Well, you guys think I'm a nut... So here it is, the data you've all been waiting so patiently for. I've included the Excel Workbook I used. the 20##P tabs are punting stats, the 20##D are defensive stats with correlations to punting, and the 20##WL tabs are W/L records with correlations to punting. I even made a sheet with all the glorious data in one spot.
There is no strong correlation between having a good punter and how good an NFL defense is and there is no strong correlation between having a good punter and win percentage. So, next time you want to defend a contract to a punter for millions per year, I'm going to tell you that you're an idiot. So long as a punter is NFL caliber, he's simply good enough.
Below are the correlation coefficients. I'll leave it to you folks to pour through the rest of it on your own.
Spoiler!
2017
Correlation Coefficient of Yds/G to Punter Rank (Net Ave) -0.194
Correlation Coefficient of Yds/G to Net Ave 0.085
Correlation Coefficient of Yds/G to Punter Rank (IN 20) 0.028
Correlation Coefficient of Yds/G to IN 20 -0.053
Correlation Coefficient of Pts/G to Punter Rank (Net Ave) -0.152
Correlation Coefficient of Pts/G to Net Ave 0.073
Correlation Coefficient of Pts/G to Punter Rank (IN 20) -0.035
Correlation Coefficient of Pts/G to IN 20 -0.020
Correlation Coefficient of W% to Punter Rank (Net Ave) -0.027
Correlation Coefficient of W% to Net Ave 0.132
Correlation Coefficient of W% to Punter Rank (IN 20) 0.022
Correlation Coefficient of W% to IN 20 -0.006
2016
Correlation Coefficient of Yds/G to Punter Rank (Net Ave) -0.209
Correlation Coefficient of Yds/G to Net Ave 0.180
Correlation Coefficient of Yds/G to Punter Rank (IN 20) 0.209
Correlation Coefficient of Yds/G to IN 20 -0.165
Correlation Coefficient of Pts/G to Punter Rank (Net Ave) 0.096
Correlation Coefficient of Pts/G to Net Ave -0.014
Correlation Coefficient of Pts/G to Punter Rank (IN 20) 0.256
Correlation Coefficient of Pts/G to IN 20 -0.147
Correlation Coefficient of W% to Punter Rank (Net Ave) -0.314
Correlation Coefficient of W% to Net Ave 0.163
Correlation Coefficient of W% to Punter Rank (IN 20) -0.140
Correlation Coefficient of W% to IN 20 0.041
2015
Correlation Coefficient of Yds/G to Punter Rank (Net Ave) -0.266
Correlation Coefficient of Yds/G to Net Ave 0.299
Correlation Coefficient of Yds/G to Punter Rank (IN 20) -0.220
Correlation Coefficient of Yds/G to IN 20 0.202
Correlation Coefficient of Pts/G to Punter Rank (Net Ave) -0.236
Correlation Coefficient of Pts/G to Net Ave 0.259
Correlation Coefficient of Pts/G to Punter Rank (IN 20) -0.116
Correlation Coefficient of Pts/G to IN 20 0.054
Correlation Coefficient of W% to Punter Rank (Net Ave) 0.231
Correlation Coefficient of W% to Net Ave -0.323
Correlation Coefficient of W% to Punter Rank (IN 20) 0.280
Correlation Coefficient of W% to IN 20 -0.199
2014
Correlation Coefficient of Yds/G to Punter Rank (Net Ave) -0.161
Correlation Coefficient of Yds/G to Net Ave 0.131
Correlation Coefficient of Yds/G to Punter Rank (IN 20) 0.207
Correlation Coefficient of Yds/G to IN 20 -0.156
Correlation Coefficient of Pts/G to Punter Rank (Net Ave) -0.114
Correlation Coefficient of Pts/G to Net Ave 0.060
Correlation Coefficient of Pts/G to Punter Rank (IN 20) 0.340
Correlation Coefficient of Pts/G to IN 20 -0.296
Correlation Coefficient of W% to Punter Rank (Net Ave) 0.128
Correlation Coefficient of W% to Net Ave -0.046
Correlation Coefficient of W% to Punter Rank (IN 20) -0.126
Correlation Coefficient of W% to IN 20 0.102
2013
Correlation Coefficient of Yds/G to Punter Rank (Net Ave) 0.102
Correlation Coefficient of Yds/G to Net Ave -0.091
Correlation Coefficient of Yds/G to Punter Rank (IN 20) -0.120
Correlation Coefficient of Yds/G to IN 20 0.123
Correlation Coefficient of Pts/G to Punter Rank (Net Ave) 0.394
Correlation Coefficient of Pts/G to Net Ave -0.396
Correlation Coefficient of Pts/G to Punter Rank (IN 20) 0.156
Correlation Coefficient of Pts/G to IN 20 -0.129
Correlation Coefficient of W% to Punter Rank (Net Ave) -0.234
Correlation Coefficient of W% to Net Ave 0.276
Correlation Coefficient of W% to Punter Rank (IN 20) -0.138
Correlation Coefficient of W% to IN 20 0.122
Originally Posted by staylor26:
I’m the internet tough guy? That’s ironic considering what you followed that up with. This is the second time I’ve heard you talk about fighting after you got your feelings hurt on CP, hence why I’m calling you a pussy. Who lets a stranger on a football forum get them so butthurt?
You talking like you’re the baddest mother****er on the planet (no pun intended) is absolutely hilarious though. Real badasses know there’s always somebody badder. That’s how I know you’re full of shit.
I'm not butthurt, I just think you're a stupid motherfucker that talks out of his ass. The only one really upset is you, which is why you continue to drag this out and try to get the last word in. Who am I asking to fight? If I'm such a pussy, I'll give you my address to come say it to my face. Would that make you feel all warm and fuzzy inside? [Reply]
I didn't read thru the thread but I can tell you that punter from texas can win a game for you. When you drop 27 punts in one game on the 1 yard line your defense should get at minimum 3 safetys. 6-0 wins every time. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin:
I didn't read thru the thread but I can tell you that punter from texas can win a game for you. When you drop 27 punts in one game on the 1 yard line your defense should get at minimum 3 safetys. 6-0 wins every time.
Hey, 27 in one game? I might have to change my theory. [Reply]
I've skipped a lot of posts in here because of all the shade being thrown, but I was just wondering if a punter has as much value as a holder for kicks as he does for punting.
I doubt there are stats correlating missed kicks with blame on the kicker/holder/snapper though to be able to dig into this? [Reply]
Originally Posted by Chargem:
I've skipped a lot of posts in here because of all the shade being thrown, but I was just wondering if a punter has as much value as a holder for kicks as he does for punting.
I doubt there are stats correlating missed kicks with blame on the kicker/holder/snapper though to be able to dig into this?
I think that would be a film dig kind of deal and would be really hard to pull off. Not only that, some teams have a backup QB hold, some have the P hold. You'd be getting a mixed bag there. I wouldn't expect there to be anything significant there, but that's me just saying that based on what I observe and nothing concrete. [Reply]
Originally Posted by kccrow:
I think that would be a film dig kind of deal and would be really hard to pull off. Not only that, some teams have a backup QB hold, some have the P hold. You'd be getting a mixed bag there. I wouldn't expect there to be anything significant there, but that's me just saying that based on what I observe and nothing concrete.
Yeah I knew it would be a pain to get any decent data. I was just thinking my gut feeling is more kicks get missed because of the snapper/holder combo than the kicker himself. [Reply]
I'm not sure those are the right things to be measuring.
To really determine the effectiveness of a good punter you'd have to measure the effect he has on the defense, not directly correlating a team with good defense to the quality of their punter.
Does having a top five punter in the league v. a replacement level punter keep points off the board, does it make teams have to drive more of the field to score?
A good defense doesn't need a great punter to be good, but how much better does having a great punter make a good defense? That's the question that needs to be asked.
Anecdotally, I would point to the Texas v. Mizzou bowl game last year for what an elite punter can do to a teams offense. If you want to tell me that Mizzou starting over 1/2 of their drives inside their own 15 yard line didn't have an affect on that game I have a bridge in New York I'd like to sell ya. [Reply]
Originally Posted by ntexascardfan:
I'm not sure those are the right things to be measuring.
To really determine the effectiveness of a good punter you'd have to measure the effect he has on the defense, not directly correlating a team with good defense to the quality of their punter.
Does having a top five punter in the league v. a replacement level punter keep points off the board, does it make teams have to drive more of the field to score?
A good defense doesn't need a great punter to be good, but how much better does having a great punter make a good defense? That's the question that needs to be asked.
Anecdotally, I would point to the Texas v. Mizzou bowl game last year for what an elite punter can do to a teams offense. If you want to tell me that Mizzou starting over 1/2 of their drives inside their own 15 yard line didn't have an affect on that game I have a bridge in New York I'd like to sell ya.
I think you need to look at the data and your question will be answered... I'm not getting into another argument over this because someone can't read it. [Reply]
Originally Posted by kccrow:
I think you need to look at the data and your question will be answered... I'm not getting into another argument over this because someone can't read it.
It's a poor presentation and what you presented doesn't answer the questions I posted above. I'm a data analyst for a living.
Post your data up in a google drive spreadsheet. [Reply]
Originally Posted by ntexascardfan:
It's a poor presentation and what you presented doesn't answer the questions I posted above. I'm a data analyst for a living.
Post your data up in a google drive spreadsheet.
I posted the excel spreadsheet in the only format this forum accepts, which is 97-2003 xls. You can open it in any later version and save it. [Reply]
Just so you know, I did correlate the number of punts inside the 20 versus points per game and yards per game by defenses. The data you want is there. [Reply]
kccrow 04-21-2018, 03:09 PM
This message has been deleted by kccrow.
Reason: Basically a repost of previous information, irrelevant.
Originally Posted by kccrow:
Just so you know, I did correlate the number of punts inside the 20 versus points per game and yards per game by defenses. The data you want is there.
No, it's not...because it's not answering the question I posed.
Which is how much better does a top 5 punter v. a replacement level punter effect the game.
Simplistically posting points and ypg and then the correlation between that and the number of times a punter puts the ball inside the 20 is a poor metric.
A very basic take down of that metric is the fact that teams with poor offenses will tend to have a higher usage rate of their punter, giving that punter, regardless of his quality, more chances to knock down punts inside the 20 yard line.
The Jets had the most punts in the NFL in 2017 and the 3rd most punts knocked down inside the 20. The Jets also had one of the poorest offenses in the NFL in 2017. The Jets also had one of the lowest % of punts inside the 20 in the NFL last season.
Your metrics are way too basic to be evaluating the impact a great punter has on a team. Which, is why the formula needs to be built to determine the effect that a great punter over replacement level has on a team. You can't directly marry punting average/IN 20, net, etc., to defensive rankings and call it a day.
A more compelling measurement would be the % of punts inside the 20 yard line. From a high level 8 of the top 10 teams in the NFL last year in that statistic were in the top 15 in the league in defensive points per game. 6 of the top 10 in PPG were also top 10 in % of total punts inside the 20.
You need to determine how much better or worse a team would be with a great punter. Does having a great punter mean instead of giving up 21.3 points a game the team now gives up 20.5? If so, what value does that give to the teams over the course of a season.
Your simplistic tables and expression of the statistics don't get the job done. [Reply]
Originally Posted by ntexascardfan:
No, it's not...because it's not answering the question I posed.
Which is how much better does a top 5 punter v. a replacement level punter effect the game.
Simplistically posting points and ypg and then the correlation between that and the number of times a punter puts the ball inside the 20 is a poor metric.
A very basic take down of that metric is the fact that teams with poor offenses will tend to have a higher usage rate of their punter, giving that punter, regardless of his quality, more chances to knock down punts inside the 20 yard line.
The Jets had the most punts in the NFL in 2017 and the 3rd most punts knocked down inside the 20. The Jets also had one of the poorest offenses in the NFL in 2017. The Jets also had one of the lowest % of punts inside the 20 in the NFL last season.
Your metrics are way too basic to be evaluating the impact a great punter has on a team. Which, is why the formula needs to be built to determine the effect that a great punter over replacement level has on a team. You can't directly marry punting average/IN 20, net, etc., to defensive rankings and call it a day.
A more compelling measurement would be the % of punts inside the 20 yard line. From a high level 8 of the top 10 teams in the NFL last year in that statistic were in the top 15 in the league in defensive points per game. 6 of the top 10 in PPG were also top 10 in % of total punts inside the 20.
You need to determine how much better or worse a team would be with a great punter. Does having a great punter mean instead of giving up 21.3 points a game the team now gives up 20.5? If so, what value does that give to the teams over the course of a season.
Your simplistic tables and expression of the statistics don't get the job done.
For starters, great idea. However, you've made absolutely false statements on rankings for 2017.
Here is PTS/G and %IN 20 Rank Sorted Low to High
Spoiler!
Team Pts/G %IN 20 Rank
Minnesota Vikings 15.8 8
Jacksonville Jaguars 16.8 23
Los Angeles Chargers 17 14
Philadelphia Eagles 18.4 28
New England Patriots 18.5 6
Baltimore Ravens 18.9 2
Pittsburgh Steelers 19.2 9
Atlanta Falcons 19.7 17
Chicago Bears 20 29
Carolina Panthers 20.4 20
New Orleans Saints 20.4 5
Los Angeles Rams 20.6 3
Dallas Cowboys 20.8 1
Seattle Seahawks 20.8 26
Kansas City Chiefs 21.2 4
Cincinnati Bengals 21.8 15
Tennessee Titans 22.2 12
Buffalo Bills 22.4 18
Arizona Cardinals 22.6 25
Oakland Raiders 23.3 10
Detroit Lions 23.5 19
Denver Broncos 23.9 27
San Francisco 49ers 23.9 7
New York Jets 23.9 21
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23.9 13
Green Bay Packers 24 31
Washington Redskins 24.2 11
New York Giants 24.2 32
Miami Dolphins 24.6 16
Indianapolis Colts 25.2 23
Cleveland Browns 25.6 30
Houston Texans 27.2 22
Here is YDS/G and %IN 20 Ranks Sorted Low to High
Team Yds/G %IN 20 Rank
Spoiler!
Minnesota Vikings 275.9 8
Jacksonville Jaguars 286.1 23
Denver Broncos 290 27
Philadelphia Eagles 306.5 28
Pittsburgh Steelers 306.9 9
Arizona Cardinals 310.9 25
Carolina Panthers 317.1 20
Dallas Cowboys 318.1 1
Atlanta Falcons 318.4 17
Chicago Bears 319.1 29
Seattle Seahawks 323.2 26
Baltimore Ravens 325.1 2
Tennessee Titans 328 12
Cleveland Browns 328.1 30
Los Angeles Chargers 328.4 14
Miami Dolphins 335.7 16
New Orleans Saints 336.5 5
Cincinnati Bengals 339.1 15
Los Angeles Rams 339.5 3
Houston Texans 346.6 22
Washington Redskins 347.9 11
Green Bay Packers 348.9 31
Oakland Raiders 350.1 10
San Francisco 49ers 351.6 7
New York Jets 352.2 21
Buffalo Bills 355.1 18
Detroit Lions 355.8 19
Kansas City Chiefs 365.1 4
New England Patriots 366 6
Indianapolis Colts 367.1 23
New York Giants 373.2 32
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 378.1 13
I also ran the correlations on PTS/G to %IN 20 and YDS/G to %IN 20 and they are here:
Spoiler!
2017
Correlation Coefficient of % IN 20 to YDS/G -0.042
Correlation Coefficient of % IN 20 to Pts/G -0.322
2016
Correlation Coefficient of % IN 20 to YDS/G -0.129
Correlation Coefficient of % IN 20 to Pts/G -0.127
2015
Correlation Coefficient of % IN 20 to YDS/G 0.092
Correlation Coefficient of % IN 20 to Pts/G -0.067
2014
Correlation Coefficient of % IN 20 to YDS/G -0.212
Correlation Coefficient of % IN 20 to Pts/G -0.489
2013
Correlation Coefficient of % IN 20 to YDS/G 0.129
Correlation Coefficient of % IN 20 to Pts/G -0.256