1. Tommy Townsend was insanely good the last couple years.
2. Effective punting, especially with a defense as good as ours, is critical.
3. Matt Araiza was a top candidate at one point, but the Chiefs aren't even his first stop since his acquittal. He had a tryout with the Jets in 2023, and they didn't elect to sign him. So, he either got really good in the past year, or he's probably a replacement-level punter, and the Chiefs need a new one.
4. Forward to 20:00 of Brett Kollman's Q&A video:
That leads to my question:
There's a couple really good punters in this class -- would you invest a pick in one? Would you take your chances in UDFA? Or are you comfortable rolling into the season with a potentially replacement-level punter. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin:
The Jets are dumbfux and will finish last in their division again because Aaron ****ing Rogers isn't going to save a failure of a franchise.
Originally Posted by kccrow:
Here are EPA-driven assessments that show that there aren't vast differences in EPA by punter, but even when there are they aren't on the field enough plays for it to have a significant cumulative effect throughout a season. A best punter adding 2-3 points per SEASON is not getting you very far. I'll look for other stuff as I can here.
Originally Posted by RealSNR:
You don’t know if Araiza is good at punting, but a random rookie we piss away a draft pick on will be?
I will say that I operate with a specific bias. The typical ways of adding talent will always get a leg up with me over atypical ways of adding talent.
Adding players from the draft and players who've just gotten cut or in free agency make more sense to me than players who have been pulled out of retirement, or been out of the league for an extended period of time. I simply trust the typical ways of adding talent more.
That being said, I recognize that blind spot and that sometimes, the exception will prove me wrong. It's usually, usually a very bad idea to acquire your starting left tackle in May after the draft for like $4m, but the Chiefs pulled that off last year.
So maybe Araiza still has his fastball. But I don't know. [Reply]
Originally Posted by kccrow:
I mean, it does matter, there just isn't enough variation among NFL-caliber punters to make an astronomical difference.
We averaged 4 punts per game in 2023. If we're giving up 4-5 yards on average over having a great punter, that's probably not going to lead to many more points against us.
Now if you go ahead and do what you say here, you might be going from a difference of a punter that gets 44 ypp vs 50 ypp and 42 vs 47 net to something a lot worse. If we start handing teams, say 15 yards of extra field position regularly, that's going to result in more points against us. The motions and placement are so different, right, that you'd probably end up with a very below-average player on both fronts.
I think this kind of analysis doesn't measure, again, what a very good punter can do for you. [Reply]
Originally Posted by kccrow:
This is the way. I'm confident Araiza will be very good for us but just bring in another UDFA guy to compete. There are 5-10 of those guys sitting around after the draft every year that are reasonably NFL-quality.
I'd say all of these guys are not getting drafted:
Ryan Rekhow, BYU
Tory Taylor, Iowa
Matt Hayball, Vanderbilt
Porter Wilson, Duke
Austin McNamara, Texas Tech
Blake Ochsendorf, Louisiana Tech
Jack Browning, San Diego State
Riley Thompson, Penn State
Oscar Chapman, Auburn
I will bet you {insert bet here} at least one of Rekhow and Taylor get drafted. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Pasta Little Brioni:
Op is easily the most football dumb poster I've seen on any board
I mean, to be fair, I think you've said something along those lines about all the "armchair GMs" that post in here at one point or another. lol.
He has a right to an opinion, we all do. I think the thought of having a "high quality" punter is kind of old school given how good all special teamers are these days and where we are at as a league with going for it on 4th down and so forth. Not much sense in putting a ton of resources into a guy that's going to make 3-5 plays kicks a game and 10 every year can all get you 44+ yards coming out of college. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Dante84:
I think you're going to have your socks blown off once preseason starts.
I want you to re-watch this and set your mind at ease.
Is it just because he's a left footed punter and it looks different or does he take an extra step before punting the ball. It seems like he takes an awfully long time to get the punt off. [Reply]
Originally Posted by kccrow:
I mean, to be fair, I think you've said something along those lines about all the "armchair GMs" that post in here at one point or another. lol.
He has a right to an opinion, we all do. I think the thought of having a "high quality" punter is kind of old school given how good all special teamers are these days and where we are at as a league with going for it on 4th down and so forth. Not much sense in putting a ton of resources into a guy that's going to make 3-5 plays kicks a game and 10 every year can all get you 44+ yards coming out of college.
I don't recall that. Direction....yup. I actually gave you props in a thread not long ago BTW :-) [Reply]
Originally Posted by Direckshun:
Several things are worth consideration.
1. Tommy Townsend was insanely good the last couple years.
2. Effective punting, especially with a defense as good as ours, is critical.
3. Matt Araiza was a top candidate at one point, but the Chiefs aren't even his first stop since his acquittal. He had a tryout with the Jets in 2023, and they didn't elect to sign him. So, he either got really good in the past year, or he's probably a replacement-level punter, and the Chiefs need a new one.
4. Forward to 20:00 of Brett Kollman's Q&A video:
That leads to my question:
There's a couple really good punters in this class -- would you invest a pick in one? Would you take your chances in UDFA? Or are you comfortable rolling into the season with a potentially replacement-level punter.
Huh? We dont need to draft or sign a punter we already have one and hes at the very least the 10th best punter in the league. We didn't get the punt god for nothing [Reply]
Originally Posted by Direckshun:
I don't doubt them? I don't think Veach/Reid have come out saying that Araiza is the punter of the future. He signed for pennies.
I fully believe the Chiefs are going to bring in competition for him.
They said it without saying it when they let Townsend skate out of KC.
They’ll sign an UDFA or a veteran to have some camp competition for him in case The Dolphin suddenly lost it in the year he took off because he had been accused of doing Dolphin-like things. [Reply]
