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Saccopoo Memorial Draft Forum>The decision on Steven Nelson is getting harder.
Direckshun 08:29 AM 11-09-2018
I have been very comfortable with the idea of pretty much dumping out our entire CB personnel this coming offseason and reloading through free agency splashes (Ronald Darby, anyone?) and multiple draft picks.

But listening to Locked On Chiefs this morning, Steven Nelson and Orlando Scandrick are in the entire league's top ten for "passer rating against."

Now, the decision on Scandrick isn't that hard. You float a one year contract to him, he's old, if he takes it that's fine, if not he's old you let him walk etc.

Nelson, however, is peaking right now. I don't know if he's who I want as a Bob Sutton starter on the outside, which seems to require more length and elite talent, but he's a slam dunk elite #3. But he probably knows he's a starter in the NFL for at least 10 teams in this league, so he could be demanding starter money.

And if you let him walk, you better be prepared to spend more for a starting outside corner, and Nelson is the most "known" a quantity as you're going to get.

What do we do about Steven Nelson this coming offseason?
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O.city 12:36 PM 11-10-2018
When you play man coverage, you don’t look back for the ball.
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bigjosh 01:08 PM 11-10-2018
Originally Posted by O.city:
When you play man coverage, you donít look back for the ball.


Yes you do, unless you get burnt and have to make up ground like is often the case with our corners.
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DJ's left nut 02:22 PM 11-10-2018
Originally Posted by bigjosh:
Yes you do, unless you get burnt and have to make up ground like is often the case with our corners.
You're among the large swath of individuals that don't get man coverage right.

Man coverage is hopping on the bull and riding it for as long as you can while you hope the buzzer sounds before you get bucked. There's NOTHING easy about man and no, very very few players are constantly able to get their heads around in man because they're route matching and just reacting every time.

Yes, sometimes in an off man kind of situation you can read a hitch route and drive on it for a pick, sure. But on those downfield routes, you read your WR and you get a hand up 90% of the time.

Man coverage isn't a flashy style, it's isn't aesthetically pleasing and it never will be for physical corners like Nelson and Scandrick. It's about getting out there and disrupting passes by hook or by crook. And on the balls you're talking about (presumably deep balls), rarely do guys get their heads around and make plays on the ball. On other passes - the balls over the middle; crossers and things like that, Nelson does a nice job of playing the ball.

I reiterate, you'll be hard pressed to find a person on this board that's been more critical of Nelson than me. It's kinda become a shtick because it annoys Staylor and that Oregon State fan we have 'round here. I wasn't going to be an easy convert of his because I've never really believed in him and he was hot garbage last season. But he's been genuinely good this year. He may be dogshit from this point forward but there's no argument that he hasn't been one of the better corners in the AFC to this point in the year.
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jjchieffan 03:55 PM 11-10-2018
You would think that our corners would learn to quit jumping ship. Name me one DB for te Chiefs that has had an event decent career since leaving the team during Sutton's tenure. Peters, Smith,Gaines, they all had a major drop off. Yeah, they might get a better contract, but if they don't live up to that contract and get cut, are they really gaining anything? Nelson should look at the facts and take what the Chiefs offer.
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DJ's left nut 04:10 PM 11-10-2018
Originally Posted by jjchieffan:
You would think that our corners would learn to quit jumping ship. Name me one DB for te Chiefs that has had an event decent career since leaving the team during Sutton's tenure. Peters, Smith,Gaines, they all had a major drop off. Yeah, they might get a better contract, but if they don't live up to that contract and get cut, are they really gaining anything? Nelson should look at the facts and take what the Chiefs offer.
Every one of those 2nd contracts come down to the first 2, maybe 3 seasons for the middle of the road FAs.

Sure, the top tier guys are usually locked in for 4-5 years, but for everyone else they can be escaped after 2. And I'm absolutely certain the players (or at least their agents) are cognizant of that fact and are just looking for the most they can get in the first 2 years. For those guys, they're largely set for life after those 2 seasons anyway.

Maybe if we're talking a million or so in difference they'd be inclined to stay, but I don't think that's usually the case. I think most of the guys we're losing are guys that are getting quite a bit more up front than we're willing to offer and I don't fault them for that.
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bigjosh 07:29 PM 11-10-2018
Originally Posted by jjchieffan:
You would think that our corners would learn to quit jumping ship. Name me one DB for te Chiefs that has had an event decent career since leaving the team during Sutton's tenure. Peters, Smith,Gaines, they all had a major drop off. Yeah, they might get a better contract, but if they don't live up to that contract and get cut, are they really gaining anything? Nelson should look at the facts and take what the Chiefs offer.


Flowers and Carr looked pretty good when they left.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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HemiEd 09:21 PM 11-10-2018
Originally Posted by bigjosh:
Flowers and Carr looked pretty good when they left.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Was Sutton the DC when they left? That was the qualifier statement but I really don't remember. I am pretty sure he wasn't but could be wrong.
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kccrow 10:35 PM 11-10-2018
I've said before that I think the floor on re-signing Nelson is 7 per. Honestly, I'd think it'll be higher if he continues playing like he has this season. I'd much rather spend more money on Darby than re-sign Nelson but I don't know if there'd be another CB I'd spend more on. If you can't get Darby, then I think you try to retain Nelson but anything pushing 8 per and higher you have to back out. I'm honestly scared at 7 per because he's been very inconsistent.
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bigjosh 11:34 PM 11-10-2018
Originally Posted by HemiEd:
Was Sutton the DC when they left? That was the qualifier statement but I really don't remember. I am pretty sure he wasn't but could be wrong.


I think flowers was. I think the original cb tandem with Sutton was flowers/Smith
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DJ's left nut 11:49 AM 11-12-2018
Originally Posted by kccrow:
I've said before that I think the floor on re-signing Nelson is 7 per. Honestly, I'd think it'll be higher if he continues playing like he has this season. I'd much rather spend more money on Darby than re-sign Nelson but I don't know if there'd be another CB I'd spend more on. If you can't get Darby, then I think you try to retain Nelson but anything pushing 8 per and higher you have to back out. I'm honestly scared at 7 per because he's been very inconsistent.
I think you have to swallow hard and let him walk.

The "we have plenty of cap space!!!" crowd needs to bust out a calculator and have a sobering conversation regarding FA contracts and who we really want to keep.

Nelson's a nice player but has no standout skills. Meanwhile Ford and Jones absolutely do and those fellas won't be cheap. Fuller has found his form and while Nelson's been better over the course of the season, Fuller's ascension has mapped the defense's overall improvement; he's been better than Nelson over the last 5-6 games, IMO.

Obviously Hill is a consideration as well.

We just can't keep them all and I wouldn't keep Nelson over a single one of those guys. Don't cry for Steven - he gwon get paid. I just don't think the Chiefs are in a position to be the team that pays him. Hell, even if they move on from Houston and Berry I don't think there's a way to sensibly fit him into the teams long-term cap structure at a market figure. If nothing else, they need to remember to bank rollover when able.

There are going to be some very very hard decisions to make and when you see a lunchpail player having his best season in a contract year with no standout skills to speak of and no real upside built into the deal...man, you just gotta cut bait there.
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Buehler445 12:25 PM 11-12-2018
Originally Posted by O.city:
Scandrick has been fine but he’s old.
And very much degrading physically.

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
I think you have to swallow hard and let him walk.

The "we have plenty of cap space!!!" crowd needs to bust out a calculator and have a sobering conversation regarding FA contracts and who we really want to keep.

Nelson's a nice player but has no standout skills. Meanwhile Ford and Jones absolutely do and those fellas won't be cheap. Fuller has found his form and while Nelson's been better over the course of the season, Fuller's ascension has mapped the defense's overall improvement; he's been better than Nelson over the last 5-6 games, IMO.

Obviously Hill is a consideration as well.

We just can't keep them all and I wouldn't keep Nelson over a single one of those guys. Don't cry for Steven - he gwon get paid. I just don't think the Chiefs are in a position to be the team that pays him. Hell, even if they move on from Houston and Berry I don't think there's a way to sensibly fit him into the teams long-term cap structure at a market figure. If nothing else, they need to remember to bank rollover when able.

There are going to be some very very hard decisions to make and when you see a lunchpail player having his best season in a contract year with no standout skills to speak of and no real upside built into the deal...man, you just gotta cut bait there.
You’re right. Mac459 texted me the top 30 or so OLB guys. Christ. I think you’re going to let ford walk too. I’m not opposed to tagging him, but there is a very low probability he’d be a chief if I’m making the call.

I’m very much a production per unit salary cap guy. Guys that hit that top tier of contracts are just outrageous. It looks to me like Nelson is going to get fat paid and I’m convinced it needs to be by the NOT chiefs. I think you offer them a reasonable contract but don’t overpay.
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O.city 12:30 PM 11-12-2018
Yeah, Ford is gonna get broken off. He's gonna be right there with the upper echelon guys I'd think.

You might get him to do a deal similar to Melvin Ingram and if so, you've gotta do that.
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DJ's left nut 02:24 PM 11-12-2018
Originally Posted by O.city:
Yeah, Ford is gonna get broken off. He's gonna be right there with the upper echelon guys I'd think.

You might get him to do a deal similar to Melvin Ingram and if so, you've gotta do that.
Gotta get it done in-season.

If he sees FA, he's a tag or he's gone.

Here's the thing with the tag - it's just a bad decision generally here, IMO. Either you trust the guy or you don't.

To the "make him prove it" crowd - If you don't trust him to play well next year, don't spend $18 million keeping him here for another year because that's money that can go into keeping Jones and/or Fuller. That's gonna be his tag cost and if you don't think he can go out there and be a premier pass rusher again, you simply don't do that.

And if you DO trust him and think he'll be worth that $18 million and then he plays to that level, you find yourself in a situation where he's gonna cost $22.5 under the cap to keep the following year. Now you're $40 million into him over 2 seasons.

Meanwhile, I think you can keep him at $45 million over the first three.

I've waffled on this one but ultimately I think I trust him. I think I'd go ahead and approach him with 4 yr deal for maybe $65 million and $45 million in the first 3. And if I can't make that work out, then I'd tag/trade him as Crow suggested.

Kicking the can doesn't make sense with him, IMO. Either you think he'll continue to be this kind of player or you don't. And if you don't, the $18 million guaranteed you're going to give him this year is money wasted (and enough to set him for life so the 'get lazy when he gets paid' thing has triggered at that point, no?)
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O.city 02:31 PM 11-12-2018
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Gotta get it done in-season.

If he sees FA, he's a tag or he's gone.

Here's the thing with the tag - it's just a bad decision generally here, IMO. Either you trust the guy or you don't.

To the "make him prove it" crowd - If you don't trust him to play well next year, don't spend $18 million keeping him here for another year because that's money that can go into keeping Jones and/or Fuller. That's gonna be his tag cost and if you don't think he can go out there and be a premier pass rusher again, you simply don't do that.

And if you DO trust him and think he'll be worth that $18 million and then he plays to that level, you find yourself in a situation where he's gonna cost $22.5 under the cap to keep the following year. Now you're $40 million into him over 2 seasons.

Meanwhile, I think you can keep him at $45 million over the first three.

I've waffled on this one but ultimately I think I trust him. I think I'd go ahead and approach him with 4 yr deal for maybe $65 million and $45 million in the first 3. And if I can't make that work out, then I'd tag/trade him as Crow suggested.

Kicking the can doesn't make sense with him, IMO. Either you think he'll continue to be this kind of player or you don't. And if you don't, the $18 million guaranteed you're going to give him this year is money wasted (and enough to set him for life so the 'get lazy when he gets paid' thing has triggered at that point, no?)
I'd probably sign him, but I don't really fault guys that say don't or that don't want to.

But man, when the dude is healthy, he's as good of a pass rusher as there is. He's just a terror.

Plus with the offense the Chiefs have, they're gonna be in situations where other teams are gonna drop back and throw it 30 plus times a lot. EH, I dunno, tough situatin
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The Pest 06:03 PM 11-12-2018
I’d offer Ford a contract that’s structured like Watkins. Yeah it’s expensive but it’s really only for 3-4 years.
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