That sounds great man. Thanks for all the work you put into this write up. I've been trying to come up with best case scenarios like this but I don't know enough about the NFL's salary cap. And I've been researching draft prospects lately.

Could you do one in a scenario where we sign Chris Jones? Not sure how much he will command and how much that affects the salary cap. With Watkins out, I'm guessing we draft a WR somewhere.
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Really like this one. If the Chiefs did get a single high pick for Jones, I would be so tempted to trade back, but at the same time this could be the Chiefs last chance to pick in the top 20 for years.
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I see Dobbins pretty much the same way but won't he be available in the 2nd? Maybe the last pick in the 2nd is too risky to wait?
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As far as mocks that involve losing Jones go, that’s pretty good.

I’d be surprised if they pay up for Ogbah as opposed to maybe another CB or something. Reason being, you’ve got Clark, Okafor, KPass, and Speaks under contract already for 2020. If they believe in Speaks whatsoever, I think they’ll roll with those 4 as their top guys unless they can’t pass on a DE in the draft somewhere.
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So, I’m not sure I’ve got this right.

The 32 pick is a 4 year 11.5M contract?

I think that’s what I’m reading. That still ends up fairly expensive for a Rookie RB. I mean if he ends up half of what your scouting report says it’s cheap as fuck. But he better produce early at those numbers.

https://overthecap.com/draft/

Overall I can’t find anything wrong with your offseason.
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I like it.

It covers a lot of ground that the Chiefs need to do during the offseason.

I think Mike Pennel, Stefen Wisniewski, and Reggie Ragland will be more expensive than veteran minimum deals. We could still sign them, but it will require a little more money.

Watched the 2018 game of the Chiefs against 49ers and it was fun watching Kareem Hunt work. I've thought that KC could get by with what they have at RB, but it would be nice to have a top notch RB like Dobbins.

I have to admit I don't know anything about CB Troy Pride or ILB Nick Kwiatkoski. I will have to go look at them. One reason why these threads are interesting, it brings up players you may not have watched.
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Maybe the KC punter for next year, Joseph Charlton, South Carolina.
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Top-51 contract effect and the fact that the salary cap only cares about year-1 in the current year. Just because a 1st round pick is a 4-year 11.5 million deal, the salaries for the 14th pick and 32nd pick, respectively, are $3,099,924 and $2,103,733 in year one. Those are then reduced by the top-51 effect, which I'll discuss next.

The CBA, as it is currently written, only counts the top-51 contracts against the cap. The effect is that some rookie deals push guys out of the top-51 or replace guys that were in the top 51.

Under the current CBA, draft picks are on a wage scale based on selection number. The total value of the team's selections in terms of year-1 salaries is considered the "rookie pool." In this scenario, the Chiefs would have a rookie pool of $8,164,794

Generally, you deduct from the rookie pool the number of draft picks multiplied by the rookie minimum (what UDFAs must make at minimum which is 510,000 for 2020). Every draft pick makes more than the rookie minimum by a small amount (reportedly 532,158 for 2020). This is because it is assumed that players on rookie deals will push an equal number of players out of the top 51. The dedution would then be 6*$510,000 or $3,060,000.

This top-51 effect then creates necessary draft cap space of $8,164,794-$3,060,000 = $5,104,794.

In my scenario, this leaves the Chiefs with "approximately" 3.2 million in space.

That said, this is "slightly flawed" quick math because that number should be higher. That's because re-signings and new signings are also likely pushing guys down out of the top-51 so the value of the guys being pushed out needs to be added back onto the 3.2 million in space. A quick estimate would be to add at least $495,000 for every player re-signed/added that pushes a guy out of the top-51 because that was last year's rookie minimum. I would realistically add 1 million based on a final 53-man roster. So, your real cap space going into the season should be somewhere around 4.2 million.

Hope this helps.
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Here's a short lesson on the Watkins extension/restructure.

So, in Watkins case, you are extending him to restructure without flat-out asking him to take a pay cut (it happens). His 2020 salary is $13,750,000. Of that, the veteran minimum for a player with 4-6 accrued seasons is $820,000 (Watkins has 6 accrued seasons). This means that $13,750,000-820,000 = $12,930,000 is allowed to be converted to bonus money in lieu of salary and spread over the remaining years of the contract.

In Watkins' case, I extend him for 2 years with salaries of $7.0m in 2021 and 8.0m in 2022. I take $12.0m of the possible $12.93m convertible salary in 2020 and covert it to a signing bonus and add another signing bonus of $6.0m to it because of the extension. This is a new total signing bonus of $18.0m which can be spread over the life of the contract (now 3 years).

Watkins retains $1,750,000 in 2020 salary and his $7.0m in signing bonus from his previous contract (he also has a 250,000 workout bonus I left in tact). His new bonus counts $6.0m per year. Adding the 6.0m to the original amounts creates a 2020 year with $1.75m in salary, $13.0m in signing bonus, and 0.25m in workout bonus for $15.0m against the cap. His 2021 figure is $7.0m salary and $6.0m bonus for $13.0m against the cap. His 2022 figure is $8.0m salary and $6.0m bonus for $14.0m against the cap.

When I stated a 2-year, $21.0m extension, that includes $7.0m salary in 2021, $8.0m salary in 2022, and $6.0m in new bonus money.


The Chiefs did something similar with Anthony Hitchens this year. They took the maximum they could of Hitchens' salary, which was $5,695,000, and converted it to a signing bonus. This left him with a $805,000 salary for 2019. Anthony earned the same amount of money this year, but the Chiefs were able to spread that $5.695 million over the 4 remaining years of his contract (2019-2022) at $1,423,750 per year. This is the reason his bonus against the cap rose from $2.8m annually in 2018 to the current figure of $4,223,750. Obviously, his total cap hit year-over-year increased by the 1.4x m amount.

The Mahomes deal I outlined is much more complicated overall, but one day soon I'll write it out for you.
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I'd like to see us take an interior offensive lineman a bit early. Natane Muti is an interesting guy out of Fresno State who I think would bring some nastiness to our line...and I think he still has a ton of potential to tap into. The question with him would be if he can stay healthy.

I'd take someone like him at the end of the second and would love to take someone like Bryce Hall at the end of the first.
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How do you feel about Akeem Davis-Gaither? He looks an awful lot like Darius Leonard to me. Would be a major upgrade at WLB and nickel/dime LB, I think.

Undersized but great closing speed, violent tackler, good in coverage.
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The league is certainly trending to those hybrid safety/linebacker types. I think that guy for us right now is Sorensen in alot of spots. I think it hurts run defense a tad, but it's a benefit. A guy like Simmons out of Clemson is more of a Leonard to me because both are a solid 15 pounds heavier than Davis-Gaither. If he can bulk up and maintain that play speed, I don't have an issue with it. The guys I don't like early, like Patrick Queen and Kenneth Murray are guys like that too but they have nowhere near the talent Simmons does and neither does Davis-Gaither. I just don't think they are a player you spend a 1st round pick on. A third-round pick? Absolutely not an issue. I think you can develop these guys and use them. The Chiefs drafted O'Daniel to be that type of guy, but it just doesn't look like he's panning out.
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So playing off the old Nickelodeon show "Clarissa Explains It All," here is my explanation, as best I can, on the Quarterback 5th-year option with extension...

So, this is complicated but it happened with Goff and Wentz and is likely to happen with Mahomes as well. Both players had their 5th-year option picked up and then they were extended for 4 years but this extension also involved the restructuring of the option year.

Mahomes is currently under contract for 2020 with a base salary of $735,000, prorated signing bonus of $2,521,538, a roster bonus of $1,969,905, and total guaranteed money of $2,704,905 (base salary plus roster bonus). When his option year is picked up, Mahomes will be on the books for the amount equal to the transition tender for his position which should be approximately $24.4m in 2021. That is, at least, until that gets restructured.

So, to get to the confusion... What happened with both Goff and Wentz is that the team extended them for 4 years beyond the 5th option year which creates an overall contract length of 6 years. In both cases, the rookie deal roster bonus was rolled into the new signing bonus. Goff received a $25.0m signing bonus and Wentz a $16.4m bonus. I pegged Mahomes at 10% above Goff or $27.5m. This bonus can be spread over the length of the contract for up to 5 years. This means that for the first 5 years of the deal, Mahomes bonus would be prorated at $5.5m per year. In 2020, you would add this to his $2.52m current proration for total bonus money against the cap of just over $8.0m. This brings his 2020 total cap to just north of $8.75m, which is an effective increase of about $3.5m (he currently counts $5.22m).

More confusion... Both Goff and Wentz received roster bonuses throughout the 5 added years of their deal, which trigger annually. Usually, they are set to trigger the 5th day of each new league year. They don't count towards salary cap calculations if the team cuts the player before it triggers. However, if the team allows them to trigger they become fully guaranteed. Goff had significantly higher roster bonus triggers because the Eagles chose to use another tool to spread the money out that the Rams did not, and that is an Option bonus. An option bonus is exactly the same as a signing bonus, but it triggers in a future year and is spread out in the same fashion that a signing bonus is. That said, a team isn't on the hook if they don't let the option trigger, much in the same way as a roster bonus (they cut the player). In 2020, Wentz had a $30.0m option bonus trigger. This is prorated at $6.0m per year over the next 5 years of the deal. I see KC using a similar approach with Mahomes. This has the effect of lowering the cost of the middle 4 years of the deal over what it would be if all that money was put purely into a signing bonus and applied only to the first 5 years. I used $33.0m as Mahomes' option bonus. This creates bonus money in 2020 of $5.5m (+his existing $2.52), 2021-2024 of $12.1m, and 2025 of $6.6m for cap calculations.

The Eagles and Rams put more money into annual roster bonuses than I see KC doing with Mahomes. Either way, the teams can guarantee any portion of base salary and/or roster bonus money. Both the Rams and Eagles guaranteed both salary and roster bonus in the first year of the contract extension (year 2 of the actual overall deal). The Eagles also guaranteed the roster bonus only in the following year. This means that it doesn't matter whether or not that bonus triggers, it's fully guaranteed at signing anyhow. That said, the roster bonus is paid at the trigger rather than weekly as salary, which is more the point of it and benefits the player rather than the team. The team is just as well putting the money into base salary because they aren't protecting themselves, which is the purpose of the trigger, to begin with. I had the Chiefs, in my contract simulation, fully guaranteeing the first two years of the extension in the same way the Eagles did except for total value instead of roster bonus only in year 2.

Overall, I had Mahomes' deal eclipse Aaron Rodgers in all real categories and structured like Wentz.

In 2020, he'd have $735,000 base salary, $8,021,538 in signing bonus money, and guaranteed salary of $735,000 with total cap of $8,756,538
In 2021, he'd have $11.1m base salary, $12.1m in combined signing and option bonus money, a $6.0m roster bonus, guaranteed salary of $17.1m and a total cap of $29.2m
In 2022, he'd have $19.0m base salary, $12.1m in combined signing and option bonus money, a $3.0m roster bonus, guaranteed salary of $22.0m and a total cap of $34.1m
In 2023, he'd have $23.0m base salary, $12.1m in combined signing and option bonus money, a $1.5m roster bonus, and a total cap of $36.6m
In 2024, he'd have $20.0m base salary, $12.1m in combined signing and option bonus money, a $5.0m roster bonus, and a total cap of $37.1m
In 2025, he'd have $25.0m base salary, $6.6m in option bonus money, a $5.0m roster bonus, and a total cap of $36.6m

The reality of this deal is that it becomes a 6-year, $182,356,538 deal with $69,856,538 fully guaranteed at signing,$123,356,538 in potential guarantees (once the option triggers roughly 100.3m, 2.52m in current bonus, and annual roster bonuses totaling 20.5m).

I won't necessarily be correct but it's probably a good primer in how the contract will end up looking based on what's been happening recently with QBs coming off rookie deals. Basically, the deal uses all avenues of spreading money. There could end up being added workout bonuses or roster bonuses that trigger based on games played as well as unlikely to be earned incentives worked in. I don't think the deal will eclipse $200 million but it's going to at least be in the neighborhood I have estimated.
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That's interesting Crow, if the cap rises as predicted with the new CBA and gambling money, I can see the Chiefs only having 2 tough years in the middle of the contract before the cap rises to the point that Mahomes contract is no longer a significant portion of it.
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