Then they'll lose.

A lot.

They have no choice - they aren't the Yankees and they can't buy their way out of this mess. Either they develop hitting or they'll fail. They don't have a path to being a winning team without being a smart organization that can develop young players.

They're not the Royals either - they don't have to be 100% homegrown and cost effective. They can go outside the organization to supplement their internal options. But like I said, they've used their rope there and in many cases used it very poorly.
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Question are the Cards gonna play Tyler O'Neill or should they trade him?
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Yeah, 6 years of Carlson may be worth more than 2 years of Arenado and that's just the start of what you would have to give up.
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They should put him and Bader both on the block.

They're redundant. And the team needs a lefty with some thumb in the worst way.

I was told that Philly signed Harper to an asinine contract so they're clearly be looking to get out from under that, right? Surely they'd accept Bader or O'Neill for him...
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really? Why would Philly just give him away in a salary dump after 1 year? They have plenty of money.
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So did the Cardinals.

But I was told that pursuing Harper was reckless regardless of the fact that the Cardinals are among the most profitable teams in baseball and are sitting on billions in franchise equity.

I mean surely the Phillies recognize that and would allow us to remedy their egregious error for them.
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They wouldn't...he is poking at those that thought it was a bad deal. It probably is going to look like a bargain after this year.
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Harper Trendline

fWAR. fWAR MV. bWAR MV. Salary. (Surplus)

4.6. $37 million. $33.6 million. $27.5 million. ($9.5 million/6.1 million)

If he provides similar surplus through age 30, he’s $35-40 million ahead of the contract.

^ this all based on the $8 million/Win market valuation. Which has issues but is the best baseline we’ve got.
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And holy shit, when you compare it to Paul Goldschmidt. Who is nearly as expensive as Harper at his peak. Who is older and looks to be declining. Who cost some controlled young pieces to acquire (Kelly and Weaver both put up 2 win seasons in 1/2 time last year).

Just in terms of Harper vs Goldy straight up, Harper wins everything except risk past 2024.

You throw in Kelly and Weaver and shit gets really rough.

Just basing surplus on last year and projections from this year, Harper’s surplus value on the market is around $30 million bucks. As are Weaver and Kelly (2-win players on pre-are salaries are worth around $15 million surplus value a year).

Goldschmidt’s surplus is a modest $10 million, and that’s with current models predicting a mild bounce back for him at age 32 to being a 3.5 win player.

If you project his value out over the course of the deal, unless he breaks the aging curve you’re likely looking at being $10 million in the hole or so on the value of his deal. Even projecting basically flat performance for Harper (around 4 wins a year) and Kelly and Weaver (basically 2 wins a year/player) the Cardinals are about a quarter of a billion dollars in the hole on overall from the decision to trade for Goldschmidt instead of just signing Harper and keeping Kelly and Weaver.
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Please stop.

I had this conversation for weeks last year. I was told that we fleeced the diamondbacks and the Phillies were crazy.

Because, y'know, I have some concept of the idea of surplus value.

I have no idea how millions of dollars worth of front office executive does not.

Now it all just gives me a sad. Because the Cardinals will not be in a situation for years if not decades where a 26 year old FA who perfectly fits their needs and is likely heading to Cooperstown is ready to leave his team AND the biggest pockets in MLB are sitting it out.

I mean there is truly no justification at all for how the Cardinals approached last offseason and it really should've cost them all their jobs.

Instead they got extensions. Because....reasons.
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Oh, and the odds of Goldschmidt (a guy who didn't break out until later in his career and is demonstrating extremely troublesome chase trends while also having defensive limitations) breaking the aging curve are effectively zero.

And it's not as though there isn't a wealth of research on this topic for anyone willing to dig into it.

Goldschmidt w/ his contract ALONE is a bad bet. Goldschmidt with his contract AND the pieces they gave up to get him is an awful one. Goldschmidt with his contract, the pieces they gave up to get him AND in chosen in lieu of Harper is friggen organizational malpractice.

I just.....{sobs}
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God Dammit!

Start at about mid-day on 12/4 and read through about 12/8 and tell me I'm not a friggen prophet.

http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showt...chmidt&page=52

Man this team fucked that up. So, so badly.
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Nah..it was summed up with my two words

Fire Mo...

Nothing else needed said. We were doomed.
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This is depressing.
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You cant give out contracts like the Fowler, Cecil, Goldy and extend Carp for no reason and not have the payroll chickens come home to roost.

But................. That doesn't mean the Cardinals shouldn't spend money. Yeah, your GM ****ed up, you just extended his contract. Your going to back him? Okay, make good on his ****ups or at least try. You paid $75 million in cash for the franchise. It's worth $2 Billion now. Ballpark Village is making money hand over fist. 3 million through the turnstiles every year. You said you'd put the profits into the team. It's time to open up the checkbook Dewitt to cover your GM's mistakes or at least try to.

Yeah, you spent money. Badly. You need to make it right. They should knowingly throw some money down the tube at the end of Harper's contract to strengthen our line up for the next 3-4 years.
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