again (and the medical history of it is so short that there's no way to say it will or will not), it's less a "he'll be less effective" thing as it is a "he simply won't be able to pitch in the big leagues" thing.

There are too many red flags around Wacha with too many potentially plus arms already in the system for me to get behind spending a significant percentage of our payroll on him.

Wacha's exactly the kind of guy you should look to deal, IMO. The return for a guy who's pitching well right now with another year of control would be pretty strong. And I know nobody likes the idea of treating your 5th starter as 'just' a 5th starter, but honestly - it's just a 5th starter. Even if Reyes can't get back on the bump this year, you have Gomber and Gant that can absolutely do credible work in that role. Gomber is big league ready but just keeps getting overlooked. He'd be a gem in a lot of system, IMO. That hook of his is a legit major league out pitch and the fastball/changeup combination is't elite but it's good enough to work with that curveball for a legit 3-pitch mix that can give you 175+ quality innings. Make that the 5th arm in a rotation fronted by Martinez, Flaherty, Weaver and Mikolas and you're still in better shape than most teams.

But there's an obvious reason not to - as Hamas pointed out, there are questions marks in the rotation (there are question marks in EVERY rotation). So because there's a reason not to do it, Mozeliak won't, regardless of the reasons that exist to suggest you SHOULD do it.
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DJ brings up a good point with the big clubs right now and how the Cards can't compete with them.

The problem I see with it though, is that they can't develop hitters like those clubs can. So we have an impasse.
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You can acquire a 25 yr old HoF talent and pay the man what he's worth to help close that gap.

Or you can acknowledge that you can't hang with some teams that are not only producing hitters, but have genuine front of the rotation arms. Just throwing more high-end arms into the damn bullpen doesn't help the Cardinals move up a tier. It just makes them slightly better situated in the squishy middle (y'know, like adding Kareem Hunt to an offense helmed by Alex Smith).

It just frustrates the shit out of me when we keep 'dry powder' and don't get guys like Juan Soto signed in 2015, then 'blow it up' in the international period in 2016 but STILL don't get any high ceiling bats brought on. The year they go 'all out' they bring back Jonathan Machado as their prime return? And then come up short on Luis Robert.

The Cardinals have taken a penny-wise, pound foolish approach to developing bats in-house. They've focused too many times on sign-ability in the draft and pissed away their big foray into the international market by once again engaging in half-measures. But at least they have Jose Adolis Garcia regressing in AAA at 25 yrs old, so that's nice.

This is a bit of a question of arbitrage. If you know you can't develop hitters (and lord, I hope they know this) but have a seemingly limitless supply of pitchers, maybe you ought go ahead and move some of those pitchers for the hitters you lack. Yes, playing to your strengths is a wortwhile endeavor but eventually you reach the point of diminishing returns and I think we're nearing that point. It's time to reallocate some resources to their areas of greatest need.
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