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Saccopoo Memorial Draft Forum>Mock 02/10/2020
kccrow 08:30 PM 02-10-2020
At the end of the day you just have to make business decisions, so I think the Chiefs will release OT Cameron Erving, SS Dan Sorensen, and P Dustin Colquitt.

Really, Erving isn't any good and by not picking up his option the Chiefs can save substantial money against the cap. He's not the "only" swing tackle option currently on the roster as Martinas Rankin can move outside in a pinch as well and be equally inept. This is probably an area the Chiefs should address either way. Sorensen is a cut you don't want to make but money is a big factor here. Saving $3.7 million against the cap is pretty huge in a year the Chiefs just don't have much money. They can likely get a replacement at half that price and there should be a handful of guys that fit in that role available in free agency. As for Colquitt, he's not a big-money savings but he proved this year to be subpar and the Chiefs really just need to find young blood. There should be plenty of available UDFA competition for the spot.

I'm going to go with a trade I would like to see happen with a team we have a history with and send RG Laurent Duvernay-Tardif to the Washington Redskins for FS Troy Apke. Apke has two years remaining on his rookie deal, has good size and speed and has become increasingly productive as a reserve for the Redskins. In my opinion, Andrew Wylie was every bit as good as LDT when he played the spot as a reserve the past couple of seasons and he can be retained on an ERFA deal for 2020. If the Chiefs can re-sign Wisniewski on a cheap 1-year deal, I think you let Wylie, Wis, and Rankin battle it out for at least one of the guard spots. As for the Redskins, they have both of their guards, including RG Brandon Scherff, set to hit the market this year. At this point I think cutting LDT is just as well an option given his performance and injuries the past two years to go with a cap hit that doesn't match, so if the Chiefs can find a way to get some kind of return for him it would be great. We saw that starting caliber offensive lineman have some value, however small, when KC traded Dallas a couple seasons ago for Ward. I'd focus on trying to get a FS in that can help if Thornhill isn't 100% that doubles as a longer-term and younger replacement for Dirty Dan.

Franchise tag DT Chris Jones and trade him to the Seattle Seahawks for the 27th overall pick and a 2021 3rd round pick. More or less a reversal of the Clark trade, the Chiefs get solid return for Jones and move him to a team in need of more pass rush and a big DE to fill the void of FA Quinton Jefferson. The trade makes sense for both parties and I think the value is realistic. I really like Jones, he's a solid guy, but the money pile will be large to retain him and he's a liability against the run. That said, what he brings against the pass with his ability to collapse the pocket for pressure and to knock down passes will be an enormous loss. The Chiefs have to get a 1st round pick back on a deal involving Jones.

Extend Sammy Watkins for 2 years $18.0m including $6.0m signing bonus and converting $12.0m of his 2020 salary to signing bonus creating cap hits of $15.0m, $12.0m and $12.0m in 2020-2022 which frees up $6.0m of cap space in 2020. KC has to extend Watkins and lower that cap number for 2020 or they need to cut bait and run. I really love what Watkins does for this offense because he's a guy that can stretch the field, make YAC, and he doesn't drop passes. He's as good of a #2 as you an find in this league but the big thing for him is always whether or not he can stay healthy. That said, I'd like to keep him around and this offense humming and put more draft resources into the defense.

ERFA tender WR Marcus Kemp, OL Andrew Wylie, and TE Deon Yelder
Re-sign to veteran minimum deals S Jordan Lucas, FB Anthony Sherman, OG Stefen Wisniewski, TE Blake Bell, DT Mike Pennel, LB Reggie Ragland

Re-sign QB Matt Moore to a 1-year, $3.0m deal including a $1.0m signing bonus
Re-sign CB Bashaud Breeland to 3-year, $27.0m deal including $3.0m signing bonus, $3.5m fully guaranteed salary in 2020, and $3.0m roster bonuses in 2020 and 2021 (sim P. Amukamara)
Re-sign CB Kendall Fuller to a 1-year, $3.0m deal including a $500k signing bonus.
Pick up 5th year option on QB Patrick Mahomes then work out 4 year extension creating new money of $187.1m with $99.6 in new guarantees. Total deal becomes 6 years, $190.4m with $100.3m guaranteed.
Sign FA OC/G Graham Glasgow to a 4-year $44.5m deal including $11.0m signing bonus and $19.5m fully guaranteed at signing (sim M. Morse, T. Turner)

Draft:

1. (f/SEA) CB Damon Arnette, Ohio State (6'0" 195)
The Chiefs are going to have a need at corner, really no matter how you slice it. They have 3 free agents and Ward is a free agent after 2020. I really think the Chiefs will look to bring Breeland back as he was solid the entire year on the outside. I think he brings better coverage matchups than Fuller, who missed time to injury then rode the pine a bit. After that, I think Veach will do his due diligence and find a vet corner he can bring in on a 1-year, $2-3 million deal like he has the past couple of years which could be retaining Fuller for a year (like I have here). That said, they have to continue to add to their youth at the position and really improve the overall talent level on the boundary. I really enjoy watching Arnette play because he kind of has everything you look for in a corner. He has good size, he's extremely fast and quick, he mirrors routes, he gets physical with receivers, and he isn't afraid of contact. That said, he has a couple of things to work on in taking better angles to ball carriers and in not being so grabby at the top of routes. I think he's moved past the childish behavior and is going to be a strong player in this league.

1. LB Zach Baun, Wisconsin (6'3" 240)
I'm of the opinion that a first-round pick should go to fixing the biggest weakness on the team that you couldn't address in free agency. In this situation, I don't know that I addressed the biggest need first with a CB but I'm going to with this pick because I can't overlook the absolutely glaring lack of adequate linebacker play in 2 of the 3 positions. I really have grown to like the signing of Wilson at one spot, but Anthony Hitchens and whatever flavor of the day flanks the other side is atrocious. The Chiefs aren't locked into Hitchens, but the only way they can ditch him is with a June 1 designation and that really doesn't help with bringing in impactful free agents. That said, they need to work towards a world where they can separate from him in 2021. Much like when Joe Schoebert came out, who I was extremely high on, Wisconsin presents another linebacker in Baun who has a relentless motor with good size and great athleticism. Baun played a small edge at Wisconsin but don't see him having the bulk for that position in the pros. Baun looks to be an inside or strong-side linebacker in the pros with the ability to take on blocks, penetrate, and make plays in the backfield with his outstanding closing burst and great tackling. I think you can have a situation just like Schobert where you play this kid at outside linebacker in year one and let him get his feet wet learning how to be a full-time player in space, then you move him inside the following year.

2. OG Ben Bredeson, Michigan (6'5" 320)
Watching the Chiefs' offense spit and sputter for a good portion of the Super Bowl made it abundantly clear that the KC needs to do a better job of protecting Mahomes on the interior. Mahomes had little time and even fewer opportunities to step up into the pocket and take patented strikes down the field. Bredeson is one of my favorite interior lineman in this draft. He has excellent movement skills for his size and shows the ability to get out in front of the screen game. Bredeson is solid in pass protection and keeps his head on a swivel, always active looking for someone to block which can help a ton with Mahomes' ability to keep plays alive. He's also a typical Michigan offensive lineman that plays with nasty in the run game and looks to finish blocks through the whistle. I think Bredeson shows a lot of the attributes that attracted the franchise to Mitch Morse

3. DT DaVon Hamilton, Ohio State (6'4" 310)
If the Chiefs trade away Jones then it becomes important to find a DT in this draft that can collapse the pocket. Hamilton comes with only 1 year of starting experience but he was behind a log-jam of talent at Ohio State on that defensive front for his career. Hamilton burst out with 6 sacks in 2019 and constantly played in the opponent's backfield, including taking Biadasz for a ride to the QB. Hamilton has great burst off the snap, active hands with great technique to get off blockers, and closing speed and quickness to make tackles out away from him. If he had another year of productivity like 2019, he'd be in the conversation as a first-round pick.

4. WR Quartney Davis, Texas A&M (6'2" 200)
I have the Chiefs retaining Watkins so there is no immediate need for a WR but the Chiefs probably need to add one at some point in the draft. I don't know if you want the bottom half of your group all UDFA guys, and that's what we'd probably be looking at. I think more size is needed but you have to maintain that speed balance that makes this offense so hard to defend. That's what I really love about Davis is that he has that great speed and quickness and he's very solid running routes. He actually reminds me quite a bit of Watkins in terms of build and overall athleticism. There's so much talent at WR in this draft that it's incredibly difficult to project where guys would go. I think, in a normal draft, Davis is a 3rd round guy but I'm moving him down a tad her. This is a guy, once you get the ball in his hands, finds another gear and is extremely dangerous.

5. RB Michael Warren II, Cincinnati (5'11" 220)
The Chiefs really don't have much at running back when it all comes down to it. Damien Williams is great in flashes but then he disappears for chunks. Darrell Williams hasn't shown to be more than a situational player and Darwin Thompson doesn't look like he belongs in the NFL so far. All that said, the Chiefs need to add to their stable in some way and I think this year's draft class is stacked. Warren is a patient runner with good vision that sets up blocks, puts his foot in the ground, and hits the hole or the bounce to the outside with tremendous burst and power. For a back his size, he shows top-shelf straight-line speed and ability to take it to the house on any play. He has enough wiggle in the open field to make defenders miss and a really solid jump step. Warren shows the size and the attitude to get tough yards on first down and he hasn't put the ball on the ground. Warren is also a really solid pass-catcher out of the backfield and has shown solid vision and YAC ability in that regard. I dedicated a thread to this kid, so you bet he's going in a mock and might just be my permanent fixation at the position.


Roster

QB: P. Mahomes, M. Moore, K. Shurmur
RB: , Dam. Williams, M. Warren, Dar. Williams, D. Thompson
FB: A. Sherman
WR: T. Hill, S. Watkins, M. Hardman, Q. Davis, B. Pringle, M. Kemp
TE: Kelce, Bell, Yelder
OL: Fisher, Bredeson, Glasgow, Wylie, Schwartz, Rankin, Wisniewski, Reiter, Allegretti, Barton
DE: Clark, Okafor, Kpassagnon, Harris, Ward
DT: Nnadi, Saunders, Hamilton, Pennel, Speaks
LB: Wilson, Hitchens, Baun, Ragland, Niemann, O'Daniel
CB: Breeland, Ward, Arnette, Fuller, Fenton
S: Mathieu, Thornhill, Apke, Lucas, Watts
ST: Butker, Some UDFA Punter, Winchester.
[Reply]
pugsnotdrugs19 08:56 PM 02-10-2020
From the perspective of losing Jones, I love this outcome. Keeping Watkins would be incredible and with the scenario you’ve outlined, maybe he’d bite.

I think you’re very cheap on Fuller and Pennel, but I could be off. That draft class would be awesome.
[Reply]
kccrow 09:31 PM 02-10-2020
I agree that I would love the idea of keeping Watkins and I think he will jump on an extension and restructure. Where the numbers are may be +/- a million or so per year in my opinion. Most good #2's are in that $9m per range which is what the extension is. If he wants more than a 2-year $21m extension and move that salary to a bonus, then I'd cut bait. He's not worth that much and I think you could find adequate replacement. You might just change up what you do and go for a splash in FA at another position and grab a WR higher in the draft.


Depends alot on the market. If Fuller gets a starter offer, he could make more. As it stands he's a #3 CB and not too many teams pay more than 3-4m per for one. It's not important that the player is Fuller, necessarily. I think Veach can find a guy in that 2-3 range again.

As for Pennel, I don't see it. He's a rotational #3/4 DT and would make $910k on a vet min deal with maxed bonus. Not many DTs making over $1m per unless they are an every-down starter. Let's not forget he was going to be bagging groceries before the Chiefs pulled him in. His ceiling for me is $1.5m per, which really doesn't make or break the cap and I just don't see a team offering that.
[Reply]
RunKC 10:07 PM 02-10-2020
Fuller for $3 million? Dude hes getting at lest 3X that on the open market
[Reply]
The Franchise 10:19 PM 02-10-2020
Like I said in another thread that had the same trade.

Why and how are the Seahawks paying big contracts to both Clowney AND Jones?
[Reply]
Chief Northman 12:20 AM 02-11-2020
I like a lot of the legwork here crow.

The numbers have to make sense obviously, but I do think there are some guys that the Chiefs will just not let go because of how they value them...

Just spitballing here:

- Chiefs release Erving, Reiter, LDT and Colquitt saving just under $14 million on the cap (but accruing around $6.4 million in dead money.

- I’ll echo your take on Jones and Watkins: tagged and traded for a 1st and 3rd, while Watkins gets extended to create a bit of cap relief.

- ERFA contract for Wylie. Kemp, Wells and Yelder walk.
- Chiefs FA’s re-signed: Lucas, Sherman, Wis, Bell, Pennel, Moore, Reaser (all 1 year deals)
- Kendall Fuller extended for 3 years, $18 million. His versatility and ability is appreciated more than most would recognize.
-Emmanuel Ogbah extended 2 years, $14 million. Ascending player who had his campaign stopped short by injury. Will buffer against Okafor release in 2021.
- The following Chiefs WALK: Henne, Breeland (too pricey), X.Williams, Claiborne, Lee, McCoy, Robinson, Suggs, Ware, Ragland.

- Option/extension for Mahomes
- Sign FA CB Chris Harris - 1 year, $ 10 million
- Sign FA LB Joe Schobert - 3 years, $20 million
- Sign FA G Joe Thuney - 3 years, $ 33 million

DRAFT
* Chiefs acquire 1st (25) and 3rd (89) from Minnesota for DT Chris Jones.

1. (25) Curtis Weaver - DL - Boise State
- Weaver can contribute right away to a solid DE rotation but also kicks inside as a 3 tech in pass downs, hopefully replacing some of Jones’ production. He played as heavy as 290, sets an edge, and has exceptional power and bend.

1. (32) Trevon Diggs - CB - Alabama
- Diggs competes, is long, and physical. Sound like anyone? Very similar to Breeland in play style and is a prototype for what Spagnuolo likes on the outside.

TRADE: Chiefs trade (2) #63 and (3) #96 to the Rams for (2) #52

2. (52) D’Andre Swift - RB - Georgia
- Another weapon for the offense, Swift packs a punch in his 5’9” frame at 215 lbs., and he is fantastic in the passing game. His burst and elusiveness create more matchup nightmares for opposing defenses.

3. (89) Cesar Ruiz - C - Michigan
- A dependable anchor who has a varied skill set. Smart, tough and competent in both run blocking and pass protection.

4. (135) Jordyn Brooks - ILB - Texas Tech
- Brooks has a nose for the ball and surprising speed and agility for a 245 lb. thumper. He diagnoses quickly and his instincts are superb. Likely a 2 down backer in the pros, but you need these guys...

5. (177) Adam Trautman - TE - Dayton
High-pointing, hands catcher with nice open field speed for a big man: 6’6”, 253 lbs.
Trautman flexes out, but also plays in-line and is a willing blocker, but he is best used as a passing target. He did not face the greatest competition in college...
[Reply]
kccrow 04:10 AM 02-11-2020
Originally Posted by The Franchise:
Like I said in another thread that had the same trade.

Why and how are the Seahawks paying big contracts to both Clowney AND Jones?
For starters, you're assuming Seattle "must" pay Clowney. Personal opinion? I wouldn't and I'm not sure they do either. They didn't give up very much for a 1-year rental of a player that severely underperformed.

Clowney is alot of hype most of the time. He's had 9 or more sacks only twice in his 6-year career and never 10 or more. He's okay against the run, but not earth-shattering. I'd rather have Jones. I don't consider it a do both situation at all. They have 2019 1st round pick LJ Collier and they have Rasheem Green, who played pretty decent.

That said, if they do happen to pay Clowney, why would you ever offer significantly more than what Dee Ford got? I wouldn't.

I'd put a ceiling of $15m on year one if for some reason they do something stupid, and if that's the case they likely don't trade for Jones because they have to pay Ifedi, which is probably $10 per, a quarter of their roster is ERFA guys so there goes $4.5m, and they have 5 RFAs of which I see them tendering 4, which is another $8.5m. That ties up $38 of their available $50m in space, which doesn't leave enough for Jones.

What they gave up for the "must sign" Clowney:

LB Barkevious Mingo, who sucks and had a whole 6 tackles this year
LB Jacob Martin who registered an eye-popping 11 tackles on the year playing special teams
A 3rd round pick, and hell we've seen those get cut the same year they are drafted.

The Seahawks aren't on the hook for Clowney in the least.
[Reply]
kccrow 04:13 AM 02-11-2020
Originally Posted by RunKC:
Fuller for $3 million? Dude hes getting at lest 3X that on the open market
Based on what?

Like I said earlier, doesn't have to be Fuller. But... Fuller will be Steven Nelson lucky if he gets 3x that on the open market.

I don't know if he's severely overrated here or I'm blind to something. I just don't see a player that rode the pine a good majority of the season getting some big contract.
[Reply]
Wilson8 04:48 AM 02-11-2020
That would be a good offseason.

My simple draft list/request -

1. (32) - CB Bryce Hall, Virginia - I think he would fit very well with our defense. I watched him a lot last year (2018) while also watching Juan Thornhill. His injury from this year might allow him to still be there at 32.

2. (63) - LB Troy Dye, Oregon - 6-4 but light in weight (224 - 230) but I think he can gain some weight and still be quick. He moves like a Safety but still has some strength to battle and fight through blocks. He reminds me of how the 49ers use LB Fred Warner but I think Troy Dye can be better.

3. (96) - G Ben Bredeson, Michigan - Like him a lot. Actually I like most of the Michigan offensive line. He may not be here at 96, but if not, I am hoping that one of the other top Centers or Guards fall to the Chiefs.

4. (135??) - WR James Proche, SMU - In normal NFL draft years, I think he would be gone by now, but I think the deep draft will allow us to pick him up. Proche has some of the best hands in this draft class he also return punts and could fit right in with KC.

5. (176??) - CB Harrison Hand, Temple - I think Hand will probably be long gone by this time but several draft sites did not think he was all that good. When I watch him in games though, I think he could be a very good NFL corner.

Watch some games with these guys and see what you think
[Reply]
Wilson8 04:52 AM 02-11-2020
I hope we can keep Fuller but I think someone will pay him at least 3 year $18 M and probably higher.

A Super Bowl win makes lots of players sparkle and teams want.
[Reply]
Wilson8 04:54 AM 02-11-2020
Good job on your draft! We have mostly the same positions but just different players.
[Reply]
kccrow 09:27 PM 02-11-2020
Originally Posted by Wilson8:
I hope we can keep Fuller but I think someone will pay him at least 3 year $18 M and probably higher.

A Super Bowl win makes lots of players sparkle and teams want.
I agree, IF a team sees him as a #2 CB. His range, in that case, should be between 6 and 9 per. If they see him for what he is, which is a #3 nickel CB, then that value tends to lie between 2 and 3.5 which has two notable outliers, Nickell Robey-Coleman and Buster Skrine, who both come in around 5.5 per. OTC values him at just over 2 with an injury adjustment for up to 4, so I'd say I'm not the only one putting this type of value on him.

If I'm playing the law of averages, I'd venture to say it is far more likely you can sign him for 3 than not. If someone comes in and gives 6+, let him go. There are plenty of other options out there for 2-3 that can give you the same skill set. The Steven Nelson case is important and I don't forget it. You have an okay CB that's a very borderline #2, should be a 3, that gets 8.5 per from a franchise desperate for a CB. I'm not one that would pay that much for that particular level of play.

I'm hopeful the Chiefs can get him on a cheap 1-year deal. Give him a chance to see if he can up his play. He wasn't all that bad in 2018. That said, I'm paying Breeland before I'm paying Fuller.

And, not all could be bad with that. If Fuller gets a nice deal, then the Chiefs could very well be in line for a comp pick. Hell, they could be in line for a few comp picks depending on how they choose to handle free agency.
[Reply]
kccrow 09:30 PM 02-11-2020
Originally Posted by Wilson8:
That would be a good offseason.

My simple draft list/request -

1. (32) - CB Bryce Hall, Virginia - I think he would fit very well with our defense. I watched him a lot last year (2018) while also watching Juan Thornhill. His injury from this year might allow him to still be there at 32.

2. (63) - LB Troy Dye, Oregon - 6-4 but light in weight (224 - 230) but I think he can gain some weight and still be quick. He moves like a Safety but still has some strength to battle and fight through blocks. He reminds me of how the 49ers use LB Fred Warner but I think Troy Dye can be better.

3. (96) - G Ben Bredeson, Michigan - Like him a lot. Actually I like most of the Michigan offensive line. He may not be here at 96, but if not, I am hoping that one of the other top Centers or Guards fall to the Chiefs.

4. (135??) - WR James Proche, SMU - In normal NFL draft years, I think he would be gone by now, but I think the deep draft will allow us to pick him up. Proche has some of the best hands in this draft class he also return punts and could fit right in with KC.

5. (176??) - CB Harrison Hand, Temple - I think Hand will probably be long gone by this time but several draft sites did not think he was all that good. When I watch him in games though, I think he could be a very good NFL corner.

Watch some games with these guys and see what you think
I think the only one I haven't spent much time on is Proche.

I don't like Dye at all. In fact, I hate his play style. Do not want.

I'd shit myself if Bredeson makes it to 96.

Other than that, don't really think the rest is out of line. I like Hall quite a bit.
[Reply]
jjchieffan 10:17 PM 02-11-2020
I'm not sure that Fuller is even going to be considered as a true corner anymore. He finished out the season as a safety, and played much better there. He wouldn't be considered a number 3 at safety. He showed that he could start at safety and he does have corner skills. I think that prices him well above your $3 million range. But, hopefully he wants to win more rings and he will take an offer like that. But I seriously doubt it.
[Reply]
kccrow 05:02 PM 02-12-2020
Originally Posted by jjchieffan:
I'm not sure that Fuller is even going to be considered as a true corner anymore. He finished out the season as a safety, and played much better there. He wouldn't be considered a number 3 at safety. He showed that he could start at safety and he does have corner skills. I think that prices him well above your $3 million range. But, hopefully he wants to win more rings and he will take an offer like that. But I seriously doubt it.
I dunno, maybe. 33 Safeties in the entire league make over 3.25, so basically 1 per team. Only 22 make 6+. I haven't seen enough of him at safety, really, to determine if he can get up into that tier, but what I have seen I don't really think so. You never know. I think he's really overvalued here, but who knows. We'll see in about a month.
[Reply]
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