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The Marty Lounge>Investing megathread extravaganza
DaFace 11:23 AM 06-27-2016
A place to talk about investing stuff.
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Rain Man 01:36 PM 03-02-2017
My retail stocks are like Dresden during the fire bombings. I only have a couple, but TGT and ANF have been taking a beating, and I think they're typical.

Do we think they'll bounce back or are all retail stocks going the way of Montgomery Wards? I'm curious if this is a buying opportunity or the beginning of a mass extinction event.
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Amnorix 01:39 PM 03-02-2017
Originally Posted by Rain Man:
My retail stocks are like Dresden during the fire bombings. I only have a couple, but TGT and ANF have been taking a beating, and I think they're typical.

Do we think they'll bounce back or are all retail stocks going the way of Montgomery Wards? I'm curious if this is a buying opportunity or the beginning of a mass extinction event.


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Amnorix 01:42 PM 03-02-2017
I guess what it really comes down to is that I have zero confidence that retail will outperform other sectors where money could be invested. I'd far rather get a little retail by having the money in an index mutual fund, than be directly invested in a retail company.
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ChiliConCarnage 03:41 PM 03-02-2017
Originally Posted by Rain Man:
My retail stocks are like Dresden during the fire bombings. I only have a couple, but TGT and ANF have been taking a beating, and I think they're typical.

Do we think they'll bounce back or are all retail stocks going the way of Montgomery Wards? I'm curious if this is a buying opportunity or the beginning of a mass extinction event.
Target just did 4Q earnings a day or so ago.. no bueno for 4Q sales or forward guidance. Online sales were up but it's such a tiny part of their business

Originally Posted by :
For full-year 2017, Target expects a low-single digit decline in comparable sales, and both GAAP EPS from continuing operations and Adjusted EPS of $3.80 to $4.20.
I did a check and WMT is flat for the last 3 months vs TGT down 25%. Wal-Mart has a larger online presence already. I'm not an investor in either but I know WMT bought Amazon sorta competitor Jet.com. I've also seen their recent commercials offering free 2-day shipping on orders over $35(?) bucks to try and match Amazon.

I've heard nothing about anything Target is doing other than dying a slow death. They may have some grand plan or something I don't follow them closely.

I just looked at ANF and it's up 13+% today. I see their earnings report came out today.. it must have been favorable.
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Rain Man 03:50 PM 03-02-2017
Originally Posted by Amnorix:
I guess what it really comes down to is that I have zero confidence that retail will outperform other sectors where money could be invested. I'd far rather get a little retail by having the money in an index mutual fund, than be directly invested in a retail company.
I think you're supposed to buy when blood is running in the streets and everyone is screaming in agony. That's certainly the case here, but then again sometimes blood runs in the streets and people scream in agony because they're actually dying.
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Rain Man 03:52 PM 03-02-2017
Originally Posted by ChiliConCarnage:
Target just did 4Q earnings a day or so ago.. no bueno for 4Q sales or forward guidance. Online sales were up but it's such a tiny part of their business



I did a check and WMT is flat for the last 3 months vs TGT down 25%. Wal-Mart has a larger online presence already. I'm not an investor in either but I know WMT bought Amazon sorta competitor Jet.com. I've also seen their recent commercials offering free 2-day shipping on orders over $35(?) bucks to try and match Amazon.

I've heard nothing about anything Target is doing other than dying a slow death. They may have some grand plan or something I don't follow them closely.

I just looked at ANF and it's up 13+% today. I see their earnings report came out today.. it must have been favorable.
It wasn't long ago that TGT was viewed as a darling that was successfully incorporating predictive analytics and appealing to upscale soccer moms. I can't figure out why that has suddenly changed.

I'm not on my own network today so as a policy I don't get into any of my financial accounts. That's excellent news about ANF. If it does that a couple more days in a row, I might be profitable on it.
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scho63 04:19 PM 03-02-2017
Originally Posted by Rain Man:
I think you're supposed to buy when blood is running in the streets and everyone is screaming in agony. That's certainly the case here, but then again sometimes blood runs in the streets and people scream in agony because they're actually dying.
Traditional retail scares the shit out of me. I don't really see much to invest in. Very few, only niche companies with stand alone stores. Anything tied to an indoor mall is pretty much dead on arrival.
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Demonpenz 05:47 PM 03-02-2017
Originally Posted by Halfcan:
That sounds like a solid plan. You will be very comfortable at retirement age.

Make sure you say hi to me when I am 90 and still working as a Walmart greeter. Sucks when you lose half your retirement in a divorce- it takes a lot of years to get it back.
Yeah hit me up and I will give you some money to convince pest I am funny
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Buehler445 08:09 PM 03-02-2017
Originally Posted by scho63:
Traditional retail scares the shit out of me. I don't really see much to invest in. Very few, only niche companies with stand alone stores. Anything tied to an indoor mall is pretty much dead on arrival.
Agreed. Except maybe Walmart. It's always going to attract lowest common denominator types. Their free 2 day shipping might take some shine off amazon who would be the only retailer I would even think about.

I doubt any of them release it but it is all driven by inventory efficiency (probably calculated as inventory turns or inventory as a % of sales) and sales/sq ft. That's where amazon is hell on these fools. They set up the infrastructure and make vendors hold the inventory and do the shipping.

There may be a buying opportunity if labor laws relax some or something maybe. But I don't see what is going to make retail more profitable save structural changes or taxes that would hurt online sales.
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O.city 08:22 PM 03-02-2017
Buehler, any insight on AI for me?
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Buehler445 08:34 PM 03-02-2017
Originally Posted by O.city:
Buehler, any insight on AI for me?
Artificial intelligence?

Not much. Sorry.
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JohnnyHammersticks 08:50 PM 03-02-2017
Originally Posted by TigerUppercut:
Want to make a nice investment that will cash out well in the next few years?

Aclaris Therapeutics and Portola Pharmaceuticals.

You're welcome.
Thank you, kind sir. I will definitely look at those.

And here's one for you. Pure Energy Minerals, LTD. PEMIF. Lithium mining. $0.46/share, currently. About 1, 1.5 years from hitting. Load up while you can.
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Demonpenz 12:59 AM 03-03-2017
The problem with Target is it was supposed to be an alternative to shitty ass walmart, well guess what, now we got so many dumb fucks in the USA they spilled over to Target.
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kepp 08:14 AM 03-10-2017
Originally Posted by Halfcan:
UBQU

Best MJ stock I have found lately- they are actually making money. All of their products are legal in all 50 states.
Alright, I opened an individual brokerage account to play with and I just placed a (small) order for UBQU. Go cannabis, go!
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ChiliConCarnage 08:52 AM 03-10-2017
Originally Posted by :
Average hourly earnings increased 2.8% from year earlier
:-)

Were definitely getting another rate hike this month. Futures are over 90% now. A 2nd one by June is almost at 50%
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