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Saccopoo Memorial Draft Forum>Happy Thanksgiving Mock (11/22)
kccrow 08:36 PM 11-22-2018
Happy Thanksgiving Everyone. While you're eating your pumpkin pie, I present you this to chew on...

Extensions

WR Tyreek Hill: It's imperative to lock up the team's most dynamic player long-term and give Mahomes a weapon for the foreseeable future. Hill must be retained and he won't get cheaper.
5 years/$95.0m contract extension with $65m in guarantees, $42m guaranteed at signing, and $20m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 6.097 2020: 18.75 2021: 19.25 2022: 19.75 2023: 18.25 2024: 15.00
Notes: Hill will earn the NFL Proven Performance Escalator for the last year of his rookie deal which means his base salary will increase to the Right of First Refusal tender amount. That amount was $1.907 million in 2018 and increases by the percentage the cap increases with a minimum of 5% and a maximum of 10%. If the NFL carries through with an approximate 6% increase in the cap, then that base will be $2.02 million, which was used in the 2019 cap estimate.

DL Chris Jones: I've been preaching the same thing Andy Reid mentioned not too long ago: the quickest route to the QB is a straight line and having defensive lineman that can get after them up the middle is better than good edge rushers in today's NFL that sees QBs get the ball out quicker than ever. Jones has stepped up his game considerably and we should project that to continue.
5 years, $85.0m contract extension with $42.5m in guarantees, $36.0m guaranteed at signing, $17.5m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 5.483 2020: 15.75 2021: 16.75 2022: 16.75 2023: 16.50 2024: 16.75

2019 Cap Effect (includes Hill PPE): +$8.8m

Restructures
SS Eric Berry: Agrees to convert $8.0m of base salary in 2019 to a signing bonus, freeing up $6.0m in cap space for 2019. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 10.50 2020: 15.50 2021: 18.00 2022: 16.00
Notes: Berry has offseason surgery to repair the Haglund's deformity in his heel and will rehab throughout the summer. We actually see him play before December in 2019!

2019 Cap Effect: -$6.0m

Tags/Tenders

ED Dee Ford: Franchise Tag estimated $15.4m
Notes: Despite the fact that Ford has grown on me, I'd look to replace him long-term and franchise him for the short-term. This team has some large contracts to absorb over the coming years and 2 edge rushers on $100m deals just isn't a good idea.
FS Jordan Lucas: RFA Original Round Tender estimated $2.02m
OC Austin Reiter: RFA Original Round Tender estimated $2.02m
DL Justin Hamilton: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus
PK Harrison Butker: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus
WR Markus Kemp: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus
WR Gehrig Deiter: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus
TE Alex Ellis: ERFA Tender estimated $645k + $30k bonus

2019 Cap Effect: +$22.55m

Free Agent Signings

FS Tre Boston (ARZ): Boston has been as productive as many of the lucrative players who's names get tossed about, such as Eric Reid and Earl Thomas. Boston took a much cheaper contract than Reid in 2018 and could come at a decent savings. He should be a guy on Veach's radar.
4 years/$31.0m with $12.5m guaranteed at signing, $8.0m signing bonus and another $5.0m guaranteed if on the roster the 5th day of the 2020 league year. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 7.00 2020: 7.50 2021: 8.00 2020: 8.50

TE Maxx Williams (BAL): Williams has had alot of injuries throughout his career but he's still extremely young and has flashed what made him a high round pick. He'd make an excellent number two type with solid hands, route running, and blocking ability.
3 years/$9.0m with $1.5m signing bonus, and $1.0m roster bonuses in 2020 and 2021 if he's on the roster the 5th day of the new league year. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 2.00 2020: 3.25 2021: 3.75

CB E.J. Gaines (CLE): A native of Lee's Summit, Gaines may want to return home. Gaines is a solid CB but has an injury history. He'd be best as a slot CB where he wouldn't be on the field all the time and could replace Nelson. He should come relatively cheap given that he has missed some games this year after signing a 1 year deal for $4m in Cleveland.
3 years/$10m with $4.0m guaranteed and $2.0m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 2.70 2020: 3.30 2021: 4.00

2019 Cap Effect: +$11.70m

Free Agent Re-Signings

RB Spencer Ware: Ware is just a solid all-around back and that makes it difficult to get rid of him. Once he was healthy, Reid immediately turned to him as Hunt's primary backup and he's been nothing but a team player. I think he's brought back on a friendly deal.
2 year/$3.0m with $500k roster bonuses in each year. Estimated Cap Hits: 2019: $1.40 2020: 1.60

All PS on Minimal Deals that likely don't affect Top-51.

2019 Cap Effect: +$1.40m

Let Walk

DE Allen Bailey - Bailey has definitely ran too hot and cold since receiving his deal and his performance against the run has dropped considerably. It's time to move on.
FB Anthony Sherman - Sherman is probably the best pure fullback in the NFL and he's excellent on special teams, but he's not especially worth tying up a couple million per year on. The league is moving to more of an H-back roll at the position where receiving is a big deal. Sherman is a good receiver, but he's a tank going down the field. I look for him to move on.
CB Orlando Scandrick - Scandrick has been a nice stop-gap, but certainly not the answer long-term and his lapses can be atrocious. If he can be brought back on the cheap, I'd re-sign him but it'd have to be cheap.
TE Demetrius Harris - He never developed on his last contract enough to bother retaining him and his hands are stone. Time to move on.
FS Josh Shaw - Hasn't really been on the field much to flash anything. Could be a vet min re-signing but I'm not banking on it.
RB Damien Williams - Doesn't have any noteworthy production to bother bringing back.
OC Mitch Morse - Too many concussions and too much time in the tub. He's great when he's on the field but you can't give the guy a contract with that history.
FS Ron Parker - He was dumped last year for good reason but brought back to continue his garbage play. The team really needs a much better solution long-term.
WR De'Anthony Thomas - A nice kick return option if he's healthy, but he's always missing time. It's time to move on and find a healthier alternative.
DE Jarvis Jenkins - Doesn't provide much and is getting long in the tooth. See ya.
OLB Frank Zombo - See above. Wouldn't be here if not for injury.
CB Steven Nelson - Will more than likely cost more than he's worth to retain, similar to Albert Wilson last year. Someone will pay this kid $7-8m per on a nice deal but that team shouldn't be the Chiefs.
OLB Nate Orchard - Garbage.
ILB Terrence Smith - Definitely has shown nothing to make me think the Chiefs should retain him for any reason, and certainly not at a $2m tender. Adios amigo.
WR Chris Conley - The problem I have with Chris Conley is not his talent, it's that the Chiefs have some serious money tied up in the position and you start looking at what Buehler talks about in terms of salary per units of production and you have a hard time fitting Conley in. He's a solid receiver that's going to catch the balls he's thrown but when he gives you 1 catch a game most of the time then you gotta tell yourself you can find that production from a really cheap guy.

Draft

Estimated Rookie Pool: $6.46m
2019 Cap Effect: +$2.50m

1. CB Kris Boyd, Texas (6'0" 195)
Has good size, solid backpedal and transitional footwork, and gets his hands on an insane amount of footballs. Has played alot of off-man and press at Texas. The Chiefs absolutely have to address the CB position early in the draft.
2. DE Jaylon Ferguson, Lousiana Tech (6'5" 255)
Solid overall defensive end with good getoff, and solid hold at the point against the run. Needs to gain strength, especially in his upper body. Future replacement for Dee Ford.
2. DT Gerald Willis III, Miami (6'3" 290)
Great initial burst and overall quickness. Comes with a history of off-field family issues and that will keep him out of early consideration but could be a steal. Willis is that type that, when going forward, wreaks havoc and the Chiefs could use a guy like that consistently opposite Jones.
3. WR Andy Isabella, UMass (5'9" 185)
Insane burst off the line, open field quickness and agility, and overall top-end speed (reportedly 4.3's). Literally uncoverable at times. Torched very good defensive backs, including Georgia's DeAndre Baker. A prototypical NFL slot receiver that could step right in and replace D'Anthony Thomas and Chris Conley.
5. DT Kingsley Keke, Texas A&M (6'4" 305)
Another defensive lineman with good initial burst and quickness that can disrupt the LOS. The Chiefs will have to double-dip at DE whether it be in the draft or a combination of that and FA.
6. LB Ulysees Gilbert III, Akron (6'0" 225)
Off-ball, weakside linebacker with outstanding range and speed. Excellent coverage linebacker. If the Chiefs don't go after a top-tier starter, they need to at least fill in the depth and special teams. I'll walk along with Direkshun here and assume the Chiefs don't go LB early.
7. OL Sean Rawlings, Ole Miss (6'5" 295)
Athletic offensive lineman with experience at OT and C, but looks best inside. He'll need to get stronger at the pro level.

Total Estimated Remaining Cap Space: $5.65m

Roster (Not representative of 53)

QB: Patrick Mahomes, Chad Henne, Chase Litton
RB: Kareem Hunt, Darrel Williams, Spencer Ware
FB:
TE: Travis Kelce, Maxx Williams, Alex Ellis, Deon Yelder, David Wells
WR: Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Demarcus Robinson, Andy Isabella, Byron Pringle, Marcus Kemp, Gehrig Dieter
OT: Eric Fisher, Mitchell Schwartz, Andrew Wylie
OG: Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, Cameron Erving, Ryan Hunter, Khalil McKenzie
OC: Austin Reiter, Sean Rawlings, Jimmy Murray
DE: Chris Jones, Gerald Willis III, Kingsley Keke, Justin Hamilton, Joey Ivie
NT: Derrick Nnadi, Xavier Williams
OLB: Justin Houston, Dee Ford, Breeland Speaks, Jaylon Ferguson, Tanoh Kpassagnon, Rob McCray
ILB: Anthony Hitchens, Dorian O'Daniel, Ben Niemann, Reggie Ragland, Ulysees Gilbert III
CB: Kris Boyd, Kendall Fuller, E.J. Gaines, Charvarius Ward, Tremon Smith, D'Montre Wade
FS: Tre Boston, Jordan Lucas, Eric Murray
SS: Eric Berry, Daniel Sorensen, Armani Watts
ST: Harrison Butker, Dustin Colquitt, James Winchester
[Reply]
Direckshun 08:49 PM 11-22-2018
This is a very fun mock. Great work.

I’ll go out and say a controversial view: I like our safeties. I think you should cut Sorensen to save money, and roll with Berry/Watts/Lucas next year with some Murray thrown in.

What do you think of the Chiefs acquiring Earl Thomas on a cheap one year deal to prove his health, kccrow?
[Reply]
kccrow 09:09 PM 11-22-2018
Originally Posted by Direckshun:
This is a very fun mock. Great work.

Iíll go out and say a controversial view: I like our safeties. I think you should cut Sorensen to save money, and roll with Berry/Watts/Lucas next year with some Murray thrown in.

What do you think of the Chiefs acquiring Earl Thomas on a cheap one year deal to prove his health, kccrow?
Appreciate the input. I'm not sure about rolling only with what we have at safety. I think it's been an issue of health and performance there. I'm of the oppopsite opinion that the Chiefs have to inject a player there that can be a playmaker at FS. I liked Boston as a FA last year and was really disappointed the Chiefs didn't bring him in. I really like Thornhill in the 2nd round as well. I don't think you can trust this group without a significant addition. That's my take though.

As for Thomas, I think he's going to be on the radar. To answer your question directly, I don't think a broken leg is necessarily a prerequisite to a "prove it" contract unlike an ACL or Achilles or something like that BUT this is the 2nd time in 3 seasons that Thomas has had a lower leg fracture. He's a smaller player and you always worry about things like that and now it's becoming a regular thing. That said, I think he's going to be looking for a 3-4 year deal and I think he's going to be asking for that 10+ per range. He's very good but I'm not sure that's a price tag you want to pay for him at this stage of his career. The last thing the Chiefs need is two safeties that like to alternate years being on IR taking up 30 million in cap.
[Reply]
pugsnotdrugs19 09:15 PM 11-22-2018
I like this mock a ton. I’d keep Sherman though. He’s a real leader and busts his ass. I think he’s a great guy to keep around as long as he’s a solid player.

I’d love to see our DL and secondary filled with all of that youth with upside.
[Reply]
BryanBusby 09:20 PM 11-22-2018
I don't like it. Too much Defense in a league that doesn't care much for Defense.
[Reply]
RunKC 10:11 PM 11-22-2018
Big fan of this one crow.

Unfortunately this class is extremely underwhelming on the offensive side of the ball, but it’s a damn good class for defense and pass rushers. That’s why I’m a big fan of the Maxx Williams FA signing.

Here’s a recent mock. Looks like defense will headline:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/247spor...125072333/Amp/

I bet Veach will look for replacements for Allen Bailey and Dee Ford in this draft.
[Reply]
The Pest 11:46 PM 11-22-2018
Originally Posted by RunKC:
Big fan of this one crow.

Unfortunately this class is extremely underwhelming on the offensive side of the ball, but itís a damn good class for defense and pass rushers. Thatís why Iím a big fan of the Maxx Williams FA signing.

Hereís a recent mock. Looks like defense will headline:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/247spor...125072333/Amp/

I bet Veach will look for replacements for Allen Bailey and Dee Ford in this draft.
Tillery in the 1st round? Sign me the fuck up.

Tillery - Nnadi - Jones
[Reply]
pugsnotdrugs19 11:46 PM 11-22-2018
I’ll be really interested to see if Tanoh is traded next offseason. I’m just not sure if they see him as a fit here at this point. He basically never plays, he wasn’t Veach’s guy, and he’s a questionable scheme fit to begin with.
[Reply]
RunKC 12:00 AM 11-23-2018
Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19:
I’ll be really interested to see if Tanoh is traded next offseason. I’m just not sure if they see him as a fit here at this point. He basically never plays, he wasn’t Veach’s guy, and he’s a questionable scheme fit to begin with.
We need to trade him. Even for a mid round pick. He clearly isn’t valued here.
[Reply]
ntexascardfan 12:16 AM 11-23-2018
As a Longhorns fan I'm not sure how I feel about Kris Boyd at the end of the first.

He's a poor man's Marcus Peters, imo. He'll have brilliant plays, but his aggressive play gets him burnt a few times a game...he had a tough stretch of games against WVU and OSU, but played well against Tech + ISU. He also still has a ton of maturing to do.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Boyd slide to the 2nd/3rd round by draft day.

Amani Oruwariye is my favorite corner in the draft who I think will be there at the end of the first. He has size and is physical in press and savvy in zone coverage.
[Reply]
CoMoChief 12:43 PM 11-23-2018
like most of the mock, except the 1st two picks.
[Reply]
BryanBusby 01:29 PM 11-23-2018
I'd probably lean towards grabbing Lindstrom with the first pick, as much as I don't care for fatties early. Cam Erving is a sack of dicks and the fact he was blown by so much by Donald (while Donald is a amazing player, very much yes....would of liked to of seen more fight by Cam) is pitiful, along with his inability to fall in a goddamn football.

Lindstrom would be a fantastic fit here and we can't have Pat taking a beating like he got in LA. The hits are really starting to pile up.

I'd grab a combo of DL, WR, CB on Friday and some athletic dudes with the rest.

Emanuel Hall, Terry Beckner Jr, Joejuan Williams would be cool with me
[Reply]
kccrow 04:53 PM 11-23-2018
Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19:
Iíll be really interested to see if Tanoh is traded next offseason. Iím just not sure if they see him as a fit here at this point. He basically never plays, he wasnít Veachís guy, and heís a questionable scheme fit to begin with.
Originally Posted by RunKC:
We need to trade him. Even for a mid round pick. He clearly isnít valued here.
Good question. I certainly think you have to entertain the option but you probably aren't getting much, 6th or 7th.

Basically, both him and Speaks left me scratching my head when they made the decision to move them to OLB... Both looked like guys you add some weight to and put at DE. I mean, Tanoh, you have a guy that's 6'7" and 289 pounds running a 4.83 coming out. You add 10-15 more pounds to his frame and he's still probably running 4.9. The guy is a freak. He has 35.5" arms... Put him at 3-4DE and let him get after shit like Jones. Why on Earth do you ever put a guy like that at OLB. He's never going to be quite fluid enough with those long legs. Let him use those legs to leverage his way to the QB from the interior.
[Reply]
kccrow 04:57 PM 11-23-2018
Originally Posted by ntexascardfan:
As a Longhorns fan I'm not sure how I feel about Kris Boyd at the end of the first.

He's a poor man's Marcus Peters, imo. He'll have brilliant plays, but his aggressive play gets him burnt a few times a game...he had a tough stretch of games against WVU and OSU, but played well against Tech + ISU. He also still has a ton of maturing to do.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Boyd slide to the 2nd/3rd round by draft day.

Amani Oruwariye is my favorite corner in the draft who I think will be there at the end of the first. He has size and is physical in press and savvy in zone coverage.
I like Oruwariye as well but I do still question his speed. His length seems to bail him out alot at the college level.

I'm curious for more from you about Boyd. I never got the sense that he was anywhere near as immature as Peters. I know he has some issues but I'd love to know if there's more that I'm not seeing there. He is aggressive, but he seems to constantly get better. I don't watch him every single game though like you. Is it aggressiveness getting him torched at times or is it failure to recognize double-moves, etc? One is learning the game better and the other is learning self-control. Do you perceive him as one that can do either? Give me more man.
[Reply]
kccrow 05:20 PM 11-23-2018
Originally Posted by BryanBusby:
I'd probably lean towards grabbing Lindstrom with the first pick, as much as I don't care for fatties early. Cam Erving is a sack of dicks and the fact he was blown by so much by Donald (while Donald is a amazing player, very much yes....would of liked to of seen more fight by Cam) is pitiful, along with his inability to fall in a goddamn football.

Lindstrom would be a fantastic fit here and we can't have Pat taking a beating like he got in LA. The hits are really starting to pile up.

I'd grab a combo of DL, WR, CB on Friday and some athletic dudes with the rest.

Emanuel Hall, Terry Beckner Jr, Joejuan Williams would be cool with me
Lindstrom is a stud. That said, I think there's enough talent in-house right now that the Chiefs don't have to go Round 1 on a lineman. If they do, I'd prefer it to be at OC. The one guy that would give me serious pause and consideration is Dalton Risner. He could play OC, OG, or RT in the league. I think he ends up a Viking though. I wouldn't be opposed to it, as I'm all for protecting Pat. I'd prefer Wylie at LG and LDT at RG as the starters next year. For some reason, the Chiefs love them some Erving though. He's improved, but he still has his lapses.
[Reply]
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