Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
I think most vaccines are partially effective to some degree. Like you can still get measles even if you were vaccinated - but it's not as severe as if you didn't have the vaccination.
Also there are kids with massively compromised immune systems who can't take any vaccine. [Reply]
Another 1,400 deaths in the US today. We were already over 1,000 deaths for the 7 day rolling average. I can't remember who posted that we were on track to go over 2,000 deaths a day again but they may be right. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Chitownchiefsfan:
Another 1,400 deaths in the US today. We were already over 1,000 deaths for the 7 day rolling average. I can't remember who posted that we were on track to go over 2,000 deaths a day again but they may be right.
This a very rough analysis I did a couple weeks ago to project deaths per day by state (and total for USA). The 7DMA columns are the projected 7-day moving average of deaths per day on the date shown. So far it doesn't seem far off.
I got CFR by looking at current deaths then dividing by cases from a month before - to account for the lag between cases and deaths. 3 states at the time had 20% positivity or worse - TX/AZ/FL, and they all came in around 5% CFR using this method.
So I pegged 5% CFR to 20% positivity rate and made it proportional. IE - 10% positivity rate gets 2.5% CFR. Not super scientific obviously. But nothing really is that accurate right now.
The last column is where I set a floor of 2% CFR just to see if it would make a difference for states with very low positivity rates. It added 90 extra deaths/day. So not a huge difference. [Reply]
Originally Posted by suzzer99:
That's good to hear. What kind of policies do they have in place for covid?
What worries me is stuff like the summer camp thing I posted, and just knowing that kids in general are giant germ factories who slobber all over each other all day. It seems like if schools aren't going to be big problems - it's really going to take some re-engineering of the typical school day and/or something magical about covid that keeps kids from spreading it like they do other viruses.
There's been a study posted that little kids are half as susceptible to catching covid as adults - which is great, but half is still a lot. Teenagers seem to be pretty much the same as adults as far as catching and spreading it. And they're mostly asymptomatic - which is even worse for spread since the don't know they have it.
Look at sports locker rooms - kinda like schools they've long been known as super-spreader places. Traditionally, when something gets into a locker room, everyone gets it. MLB seems to think it will be different this time for some reason. But it's looking like no locker rooms are still super-spreaders once it gets in there. They should just lock up the locker rooms imo, and have the players sit in the stands instead of the dugout. Business as usual w/o a bubble doesn't seem like it's going to work.
When I was a kid in KC public schools we'd have half the day outside sometimes when it was nice. It really seems like they should think about moving outside whenever possible, until the weather turns.
It was relatively stringent. Same teahcers in the same class all day, kids only go in the xlass or outside, all teachers and staff wear face shields, outsiders not allowed in the building, temperature scans every morning. They had one positive case that did not result in any spread.
He'll be starting kindergarten in a couple of weeks with roughly the same procedure and their plan is to do things outside as much as possible. They also installed some fancy new filtering HVAC thing (I'm not sure of the details on that) [Reply]
Originally Posted by suzzer99:
Sure, but don't be surprised when they won't let unvaccinated kids into school, and a lot of countries won't let you in w/o vaccination papers.
I predict a lot of people throwing fits about that first one.
Hope this isn't posted already. Interesting that children seem to have less symptoms but now are showing they could spread it more easily than adults.
New Evidence Suggests Young Children Spread Covid-19 More Efficiently Than Adults
Originally Posted by :
Two new studies, though from different parts of the world, have arrived at the same conclusion: that young children not only transmit SARS-CoV-2 efficiently, but may be major drivers of the pandemic as well.
The first, which was published in The Lancet yesterday, reports findings from a pediatric hospital in Chicago, Illinois. The second, a preprint manuscript awaiting peer review, was conducted in the mountainous province of Trento, Italy.
The Chicago study examines the concentration of the SARS-CoV-2 in the nasopharynx, or the upper region of the throat that connects to the nasal passages, of children and adults. According to the results, children 5 years and younger who develop mild to moderate Covid-19 symptoms have 10 to 100 times as much SARS-CoV-2 in the nasopharynx as older children and adults.
Whenever these young children cough, sneeze, or shout, they expel virus-laden droplets from the nasopharynx into the air. If they have as much as one hundred times the amount of virus in their throat and nasal passages as adults, it only makes sense that they would spread the virus more efficiently. The study also shows that children from the ages of 5 to 17, also with mild to moderate Covid-19 symptoms, have the same amount of virus in the nasopharynx as adults age 18 and above.
The authors conclude it is likely that young children, while not as prone to suffering from Covid-19 infection, still drive its spread—just as they do with several other respiratory diseases.
The second manuscript reports the results of an extensive contact tracing study conducted in Trento, an autonomous region in Northern Italy. Despite a total lockdown that began in March with the closure of schools, universities, and all businesses except grocery stores, pharmacies, and newsstands, for more than a month the number of cases rose exponentially.
The researchers found that although young children had a somewhat lower risk of infection than adults and were less likely to become ill, children age 14 and younger transmit the virus more efficiently to other children and adults than adults themselves. Their risk of transmitting Covid-19 was 22.4 percent—more than twice that of adults aged 30 to 49, whose rate of contagiousness was about 11 percent. “Although childhood contacts were less likely to become cases,” they wrote, “children were more likely to infect household members.”
The Trento study also found that its youngest participants were the most efficient transmitters of the disease, citing respiratory syncytial virus as an example of another infectious disease for which this has been the case. The younger the child, they noted, the higher the concentration of SARS-CoV-2 in their nasal passages—an observation consistent with the Chicago study.
Both studies spell serious implications for countries contemplating whether or not to reopen schools in the face of lingering and out-of-control outbreaks, the United States included. Even if children are required to keep their hands to themselves, refrain from sharing toys and supplies, and wear masks at all times, we can’t realistically expect them to follow such rules without fail. So long as misbehavior is a possibility, so too is the rampant spread of infection.
If children from ages 5 to 17 are as or possibly even more contagious than adults, then opening schools in areas where daily rates of infection remain moderate to high is extremely risky and unwise. The measures we deploy to contain the spread of Covid-19 in our schools and our communities must take the entire population into account—children age 18 and below included.
Originally Posted by lewdog:
Hope this isn't posted already. Interesting that children seem to have less symptoms but now are showing they could spread it more easily than adults.
New Evidence Suggests Young Children Spread Covid-19 More Efficiently Than Adults
They plan to go back to school full time here in September with HS having to wear masks between classes and such I can’t see it happening if this is the cases . [Reply]
This guy wants people to wear masks for flu season now.
Andy Slavitt @ House with garden
@ASlavitt
·
10h
What to expect:
-1st wave continues to roll through the country
-Areas where schools & bars are open will be new hot spots
-Weather events will be a huge risk
-A bad flu season can be avoided with masks. Southern Hemi was mild.
-Baseball & football & NCAA will be a disaster 39/ [Reply]
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
This guy wants people to wear masks for flu season now.
Andy Slavitt @ House with garden
@ASlavitt
·
10h
What to expect:
-1st wave continues to roll through the country
-Areas where schools & bars are open will be new hot spots
-Weather events will be a huge risk
-A bad flu season can be avoided with masks. Southern Hemi was mild.
-Baseball & football & NCAA will be a disaster 39/
We should probably still be wearing for covid at that time but flu shots would be be more helpful in avoiding bad flu season than masks in normal times , masks and social distancing would still technically help still . [Reply]
Originally Posted by suzzer99:
You may need to update your talking points. At a national level your buddies have moved back to crowing about cases, since those are cresting while deaths are still rising.
Originally Posted by lewdog:
Hope this isn't posted already. Interesting that children seem to have less symptoms but now are showing they could spread it more easily than adults.
New Evidence Suggests Young Children Spread Covid-19 More Efficiently Than Adults
But the timing seems weird on the infections or maybe I just misread it, but it doesn’t (to me atleast) clarify if the infections at the event were necessarily caused by the event
In the initial study 100 patients from the University of Hospital Frankfurt Covid Registry – all relatively healthy adults in their 40s and 50s – 1/3 of the patients required hospitalisation during their bout with the virus. The others recovered at home.
“Researchers examined cardiac magnetic resonance imaging taken nearly two and a half months after they were diagnosed and compared them with images from people who never had Covid-19. The study found heart abnormalities in 78 patients, with 60 of those patients showing signs of inflammation in the heart muscle from the virus.” [Reply]
Originally Posted by Chiefnj2:
This is very concerning:
In the initial study 100 patients from the University of Hospital Frankfurt Covid Registry – all relatively healthy adults in their 40s and 50s – 1/3 of the patients required hospitalisation during their bout with the virus. The others recovered at home.
“Researchers examined cardiac magnetic resonance imaging taken nearly two and a half months after they were diagnosed and compared them with images from people who never had Covid-19. The study found heart abnormalities in 78 patients, with 60 of those patients showing signs of inflammation in the heart muscle from the virus.”
1) It's unclear how one gets on the "University of Hospital Frankfurt Covid Registry". Presumably it means you must be sick enough to show up at the hospital? Although the study authors do say they had a few asymptomatic cases. But they also say the pool is not representative of asymptomatic cases. So it must not have been very many.
2) There seems to be a lot of question as to how severe the heart abnormalities they discuss really are. One of their metrics was elevated troponin levels. Apparently these are fairly common and marathon runners even experience them.
Originally Posted by Monticore:
They plan to go back to school full time here in September with HS having to wear masks between classes and such I can’t see it happening if this is the cases .
Between classes? So they can take them off during class? That's a fool proof plan. I see nothing wrong with that. [Reply]
Originally Posted by jd1020:
Between classes? So they can take them off during class? That's a fool proof plan. I see nothing wrong with that.
Tell me about it, social distancing in the same room isn’t going to cut it , even if they reduce class sizes , or time in class , our advantage is not having many cases locally , 39 total 38 resolved and no new cases in 3 weeks but that could change quickly. [Reply]
