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The Marty Lounge>Investing megathread extravaganza
DaFace 11:23 AM 06-27-2016
A place to talk about investing stuff.
[Reply]
petegz28 10:26 PM 12-21-2017
This market is on fire right now but I am thinking it's about time for a correction and I am starting to see early, early signs. But with it being Dec. and holiday season it's tough to tell. I fully expect a crap January if not a crap 1st quarter. The 10 year Treasury is yielding 2.48% and rising. I see 2.75% in the very near future and if we get 2 more rate hikes I see it hitting 3%. It may do that on 1 hike.

I think you are going to see some "savers" slowly start to exit the stock market as yields become more attractive in the bond and money markets.

Real Estate is slated to have a good year but rising rates are going to have some effect but it's unclear as to the extent of how much.

Small cap stocks might be the sweet spot this coming year. They tend to do good in a rising interest rate environment since they do not have the interest rate sensitivity that larger companies have.

D.C. can hit a grand slam if the Trump Admin. starts to pursue an infrastructure bill. GDP is probably going to be consistently over 3% and might push 3.5%. Rising wages are on the horizon as well. So ignore the typical bantering about deficits. If Trump goes for an infrastructure bill, the Democrats will risk annihilation in 2018 if they aren't on board with it.

My worry is the BitCoin craze. This reminds me of the .com bubble. It was the bubble that finally took us to a correction and recession for that matter. I don't know about recession but a correction is long overdue. BitCoin bursting can possibly be the straw that breaks the back of the camel and send us down 10% or so.

However, what we've seen this year is the impact of the robo-trade. Instead of typical corrections we have had periods of flat to slightly down markets where we saw a lot of sector rotation. With the advent of computers it happens so fast and precise that you don't really get a sell off but a flattening. We saw this the last month or so with techs taking a hit while industrials rose.

This is an investors' market right now and not a traders' market. How long that lasts, who knows? Volatility will return at some point and traders will pounce. Until then the trend is still strong to the upside.
[Reply]
Buehler445 12:35 AM 12-22-2017
Yeah. I forgot to mention the carryforward losses. There arent many earned deductions you canít carry forward outside of 179.

But itís a bitch if you have a no gain somewhere and can only use 3,000 of cap losses.

Pete, I donít think there is near the volume in crypto currency as there was in the .com. Could be wrong though. There is some stupid money happening.
[Reply]
kepp 09:08 AM 12-22-2017
Originally Posted by petegz28:
This market is on fire right now but I am thinking it's about time for a correction and I am starting to see early, early signs. But with it being Dec. and holiday season it's tough to tell. I fully expect a crap January if not a crap 1st quarter. The 10 year Treasury is yielding 2.48% and rising. I see 2.75% in the very near future and if we get 2 more rate hikes I see it hitting 3%. It may do that on 1 hike.

I think you are going to see some "savers" slowly start to exit the stock market as yields become more attractive in the bond and money markets.

Real Estate is slated to have a good year but rising rates are going to have some effect but it's unclear as to the extent of how much.

Small cap stocks might be the sweet spot this coming year. They tend to do good in a rising interest rate environment since they do not have the interest rate sensitivity that larger companies have.

D.C. can hit a grand slam if the Trump Admin. starts to pursue an infrastructure bill. GDP is probably going to be consistently over 3% and might push 3.5%. Rising wages are on the horizon as well. So ignore the typical bantering about deficits. If Trump goes for an infrastructure bill, the Democrats will risk annihilation in 2018 if they aren't on board with it.

My worry is the BitCoin craze. This reminds me of the .com bubble. It was the bubble that finally took us to a correction and recession for that matter. I don't know about recession but a correction is long overdue. BitCoin bursting can possibly be the straw that breaks the back of the camel and send us down 10% or so.

However, what we've seen this year is the impact of the robo-trade. Instead of typical corrections we have had periods of flat to slightly down markets where we saw a lot of sector rotation. With the advent of computers it happens so fast and precise that you don't really get a sell off but a flattening. We saw this the last month or so with techs taking a hit while industrials rose.

This is an investors' market right now and not a traders' market. How long that lasts, who knows? Volatility will return at some point and traders will pounce. Until then the trend is still strong to the upside.
I've been wondering about this a lot lately. I want to retire in ten years and I'm not sure I can take a big hit from a correction and still do it. What's the best way to maintain wealth through a correction? Bonds? Precious metals? I'm not sure.
[Reply]
Hog's Gone Fishin 09:37 AM 12-22-2017
Originally Posted by kepp:
I've been wondering about this a lot lately. I want to retire in ten years and I'm not sure I can take a big hit from a correction and still do it. What's the best way to maintain wealth through a correction? Bonds? Precious metals? I'm not sure.
Have you thought about Bitcoin. It's really stable.







:-)
[Reply]
kepp 10:15 AM 12-22-2017
Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin:
Have you thought about Bitcoin. It's really stable.


:-)
Besides WISHING I'd have thought about it a long time ago, no.
[Reply]
Buehler445 12:02 PM 12-22-2017
Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin:
Have you thought about Bitcoin. It's really stable.







:-)
:-)
[Reply]
petegz28 12:34 PM 12-22-2017
Originally Posted by kepp:
I've been wondering about this a lot lately. I want to retire in ten years and I'm not sure I can take a big hit from a correction and still do it. What's the best way to maintain wealth through a correction? Bonds? Precious metals? I'm not sure.
Best way to survive a correction is to not participate in one. So reduce your exposure to stocks I general. The stocks you do own should be blue chips that pay good and increasing dividends. Bonds are where you will find stability. Though as rates rise bonds will fall in price but their yields will go up. 10 years out, you should be no more than 60% or so in stocks anyway.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
[Reply]
lewdog 03:45 PM 12-25-2017
Looking at possibly placing a market order and getting in on NVTA stock this week. Looking for companies/stock currently undervalued and this could be one. Increased approval of genetic testing could move this company.

The last stock tip I gave on CP was for Canopy Growth and it's currently trading up 120% from the post I made in August. :-)

https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/4...update-invitae

https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/...-under-10.aspx
[Reply]
Hog's Gone Fishin 04:54 PM 12-25-2017
I built myself some pretend portfolios on etrade over the weekend and made ones for different sectors. I set them up to show price changes over the last 30 days and the one that stood out was the oil and gas stocks all "up" across the board. The next best were the financial and banking stocks as well some steel stocks. The pharmaceutical stocks were spotty.
[Reply]
Couch-Potato 07:13 AM 12-26-2017
Originally Posted by lewdog:
Looking at possibly placing a market order and getting in on NVTA stock this week. Looking for companies/stock currently undervalued and this could be one. Increased approval of genetic testing could move this company.

The last stock tip I gave on CP was for Canopy Growth and it's currently trading up 120% from the post I made in August. :-)

https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/4...update-invitae

https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/...-under-10.aspx

Great company, know them well. Preventative diagnostics are a tough sell however, and there are a lot of similar players in that game. Wishing them, and you, the best. Here's hoping they go through the roof!
[Reply]
wutamess 10:20 AM 12-26-2017
Originally Posted by lewdog:
Looking at possibly placing a market order and getting in on NVTA stock this week. Looking for companies/stock currently undervalued and this could be one. Increased approval of genetic testing could move this company.

The last stock tip I gave on CP was for Canopy Growth and it's currently trading up 120% from the post I made in August. :-)

https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/4...update-invitae

https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/...-under-10.aspx
What do your spidey senses say about this one? How much of your portfolio would you throw at it?
[Reply]
lewdog 07:38 PM 12-26-2017
Originally Posted by wutamess:
What do your spidey senses say about this one? How much of your portfolio would you throw at it?
Not much, to answer your final question.

Humble brag on savings this year but the wife and I each put 10% into our 401k, we each maxed out our Roth IRAs(2x $5,500) and I was able to fully fund my HSA account ($3,400). The "leftover" money I put into my brokerage account for some small purchases of individual stocks and could be considered play money, although I'd prefer not to lose it. So realistically, this would be a purchase of $1-2k of stock for NVTA. Nothing major that will have me lose sleep at night, but a strong outlook on a company that continues to increase revenue and broader research in this area. Most of my purchases in my brokerage account are rather small compared to my overall portfolio, since I try to fund my 401k and Roth heavily first.
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RunKC 08:18 PM 12-26-2017
Lew, what do you think about buying Bank Of America? It’s a dividend and it’s under $30
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Discuss Thrower 08:34 PM 12-26-2017
If BAC is getting a noticeable chunk of revenue from mortgage fees, might be something to keep an eye on as interest rates increase.
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Hog's Gone Fishin 10:20 PM 12-26-2017
BAC is up 12.29% last 30 days. It's ranked #4 in the Financial portfolio I put together last weekend to measure 30 day movement in that sector. It's a big player in a shit load of mutual funds.
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