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Saccopoo Memorial Draft Forum>Welp. Looks like we need a RB.
KC Hawks 08:08 PM 11-30-2018
So who looks good in this upcoming draft?
[Reply]
UChieffyBugger 06:00 PM 12-03-2018
The fact is folks like to talk about "RB's are a dime a dozen and you can find a decent one In the mid rounds", but really the facts say otherwise. Look at the best RB's In the game right now.

Gurley= first round pick
Elliot= first round pick
Gordon= first round pick
Barcley= first round pick
Ingram= first round pick
McCaffrey= first round pick
Fournette= first round pick

Etc etc, so the VAST majority of the best backs have been picked In the first round. Granted some slip through the net like Bell, Hunt and Kamara, but if we really want to make sure our offense is great for many more seasons to come, then I'd be inclined to try and get the very best back we can. I mean even the Pats got Michel In the first round last season, The Seahawks got Penny In the first round also.

So imo if we're gonna get a RB, then we should try and get a potential transformative one. One who could be even better than Kareem moving forward. Because tbh could you imagine a Gurley, Gordan or Mccaffrey In this offense? It would be insane. Next draft could be perfect too as I don't see many teams needing to draft a back as most already have their guy and others already drafted one last year. So we should really have a good shot at the likes of Bryce Love and Damien Harris, two guys who look pretty decent to me.
[Reply]
pugsnotdrugs19 06:13 PM 12-03-2018
I don’t like the idea of investing in the RB position super high for any team, let alone a team that has the best quarterback in football at 23 years old.

Just look at the list of running backs who have won the last several Super Bowls. They just aren’t a necessary commodity to winning a title. Most teams go the committee route and it makes sense because it’s too easy to lock in on those stud backs and over use them. Teams key on them and offenses use them to a fault. (See the Chiefs 2015 before and after Jamaal)

I don’t mind using a 2nd round pick on one or anything, but the truth is that the drop off from even a stud to 2nd tier guy isn’t enough to warrant major investments. Look at the Cowboys right now. They have a freaking stud RB and it doesn’t even matter much because their QB sucks ass.
[Reply]
UChieffyBugger 06:18 PM 12-03-2018
Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19:
I donít like the idea of investing in the RB position super high for any team, let alone a team that has the best quarterback in football at 23 years old.

Just look at the list of running backs who have won the last several Super Bowls. They just arenít a necessary commodity to winning a title. Most teams go the committee route and it makes sense because itís too easy to lock in on those stud backs and over use them. Teams key on them and offenses use them to a fault. (See the Chiefs 2015 before and after Jamaal)

I donít mind using a 2nd round pick on one or anything, but the truth is that the drop off from even a stud to 2nd tier guy isnít enough to warrant major investments. Look at the Cowboys right now. They have a freaking stud RB and it doesnít even matter much because their QB sucks ass.
We'll most likely be picking late 20s unless we trade up. The facts are the facts, the majority of the very best RB's are taken in the first round. If you want to pick one In the later rounds in the hope of striking gold again then fine, but I'd rather get more of a certain thing than gamble again. Major defensive talents are not likely to be there when we pick In the first round anyway so why not try and get a stud RB to ensure that our strength gets stronger?
[Reply]
BryanBusby 06:26 PM 12-03-2018
Originally Posted by UChieffyBugger:
Gurley= first round pick
Elliot= first round pick
Gordon= first round pick
Barcley= first round pick
Ingram= first round pick
McCaffrey= first round pick
Fournette= first round pick

.
The Jaguars will be drafting in the top 5. I don't know who Barcley is, but I'm assuming you mean Barkley and the Giants will absolutely regret taking him over a QB.

Ingram is just a piece in a RB by committee and honestly Melvin Gordon hasn't been anything special. McCaffrey is running his mind off, and the Panthers are about to miss the playoffs again. They probably really wish they had taken Lattimore or Humphrey right now.

EE and Gurley have worked out, so that's 2 out of 7. gg
[Reply]
kccrow 06:29 PM 12-03-2018
Originally Posted by UChieffyBugger:
We'll most likely be picking late 20s unless we trade up. The facts are the facts, the majority of the very best RB's are taken in the first round. If you want to pick one In the later rounds in the hope of striking gold again then fine, but I'd rather get more of a certain thing than gamble again. Major defensive talents are not likely to be there when we pick In the first round anyway so why not try and get a stud RB to ensure that our strength gets stronger?
Silly. There's going to be some very good defensive lineman available at the end of the first simply due to the sheer volume of quality players coming out this year. There's even a few I'd spend a pick to move up for. You'll get a solid RB end of 2nd or end of 3rd this year because there isn't a back that'll likely go in round 1.
[Reply]
pugsnotdrugs19 06:47 PM 12-03-2018
Originally Posted by kccrow:
Silly. There's going to be some very good defensive lineman available at the end of the first simply due to the sheer volume of quality players coming out this year. There's even a few I'd spend a pick to move up for. You'll get a solid RB end of 2nd or end of 3rd this year because there isn't a back that'll likely go in round 1.
Right, and again beyond all this, itís clear you just donít need a superstar back to build a great team these days. For many teams they are the focal point of an offense and have been for the Chiefs for several years now, but when youíve got the QB thing figured out, itís a luxury position. I certainly donít want to trot trash out there, but we wonít be and I donít even think we are right now.
[Reply]
Buehler445 10:02 PM 12-03-2018
Originally Posted by UChieffyBugger:
The fact is folks like to talk about "RB's are a dime a dozen and you can find a decent one In the mid rounds", but really the facts say otherwise. Look at the best RB's In the game right now.

Gurley= first round pick
Elliot= first round pick
Gordon= first round pick
Barcley= first round pick
Ingram= first round pick
McCaffrey= first round pick
Fournette= first round pick

Etc etc, so the VAST majority of the best backs have been picked In the first round. Granted some slip through the net like Bell, Hunt and Kamara, but if we really want to make sure our offense is great for many more seasons to come, then I'd be inclined to try and get the very best back we can. I mean even the Pats got Michel In the first round last season, The Seahawks got Penny In the first round also.

So imo if we're gonna get a RB, then we should try and get a potential transformative one. One who could be even better than Kareem moving forward. Because tbh could you imagine a Gurley, Gordan or Mccaffrey In this offense? It would be insane. Next draft could be perfect too as I don't see many teams needing to draft a back as most already have their guy and others already drafted one last year. So we should really have a good shot at the likes of Bryce Love and Damien Harris, two guys who look pretty decent to me.
Yeah. Iím out on that deal.

I swear to fucking God I will quit football if the Chiefs have the best QB in modern football and decide NOPE. BUILD AROUND THE RUN GAME.

Done with football. Forever.
[Reply]
CoMoChief 12:03 AM 12-04-2018
The thing is...today's game is a QB/passing game, and Mahomes/Chiefs are taking this new offensive trend literally and then some. After seeing the Chiefs in 2018, teams are going to start loading up their offense with as many weapons as possible. Not saying teams don't already try to do that, but teams see what Mahomes, Hunt, Watkins, Hill and Kelce can do to them. Too many really good players to deal with and plan for, and teams get crosseyed and overwhelmed. Reid doesn't run the ball. The RB in this offense is an extension of the passing game. I know people like Ware, but he's not the back for this offense. Hunt was perfect for this offense, as we've seen..which makes this entire issue a big kick in the balls. Need someone more elusive, someone who doesn't run so upright and has better hands.

The 1st rd RB isn't as valuable as it once was. They're the most beat up, worn down players on the field with the shortest careers. No need to invest a lot of money and/or high draft picks for that position. RB's grow on trees. The difference in production from a 1st rd pick vs a late rd or UDFA is not much, at least on this team it wouldn't with the amount of talent on offense.

Team needs defense bad. I hope the Chiefs can resign Jones, sign a couple defensive guys in FA and use their 1st 3 picks all on defense. The good thing is, the defense is so bad, it's not going to matter what defensive players they select in the draft because they need help at every position, so they should be able to draft BPA. Then maybe some backup fatties on the OL in the later rds.
[Reply]
BryanBusby 01:28 PM 12-04-2018
"The difference in production from a 1st rd pick vs a late rd or UDFA is not much"

:-)
[Reply]
kccrow 03:36 PM 12-04-2018
Originally Posted by CoMoChief:
The difference in production from a 1st rd pick vs a late rd or UDFA is not much, at least on this team it wouldn't with the amount of talent on offense.
It actually kind of is. Now, going the UDFA route has some merit. If you want a good back otherwise then you're at least spending a day 2 pick.

Only really going to look at rushing yards (put the cutoff at 400) but there are backs that contribute more in the passing game than rushing game and plenty that are good at both. What you'll see in looking at the stats is that the guys that tend to be high on the list in rushing yards are also higher on the list in receiving yards by running backs, especially in the top 15.

1. T. Gurley (1,175 yds 15 TD)- Round 1/10
2. E. Elliott (1,150 yds 6 TD)- Round 1/4
3. S. Barkley (954 yd 8 TD)- Round 1/2
4. P. Lindsay (937 yds 8 TD) - UDFA
5. J. Conner (909 yds 12 TD) - Round 3/105
6. L. Miller (876 yds 3 TD) - Round 4/97
7. C. McCaffrey (863 yds 5 TD) - Round 1/8
8. A. Peterson (856 yds 7 TD) - Round 1/7
9. K. Hunt (824 yds 7 TD) - Round 3/86
10. M. Gordon (802 yds 9 TD) - Round 1/15
11. D. Johnson (761 yds 6 TD) - Round 3/86
12. J. Mixon (755 yds 5 TD) - Round 2/48
13. M. Brieda (744 yds 3 TD) - UDFA
14. A. Kamara (742 yds 11 TD) - Round 3/67
15. C. Carson (704 yds 4 TD) - Round 7/249
16. N. Chubb (694 yds 7 TD) - Round 2/35
17. I. Crowell (680 yds 6 TD) - UDFA
18. S. Michel (649 yds 5 TD) - Round 1/31
19. A. Jones (642 yds 7 TD) - Round 5/182
20. K. Johnson (641 yds 3 TD) - Round 2/43
21. P. Barber (635 yds 4 TD) - UDFA
22. F. Gore (616 yds 0 TD) - Round 3/65
23. J. Howard (612 yds 5 TD) - Round 5/150
24. M. Mack (583 yds 4 TD) - Round 4/143
25. T. Coleman (514 yds 2 TD) - Round 3/73
26. L. McCoy (478 yds 2 TD) - Round 2/53
27. D. Henry (474 yds 5 TD) - Round 2/45
28. M. Ingram (467 yds 4 TD) - Round 1/28
29. L. Murray (466 yds 5 TD) - Round 6/181
30. D. Lewis (464 yds 1 TD) - Round 5/149
31. A. Blue (446 yds 1 TD) - Round 6/181
32. D. Martin (445 yds 2 TD) - Round 1/31
33. K. Drake (439 yds 4 TD) - Round 3/73
34. A. Ekeler (430 yds 1 TD) - UDFA
35. A. Collins (411 yds 7 TD)- Round 5/171
36. T. Yeldon (401 yds 1 TD) - Round 2/36

Round 1 - 9 (25.0%)
Round 2 - 6 (16.7%)
Round 3 - 7 (19.4%)
Round 4 - 2 (5.6%)
Round 5 - 4 (11.1%)
Round 6 - 2 (5.6%)
Round 7 - 1 (2.8%)
UDFA - 5 (13.9%)


22/36 RBs (61.1%) with 400 or more yards so far are Day 2 or better picks.
15/23 RBs (65.2%) with 600 or more yards so far are Day 2 or better picks.
[Reply]
DJ's left nut 03:46 PM 12-04-2018
Originally Posted by kccrow:
It actually kind of is. Now, going the UDFA route has some merit. If you want a good back otherwise then you're at least spending a day 2 pick.

Only really going to look at rushing yards (put the cutoff at 400) but there are backs that contribute more in the passing game than rushing game and plenty that are good at both. What you'll see in looking at the stats is that the guys that tend to be high on the list in rushing yards are also higher on the list in receiving yards by running backs, especially in the top 15.


22/36 RBs (61.1%) with 400 or more yards so far are Day 2 or better picks.
15/23 RBs (65.2%) with 600 or more yards so far are Day 2 or better picks.
And the 600 yard mark doesn't mean much; Jordan Howard made that cut and that dude has been trash this year. Put it at 700, roll Chubb in there as he's really just been a backup for half the year and you end up at 75% of the RBs (12/16) have been taken in the 1st, 2nd or 3rd rounds.

I do think there's something to be said, however, for targeting a SPARQ champion in this system. I really liked Breida coming out for exactly that reason; dude's attributes jumped off the screen.

Now you may end up with a guy who's not a polished 'pure' runner doing that, but the way Reid uses schemes to get his guys into space does a lot of the heavy lifting there. You don't need to have vision as good as Hunts to succeed in this system if you're able to identify the hole and explode into it. Know this system and be a powerful athlete and you'll probably be somewhat useful.

If the draft doesn't come together and you're left taking someone like Wes Hills in the 5th....eh, that's not the end of the world.
[Reply]
DJ's left nut 03:57 PM 12-04-2018
What about Ty Johnson? That's another 'Kamara candidate' IMO. Very much an underutilized guy at Maryland due to them having a guy who's probably just a better all-purpose back than him (or at the very least a higher pedigree guy). McFarland would keep a lot of really good backs on the bench.

Johnson isn't a big back but he isn't slight either. He's compact and strong - doesn't run with the kind of tenacity Hunt does but really, who does?

If you're trying to replace Hunt, you're looking at a different class because Hunt turned out to have 1st round ability and I'm just not sure we'll find that in this class. Maybe Harris, maybe Montgomery and a healthy Anderson would qualify as well. But I'm not seeing a guy in this draft that I'd say "yeah, there's a 1st round back" without hesitation.

I think Johnson is one of those 'absence of evidence is not evidence of absence' kind of finds. I don't see a reason why he CAN'T be a good RB; the tools are all there. There might be some vision questions but he's a definite potential HR hitter. He'd need some coaching up (dance less; hit the hole sooner/harder) but that's what we're gonna need to do if we're hoping to keep the investment in the position fairly reasonable.
[Reply]
kccrow 03:57 PM 12-04-2018
Agree DJ. The higher the yards you go the more the percentage goes up (800 yds is 80%) etc. Good backs come along every year but the best ones require a high pick, generally.

As for SPARQ champ, I just don't see it with Wes Hills but maybe he'll test better than what I see on the field.

Keep an eye on Maryland's Ty Johnson. He's got some wheels.
[Reply]
DJ's left nut 04:04 PM 12-04-2018
Originally Posted by kccrow:
Agree DJ. The higher the yards you go the more the percentage goes up (800 yds is 80%) etc. Good backs come along every year but the best ones require a high pick, generally.

As for SPARQ champ, I just don't see it with Wes Hills but maybe he'll test better than what I see on the field.

Keep an eye on Maryland's Ty Johnson. He's got some wheels.
ha!

Beat ya by about 30 seconds.

I'm thinking he might be my guy as well. I think he'll stay off some radars and Andy can put him to good use.

I agree with you on Hills; I'm just going off some admittedly dated scouting reports from his days in Delaware. He doesn't look as fast as people say he is. The reports are that he can move and at his size, you'll see some nice speed scores if that's the case.
[Reply]
pugsnotdrugs19 04:12 PM 12-04-2018
I don't think we need to be bending over backwards to find another elite back. If we stumble onto one again (like Hunt, Charles), then so be it. Awesome. But I think in the big picture, its far down on the list of needs for this team going forward.

If we want to build a dynasty under Mahomes and Reid, the best course of action is to get that damn defense to a respectable level and do it ASAP. The weapons to be an elite offense are already in place and not going anywhere soon.

But my thinking here is that Mahomes, while he may never have another 50+ season again like he may have this year, is probably always going to get the absolute most out of the guys around him and he will produce numbers to justify that. Just load up that defense and take some pressure off of the kid.
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