https://theathletic.com/2304699/2021...ense-rankings/
Ranking NFL playoff defenses from 1-14: Which team should you trust the most?
by
Sheil Kapadia
Originally Posted by :
Which NFL team has the best defense going into the playoffs? Here’s a ranking from one to 14. And in case you missed it, we went over the offense in a previous installment.
1. Los Angeles Rams
Their defense is built around two Hall of Fame-caliber talents — Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey — who are at the peak of their powers. Donald was dominant on a weekly basis in the regular season, and Ramsey was a true shutdown corner. Every team wants to limit explosive pass plays, but no team actually did that better than the Rams. They ranked first league-wide in DVOA on deep passing attempts, according to Football Outsiders. They allowed a league-low 13 deep completions all season. Because of Donald, the Rams don’t have to blitz at a high rate. And no defense was more effective (Expected Points Added per snap) on plays where they rushed four or fewer. On the back end, as The Athletic’s Robert Mays outlined, the Rams play a lot with two deep safeties. They were the league’s best zone team (EPA per play), according to Sports Info Solutions’ charting. While the Steelers’ defense finished first in overall DVOA, the Rams were first in weighted DVOA, which factors in later-season play more than early-season play. In other words, no defense is playing better than the Rams going into the playoffs.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
Their defensive success starts up front. The Steelers’ pressure rate of 33.3 percent was tops in the league. T.J. Watt led the league with 15 sacks and 41 quarterback hits. Stephon Tuitt (11 sacks, 25 QB hits) and Cameron Heyward (four sacks, 18 QB hits) shouldn’t be overlooked either. The Steelers had the third-highest blitz rate during the regular season, but the key was they didn’t have to rely on sending extra rushers to be effective. Pittsburgh ranked third (EPA per snap) on plays when it rushed four or fewer. On the back end, the Steelers are not static. They mix in both man and zone and will show single-high and two-deep safety looks. They don’t have the most talented cornerback group, but the Steelers are deep and will play dime with six defensive backs. Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick is one of the league’s best young defensive players. If Pittsburgh makes a run in the AFC, it will likely be on the back of this defense.
3. New Orleans Saints
New Orleans can swarm the field with defensive backs and adjust to its opponents’ strengths. The Saints ranked fifth in percentage of snaps in dime. New Orleans played the highest percentage of man coverage in the league, but they gave their corners help. No team played more two-man (man coverage with two deep safeties) than the Saints. Up front, New Orleans is led by Cam Jordan, David Onyemata and Trey Hendrickson. But they ranked just 22nd in pass rush win rate. New Orleans is most effective when it can force opposing quarterbacks to hold the ball, allowing its pass rush to get home. The Saints finished the season second in defensive DVOA, but this is a highly volatile group. The Saints had the highest variance of any defense. On their best day, they can match up with the league’s high-powered offenses. On their worst day, they can get lit up.
4. Washington Football Team
Defense carried Washington to the postseason. Their success relied on a dominant front and a heavy dose of zone coverage. Led by Chase Young, Montez Sweat, Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne, Washington ranked third in pass rush win rate. They were in the middle of the pack in terms of blitz frequency, but no defense was more effective (EPA per snap) when blitzing than Washington. Washington doesn’t have a lot of big names in the secondary, but they were well-coached and ranked third in efficiency when playing zone coverage. Washington ranked third in defensive DVOA and is capable of putting together dominant performances. As part of this exercise, I looked at the top-100 single-game defensive performances in 2020. Washington was responsible for eight of them, tying them with the Rams and Steelers for most in the league.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Todd Bowles’ defense mixed in blitzing, zone coverage and two-deep safety looks to produce to a No. 5 DVOA ranking. The Buccaneers ranked fifth in blitz frequency and sixth in blitz effectiveness. But Tampa will be playing its wild-card game without linebacker Devin White, and White has been a big part of their blitz schemes. He’s second on the team with nine sacks. Up front, the Bucs are led by Jason Pierre-Paul, Shaq Barrett and Ndamukong Suh. They finished fifth in pass rush win rate and first in rushing DVOA. Per Football Outsiders, only the Saints were a higher-variance defense than Tampa. They can look dominant at times but are also capable of being exposed.
6. Baltimore Ravens
No defensive coordinator blitzes more than Wink Martindale. But those blitzes weren’t nearly as effective this year. The Ravens ranked 19th in EPA per snap when they rushed five or more defenders; last year they were first. There’s a case to be made for less blitzing from Martindale. The Ravens held up well when they rushed four or fewer, ranking second in EPA per snap. The most fun part about the Ravens’ defense is their ability to punch the ball loose. Baltimore’s 25 forced fumbles were not only first in 2020 but tied for the most of any defense in the past five seasons. The Ravens finished ninth in defensive DVOA, but they were not great down the stretch, finishing 15th in weighted DVOA. Baltimore appears to be getting healthy at the right time, and this group still has a high ceiling.
7. Buffalo Bills
Buffalo’s defense finished the season ranked 12th in DVOA, but the Bills were eighth in weighted DVOA, indicating that they were playing their best football down the stretch. Part of that had to do with getting healthier with players like linebacker Matt Milano returning. Up front, the Bills want to be aggressive. They blitzed at the seventh-highest rate. Buffalo didn’t have a single player produce more than five sacks, but that’s misleading. The Bills ranked second in pass rush win rate, behind only the Steelers. In the back end, Buffalo will mix things up, but the Bills lean toward zone coverage and two-deep safety looks. This is a well-coached unit with a ball-hawking secondary that features Tre’Davious White, Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer. The Bills produced turnovers on 15.4 of their opponents’ possessions, which ranked second to only Miami.
8. Indianapolis Colts
They don’t do any one thing at an elite level but do pretty much everything well. The Colts’ defense was one of five league-wide to finish in the top 10 both against the run and the pass. Indianapolis is a big Cover-2 (zone coverage with two deep safeties and five underneath defenders) team. Overall, the Colts played zone coverage at the fourth-highest rate. Up front, the Colts relied on a four-man pass rush led by DeForest Buckner, Justin Houston and Denico Autry. Only the Chargers blitzed less often than Indianapolis during the regular season. Darius Leonard is one of the NFL’s best linebackers, slot corner Kenny Moore is one of the league’s most underrated players, and veteran Xavier Rhodes bounced back after a down 2019. The Colts don’t go wild schematically. They do what they do, recognize its strengths and weaknesses and try not to overcomplicate things so their players can play fast.
9. Chicago Bears
The strength of their defense was supposed to be up front, but the Bears finished just 25th in pass rush win rate. Having said that, in a single-game playoff format, Chicago has players up front who can take over. Khalil Mack had nine sacks during the regular season, and Akiem Hicks led the team with 21 QB hits. Chuck Pagano counts on the front four to get home. The Bears blitzed at the fourth-lowest rate in the league. The traditional statistics might not reflect an especially impressive defense, but the Bears finished eighth in DVOA in part because no team faced a harder schedule of opposing offenses. On the back end, the Bears will mix up coverages, but they were better in man (ninth in EPA per snap) than zone (25th).
10. Green Bay Packers
Can this defense be good enough to get them to the Super Bowl? Green Bay is talented but ranked 17th in defensive DVOA during the regular season. Za’Darius Smith had another strong year with 12.5 sacks and 23 QB hits, but the Packers were 20th in pass rush win rate. Mike Pettine’s strategy is based on limiting explosive pass plays, and for the most part Green Bay did that. They allowed 18 downfield (20 yards or more) completions, which was tied for fourth fewest. The Packers played a higher percentage of dime than any other defense, and they played zone at the third-highest rate. The Packers have a lot of nice players, but they didn’t show a high ceiling during the regular season. Among the top-100 defensive performances during the regular season, the Packers were responsible for just one — the fewest of any playoff team.
11. Seattle Seahawks
Jamal Adams is expected to be a game-time decision for the Seahawks in the first round. How much does that matter? In 12 games with Adams, the Seahawks’ performance translated to the 10th-ranked defense. In four games without him, it translated to the 28th-ranked defense. Obviously, we’re talking about a small sample, and there are other factors at play like who else was available, opponents’ strength, etc. But those numbers suggest not having Adams would be a pretty huge deal. In the first half of the season, the Seahawks ranked 27th in EPA per snap. From Weeks 10 to 17, they ranked seventh. Of course, it helped to be facing three NFC East teams during that stretch. Seattle tried to help its pass rush by blitzing at a higher rate (11th league-wide) than it usually does. But the Seahawks still had issues pressuring opposing quarterbacks, ranking 23rd in pass rush win rate. In terms of coverages, they played zone at the second-highest rate, although they mixed in a lot of two-deep safety looks with their usual Cover-3 (a three-deep zone with four underneath defenders). The Seahawks are not a lockdown defense. If Adams is healthy, they’re a lot better than they were earlier in the season. If he’s not, they could be in trouble.
12. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs don’t need their defense to be elite. They just need it to be good enough for a three-game Super Bowl run. During the regular season, Kansas City ranked 22nd in DVOA; the Chiefs were 14th last season. Kansas City played the fewest snaps of single-high safety in the league. They were another team that liked to flood the field with defensive backs, playing the third-highest percentage of dime. Chris Jones and Frank Clark are capable of taking over games, but Kansas City ranked 18th in pass rush win rate. The Chiefs will once again count on defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to cook up special game plans to maximize their talent and mask their weaknesses.
13. Cleveland Browns
It’s unclear at this time whether they will get Denzel Ward back for the first round. In 12 games with Ward this season, the Browns performed like the 11th-ranked defense. In four games without him, they performed like the 31st-ranked defense, based on EPA per play. It’s a small sample, and there were other factors at play like who else was injured and strength of opponent, but the Browns don’t have a talented secondary, and Ward is one of the best players on their entire roster. They need him. Cleveland tries to maximize its numbers in coverage by blitzing at the third-lowest rate and playing a high percentage of zone. When they had to play man, the Browns struggled, ranking 27th in EPA per snap. They also struggled against downfield passes, ranking 29th in DVOA. The Browns’ best chance for success is having Myles Garrett (12 sacks, 18 QB hits) take over a game. But this defense ranked 25th in DVOA, and the Browns are going to have to count on their offense to win in the playoffs.
14. Tennessee Titans
Just about the only good thing this defense did during the regular season was produce takeaways. Tennessee got a turnover on 13.7 percent of opponents’ possessions, which ranked seventh. But you can’t always count on turnovers, and the Titans were never sound enough this year to get consistent stops. They gave up 32 downfield completions, which ranked 29th. Tennessee finished the regular ranked 29th in DVOA and 30th against the pass, and there’s little reason to believe they can improve on that performance in the postseason. The Titans are going to have to piece it together defensively by capitalizing on turnover opportunities and getting stops in the red zone.
Data above courtesy of Sportradar, TruMedia, Sports Info Solutions and Pro Football Focus.
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