Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by petegz28:
That goes both ways. The more people who have it that aren't requiring any kind of treatment reduces the overall percentage of those that do.
In other words the more people who have it that aren't sick or going to the hospital is maybe not such a bad thing.
so if we are in the millions with 2,200 deaths. How many 10's of millions have to get it before we reach the 200,000 death toll?
The more that don’t have symptoms or need treatment is great in that it will get us to immunity faster
It’s bad in that if you don’t know you have it and can spread it to those that won’t be able to fight it off [Reply]
Originally Posted by notorious:
You probably have that person on ignore.
No I don't I was just actually ignoring their math as stupid and ludicrous. I thought that there might be some actual link to information like that. [Reply]
Originally Posted by notorious:
So now a million are going to be dead in 3 weeks.
Sorry, I don't believe it.
No, Fauci just said possibly 100K-200K dead in the USA. When its all over. He didn't want to lock that in because modeling changes. But, he threw a lot of skepticism on that reported 1 million dead report.
He is acknowledged by the world and his colleagues as the best, most knowledgeable infectious disease doctor. I put a lot more stock in what he says over someone else. [Reply]
Originally Posted by petegz28:
I tend to lean towards this myself. People are playing with the numbers to suit an outcome. Not saying Fauci is per say.
It's fear porn.
You aren't going to get to screw Jennifer Lawrence, but it's fun to "pretend" for a lot of people. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BigRedChief:
No, Fauci just said possibly 100K-200K dead in the USA.
He is acknowledged by the world and his colleagues as the best, most knowledgeable infectious disease doctor. I put a lot more stock in what he says over someone else.
One of our favorite DC posters oozed into here and posted some weird gorilla math. [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
The more that don’t have symptoms or need treatment is great in that it will get us to immunity faster
It’s bad in that if you don’t know you have it and can spread it to those that won’t be able to fight it off
I agree with this but it's just a fact of life. We deal with that shit every day. We can't lock up everyone out of fear someone might get sick somewhere. Right now, yes. Overall, no.
People, especially the little critters we call kids, carry shit all the fucking time and infect each other. At some point we are going to have to move towards that but when is the question. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DC:
The first US death from the Coronavirus was four weeks ago today on February 29. It took 27 days to go from 1 death to 1,000 deaths in the US.
Now the US is over 2,000 deaths. That second 1,000 deaths took less than 3 days.
Exponential growth.
We didn't start social distancing until March 14th. That means we have 13-14 more days of exponential growth. This is going to EXPLODE. 500x2x2x2= 4000 dead. A day.
25 days from 1 to 1,000 also means 25 days from 1,000 to 1,000,000 (April 19th).
Originally Posted by BigRedChief:
No, Fauci just said possibly 100K-200K dead in the USA. When its all over.
He is acknowledged by the world and his colleagues as the best, most knowledgeable infectious disease doctor. I put a lot more stock in what he says over someone else.
Sorry, but based on current CFR, 100,000 deaths means ~8,000,000 cases total. I just can't see that. [Reply]
A lot of people dont seem to understand exponential growth. (Which is why people suck with things like loans since they also dont understand compound interest, a mutual friend of exponential growth)
Let's say you have a pond with a single lily pad. That lily pad will double every day. It takes 30 days for lily pads to completely cover the entire pond. On what day do the lily pads cover half the pond?
The answer is day 29.
That is what everyone has been warning us about with this virus. The exponential growth will overwhelm our capacity.
And why we are trying to flatten the curve to slow that growth down. [Reply]
