Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
But here's what's been interesting - at least to whatever extent you can trust these numbers.
It seems that critical case rates spiked significantly in Italy several days before the mortality rates did. Meanwhile the US critical case rates appears to have held pretty steady.
And man, it's possible I'm standing at a crossing watching down the traintracks as a bus is approaching from my left that I'll simply never see coming. But I've taken the 'overrun our health systems' calls at face value from the start because they're inherently sensible. And IF that's the case, if that's truly the key distinction between benign outcomes and mortality spikes, then that's the key metric to track. May turn out that there's a universal constant and infections will yield the same number of critical cases in all nations - in which case that bus will drill me. But for right now, that's the area I've focused my attention on.
And unfortunately I'm simply consuming too much of this shit to keep track of it at this point, but from what I have seen, our critical care rates have remained awfully reasonable and significantly better than others - at least to this point.
Because every day has been the longest week of my life over the last 8-10 days, everything could be different by Wednesday. But so far there are still some signs out there to be encouraged by.
Again - this will obviously get worse before it gets better. And yes, the numbers will go up (including, eventually, the daily death toll) - but so long as our medical system isn't overrun, we'll come out of this just fine. So in light of that its critical to watch the revs, not just the speedometer.
You should stick around and post more. I like your optimism [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
But here's what's been interesting - at least to whatever extent you can trust these numbers.
It seems that critical case rates spiked significantly in Italy several days before the mortality rates did. Meanwhile the US critical case rates appears to have held pretty steady.
And man, it's possible I'm standing at a crossing watching down the traintracks as a bus is approaching from my left that I'll simply never see coming. But I've taken the 'overrun our health systems' calls at face value from the start because they're inherently sensible. And IF that's the case, if that's truly the key distinction between benign outcomes and mortality spikes, then that's the key metric to track. May turn out that there's a universal constant and infections will yield the same number of critical cases in all nations - in which case that bus will drill me. But for right now, that's the area I've focused my attention on.
And unfortunately I'm simply consuming too much of this shit to keep track of it at this point, but from what I have seen, our critical care rates have remained awfully reasonable and significantly better than others - at least to this point.
Because every day has been the longest week of my life over the last 8-10 days, everything could be different by Wednesday. But so far there are still some signs out there to be encouraged by.
Again - this will obviously get worse before it gets better. And yes, the numbers will go up (including, eventually, the daily death toll) - but so long as our medical system isn't overrun, we'll come out of this just fine. So in light of that its critical to watch the revs, not just the speedometer.
The critical rate in the US right and has been <1%. Now that is separate from the mortality rate as it only includes active cases, obviously. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
No reason we shouldn't be able to, its mostly common sense stuff.
Please tell me how to common sense providing enough testing together and also prevent people who are quarantined from spreading it to their families. How does common sense put together the stadium-level housing needed to truly quarantine infected people. Let's just common sense the drive-thru testing centers needed. I mean, common sense guys that's all you need to prevent the people with no symptoms from spreading this.
The French don’t recognize personal space at all, so it’s not surprising that they would spread it quicker. It doesn’t help matters when everyone over there smokes and rarely wash their hands after using the bathroom. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Kiimosabi:
Please tell me how to common sense providing enough testing together and also prevent people who are quarantined from spreading it to their families. How does common sense put together the stadium-level housing needed to truly quarantine infected people. Let's just common sense the drive-thru testing centers needed. I mean, common sense guys that's all you need to prevent the people with no symptoms from spreading this.
Common sense, lmao
Hes the same dumb fuck who said this was just another flu.
Seriously the guy is a dipshit take the advice of the surgeon general not some wannabe on CP. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Kiimosabi:
Please tell me how to common sense providing enough testing together and also prevent people who are quarantined from spreading it to their families. How does common sense put together the stadium-level housing needed to truly quarantine infected people. Let's just common sense the drive-thru testing centers needed. I mean, common sense guys that's all you need to prevent the people with no symptoms from spreading this.
Common sense, lmao
You are aware that the social distancing is the most important aspect of this not testing right?
You keep crying for testing but you cant test your way out of it. No idea why people think that. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Spott:
The French don’t recognize personal space at all, so it’s not surprising that they would spread it quicker. It doesn’t help matters when everyone over there smokes and rarely wash their hands after using the bathroom.
Did you see the pictures of Westport this weekend? [Reply]
The number of deaths is going up double digits today. 15 so far. We are still at a 1.8% mortality rate in this country compared to 2.5% last week but today is not a good day. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
You are aware that the social distancing is the most important aspect of this not testing right?
You keep crying for testing but you cant test your way out of it. No idea why people think that.
Because you have no idea where the virus actually is. You're just being hopeful not actually coming up with a solution. Social distancing only slows and flattens the graph.
When people start coming down with this in huge numbers everything is going to change, we're still in the infancy. Italy's numbers are jumping up at a huge rate despite social distancing.
The only countries that are actually achieving anything are ones utilizing widespread testing like China and South Korea. [Reply]
Since it is taking longer for obvious reasons before people are listed as "recovered" there is going to be a period of time where the number of deaths is higher than the number of recoveries. That being said as the days pass I think we will see the recovery numbers start to spike. [Reply]