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Washington DC and The Holy Land>Let's end the shutdown
Merde Furieux 07:21 AM 04-14-2020
Currently our economy is being decimated, not by a disease but by a series of governmental shutdown orders that have closed most businesses and resulted in millions of layoffs. These orders were based not on experience, but on models that we now know were wrong. It is critical to remember that the shutdown strategy was never intended to stop people from getting sick.

When we all emerge from hibernation, the virus will still be there, and some of us (more or less the same number) will still get sick. The idea was to “flatten the curve” by prolonging the epidemic, so that hospital resources would not be overwhelmed at any one time. We now know that projections of hospital and ICU use were wildly inaccurate. That means that the “flatten the curve” rationale has ceased to exist (unless you think there will be a vaccine or a cure within the next month or two, which won’t happen). So why are our governments persisting in devastating the lives of tens of millions, if not hundreds of millions, of Americans?

A reader from the New York area writes:

The models, as you have noted, are not tracking reality well, at all. Models pointed to large outbreaks of the virus washing over the country this week. Right now hospitals are managing just fine almost everywhere—well below capacity, in fact.

Even in NYC, the estimates of the beds and ventilators needed has been grossly wide of the mark: they’d estimated a need for 140,000 beds by last Friday, but only needed 8,500. Looking around the country, it doesn’t appear that any hospitals are using the emergency facilities they urgently threw up around the country. Even Louisiana got through its surge without being overwhelmed. Washington DC is supposedly 8 days past the peak as gauged by IHME, and nothing of note has happened. The expected epidemics haven’t materialized, indicating that there are big problems with the models, likely focusing on their assumptions about either the disease’s case fatality rate or its contagiousness (or both).

Note that social distancing should only now just be affecting hospital capacity – given that there’s a 3-week lag between when social distancing can begin to bring down new infections that can then progress to hospitalization severity. Most places only locked down at the end of March, so the lack of hospital utilization right now isn’t due to social distancing.

She notes this article by Stanford epidemiologist John Ioannidis in the European Journal of Clinical Investigation, titled “Coronavirus disease 2019: The harms of exaggerated information and non‐evidence‐based measures.” It is well worth your time. A couple of excerpts:

An argument in favour of lockdowns is that postponing the epidemic wave (“flattening the curve”) gains time to develop vaccines and reduces strain on the health system. However, vaccines take many months (or years) to develop and test properly. Maintaining lockdowns for many months may have even worse consequences than an epidemic wave that runs an acute course. Focusing on protecting susceptible individuals may be preferable to maintaining countrywide lockdowns longterm.
***
Leading figures insist that the current situation is a once‐in‐a‐century pandemic. A corollary might be that any reaction to it, no matter how extreme, is justified.

This year’s coronavirus outbreak is clearly unprecedented in amount of attention received. Media have capitalized on curiosity, uncertainty and horror. A Google search with “coronavirus” yielded 3 550 000 000 results on March 3 and 9 440 000 000 results on March 14. Conversely, “influenza” attracted 30‐ to 60‐fold less attention although this season it has caused so far more deaths globally than coronavirus.

Different coronaviruses actually infect millions of people every year, and they are common especially in the elderly and in hospitalized patients with respiratory illness in the winter. A serological analysis1 of CoV 229E and OC43 in 4 adult populations under surveillance for acute respiratory illness during the winters of 1999‐2003 (healthy young adults, healthy elderly adults, high‐risk adults with underlying cardiopulmonary disease and a hospitalized group) showed annual infection rates ranging from 2.8% to 26% in prospective cohorts, and prevalence of 3.3%‐11.1% in the hospitalized cohort. Case fatality of 8% has been described in outbreaks among nursing home elderly. Leaving the well‐known and highly lethal SARS and MERS coronaviruses aside, other coronaviruses probably have infected millions of people and have killed thousands. However, it is only this year that every single case and every single death gets red alert broadcasting in the news.

See original for citations. Our reader also points out this study by Dr. Ioannidis and others, which attempts to quantify the risk of death from COVID-19 in various demographic groups, based on data from nine countries including the U.S.:

The absolute risk of COVID-19 death ranged from 1.7 per million for people <65 years old in Germany to 79 per million in New York City. The absolute risk of COVID-19 death for people ≥80 years old ranged from approximately 1 in 6,000 in Germany to 1 in 420 in Spain. The COVID-19 death risk in people <65 years old during the period of fatalities from the epidemic was equivalent to the death risk from driving between 9 miles per day (Germany) and 415 miles per day (New York City). People <65 years old and not having any underlying predisposing conditions accounted for only 0.3%, 0.7%, and 1.8% of all COVID-19 deaths in Netherlands, Italy, and New York City. CONCLUSIONS: People <65 years old have very small risks of COVID-19 death even in the hotbeds of the pandemic and deaths for people <65 years without underlying predisposing conditions are remarkably uncommon. Strategies focusing specifically on protecting high-risk elderly individuals should be considered in managing the pandemic.

Finally, this one doesn’t come from our reader, but if you want to see what an old-fashioned epidemiologist from Germany thinks about social distancing, it is worth reading for entertainment value alone.

DR. WITTKOWSKI: With all respiratory diseases, the only thing that stops the disease is herd immunity. About 80% of the people need to have had contact with the virus, and the majority of them won’t even have recognized that they were infected, or they had very, very mild symptoms, especially if they are children. So, it’s very important to keep the schools open and kids mingling to spread the virus to get herd immunity as fast as possible, and then the elderly people, who should be separated, and the nursing homes should be closed during that time, can come back and meet their children and grandchildren after about 4 weeks when the virus has been exterminated.

Interviewer: And so, what do you make of the policy that was enacted in the United States and England and most places throughout the world, this policy of containment, shelter-in-place, etc.? What’s your opinion of it?

DR. WITTKOWSKI: Well, what people are trying to do is flatten the curve. I don’t really know why. But, what happens is if you flatten the curve, you also prolong, to widen it, and it takes more time. And I don’t see a good reason for a respiratory disease to stay in the population longer than necessary.

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archiv...n-covid-19.php
[Reply]
Merde Furieux 09:48 AM 04-14-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
It is interesting to see how different people respond to stress in this situation.
Let's see, Washington state requested a US Army field hospital get built in anticipation of the bodies piling up in the hospital hallways---- never happened.

Cuomo "I need 44,000 thousand respirators, yesterday!!!" Didn't need them, didn't use them.

The USS Mercy... I could go on and on, but whats the point? We all know who fanned the flames of fear and panic, not out of concern for people, but to kneecap Trump.

You're a POS.
[Reply]
Donger 09:53 AM 04-14-2020
Originally Posted by Merde Furieux:
Let's see, Washington state requested a US Army field hospital get built in anticipation of the bodies piling up in the hospital hallways---- never happened.

Cuomo "I need 44,000 thousand respirators, yesterday!!!" Didn't need them, didn't use them.

The USS Mercy... I could go on and on, but whats the point? We all know who fanned the flames of fear and panic, not out of concern for people, but to kneecap Trump.

You're a POS.
Yes, they overestimated need. I'd rather have done that than the opposite, which is what you wanted.

Thanks for the demonstration, however. Appreciated.
[Reply]
AdolfOliverBush 09:54 AM 04-14-2020
Originally Posted by BucEyedPea:
Nazi docs were the experts back in the 1930s'. How'd that end, ADOLPH?
Stupid and irrelevant.

Originally Posted by BucEyedPea:
Geezaz, not all experts even agree. This has followed the same curve as other viruses through history.
You don't even think the pandemic is real.
[Reply]
BucEyedPea 10:01 AM 04-14-2020
It's happening. Fears of economic collapse. Michigan's shutdown, which is particularly tryannical, will be done in cars as a drive-thru protest to maintain social distancing. :-)

Coronavirus stay-at-home orders stir protests nationwide amid fears of economic collapse

The protest – called “Operation Gridlock” – would be just one of a number of demonstrations of civil disobedience around the country by Americans upset with their state’s stay-at-home orders amid the pandemic.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/cor...otests-economy

[Reply]
BucEyedPea 10:07 AM 04-14-2020
We’re Falling Into A Trap Of Sensationalism” – Stanford Professor of Medicine on COVID-19

John P. A. Ioannidis, a professor of medicine and epidemiology, recently published an article entitled “A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data.“ In the article, he also argues that there is simply not enough data to make claims about reported case fatality rate. He stated that rates, “like the official 3.4% rate from the World Health Organization, cause horror — and are meaningless.”....


There are many questions to ask, and there is nothing wrong with asking questions. Ioannidis was joined by some of his Stanford faculty asking whether this virus was going to be as serious as the media was and is making it out to be. Dr. Eran Bendavid and Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, two professors of medicine at Stanford University recently published an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal entitled, “Is the coronavirus as deadly as they say?

Video here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NPtw...ature=emb_logo

https://www.collective-evolution.com...ovid-19-video/

[Reply]
KCChiefsFan88 10:13 AM 04-14-2020
For locations with an authoritarian face mask requirement...


[Reply]
Merde Furieux 10:15 AM 04-14-2020
Hydroxychloroquine doesn't work. We have to keep this thing going!!!! Orange man GAH!
[Reply]
AdolfOliverBush 10:17 AM 04-14-2020
Originally Posted by Merde Furieux:
Hydroxychloroquine doesn't work. We have to keep this thing going!!!! Orange man GAH!
"Orange Man" fully supports the measures being taken.
[Reply]
BucEyedPea 10:17 AM 04-14-2020
Professor Knut Wittkowski, for twenty years head of The Rockefeller University's Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design, says that social distancing and lockdown is the absolutely worst way to deal with an airborne respiratory virus.

"We've had corona viruses before—won't be the lasts. For all respiratory diseases we have same type of an epidemic. If leave it alone, it comes for 2 weeks, peaks, to goes for 2 weeks and then it's gone. "

Video here:

[Reply]
BucEyedPea 10:33 AM 04-14-2020
What it will look like when they finally let us out.

The New Normal.


[Reply]
MGRS13 10:59 AM 04-14-2020
#1. I thought you right wingers hated protests. Is it ok if someone just drives their car into those people?
#2. If you are trying to prove a point. Don’t do a march from your car. Get out. March chant. Have your message be heard. If you are forced to quarantine for two weeks, ok. Have some balls. Put your money where your mouth is. Take a chance.
#3. I’m not being a smartass. This is what we do in America. I don’t agree with you. But I 100% believe in your right to be heard.
[Reply]
BucEyedPea 11:23 AM 04-14-2020
Originally Posted by MGRS13:
#1. I thought you right wingers hated protests.

That's when we're working and the do-nothings are protesting. Not when we have too much time on our hands, with nothing meaningful to do, and this is protecting the Constitution not wrecking it the way the left does for their socialism/communism or fake rights.
[Reply]
BucEyedPea 11:23 AM 04-14-2020

We are weeks, not months, away from farmers euthanizing animals that would have been sold for meat/food. Also, fruits and vegetables are going to rot in the fields. A drastic change in policy this week could ameliorate this inevitability.

Listen here:https://t.co/bCzTX763r1

— Thomas Massie (@RepThomasMassie) April 13, 2020

[Reply]
AdolfOliverBush 11:38 AM 04-14-2020
Originally Posted by BucEyedPea:
I'm no rancher...why would an animal have to be euthanized when it isn't sold as quickly as it normally would be?
[Reply]
MGRS13 11:40 AM 04-14-2020
Originally Posted by BucEyedPea:
That's when we're working and the do-nothings are protesting. Not when we have too much time on our hands, with nothing meaningful to do, and this is protecting the Constitution not wrecking it the way the left does for their socialism/communism or fake rights.
The do-nothings? I think you mean the don’t do what dear leader tells them-ings.
You do know the trumpublicans really are the no-nothing party right? Same racist nationalist platform just what 170 years later.
[Reply]
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