More trade news: The #Chiefs are deep in talks with the #49ers on a trade for star pass-rusher Dee Ford, sources say. Things have escalated and this could get done by the end of the night. Ford needs to work out a new contract with SF, which is a big piece of this.
Originally Posted by MahiMike:
Will the NFL exist next year? I'm ok with this. Why are people so short-sighted?
It's not short-sighted. It's just the way things are valued.
Let's first talk about it from a strict finance perspective. If I offered you $1 today versus $1 in a year, you'd take the $1 today because you could invest it and risklessly earn a positive rate of return and have $1.02 in a year. I.e., the interest earned (benefit) is greater than what it costs to hold the $1.
Similarly, if someone said the team can have a 2nd round pick today or a 2nd round pick in a year, the Chiefs would much rather have the 2nd round pick this year as we could draft a player whom we could extract some immediate value from (important given that we're on the verge of a SB) and also start the development process earlier...all at a marginal cost. Other teams - perhaps those who aren't going to be competitive this season - might place less value on having the immediate contributor. And, of course, in this situation, the 49ers have the 4th best draft slot. By giving them Ford, we're (likely!) helping them to get better all else equal which implies that they might have a lesser draft slot next year. If anything, it introduces uncertainty whereas this year we know exactly where we'd be drafting.
Safe to say it would be pretty wonderful to have picks 29 and 36 in this year's draft. 29 this year + 34-52 next year is a bit less interesting. [Reply]
2 Schwartz
3. Jones
4. Hill
5. Ford
6. Kelce
7. Houston
Interesting.
I can't put Ford above Kelce or Houston, if I were making a list. Probably not above Hunt (while he was here) either. I believe LDT is better than Ford.
But he's probably at the edge of top 10, so top 20% of the team. [Reply]
Originally Posted by cdcox:
I get that the braintrust is trying to balance talent on the field vs future financial liability. In these categories I think Badger vs Houston is likely a wash. Maybe a slightly better financial situation for a slightly worse talent situation. Letting go of Ford is great on the balance sheet but is the loss of our biggest difference maker on defense — it is unrealistic to think we will come close to replacing his productivity, even accounting for his average play against the run. Nelson was marginal, but will cost resources to replace — the names floated, other than Patrick Peterson, are essentially breaking even in the talent department at corner. Right now — even accounting for the fact this isn’t the final product — it seems quite likely that the talent on defense will be worse than last year.
Which brings up the Spags tax. Switching from the 3-4 to the 4-3 seems to have caused us to become worse just from the fact that a couple of our star players no longer fit the scheme. Perhaps getting a DC who was comfortable with the 3-4 deserved consideration given the significant talent in the front 5. We were a few pieces away from a mediocre defense. We are now a few pices and a star player away.
Yet several people are dancing in the streets as if we just canned Pioli.
Given the state of the FA market at present, about the only way I can see a 'win' here is if the plan is, as you have stated, getting the books cleaned up for a long-term foundation.
Don't go burning that space on some mediocre pass-rusher to 'replace' arguably the most productive pass-rusher in the league last season. Ziggy !@#$ing Ansah at $8-10 million/season doesn't make a damn bit of sense there.
Take that money and use it on extensions for Hill, Jones and Fuller. If you're lucky maybe the Pats at the back of the 2nd would take next season's 49ers second for their 2019 2nd (figuring that their 2nd this year is effectively a 3rd and the 49ers pick is likely to be in the middle of the 2nd). It's unlikely, but possible given BB's proclivities.
But if their plan is presently to balance the books for the future, they'd still better be !@#$ing cutting Eric Berry. Because if they don't, then what they've done is trade Ford for a future 2nd round pick and the ability to keep a broke-dick on the roster. That's just compounding a bad decision, IMO. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Chief_N_Bama:
OR we could have retained his services for one more year and NOT signed the Mathieu (EDGE>>>>>SS, especially for essentially the same money), then let him walk next year, and receive essentially the same pick next year as a compensatory pick.
AND MATHIEU IS A ONE DIMENSIONAL SAFETY!!!!!
So a pick at the end of the third round is the same as a second round pick? Interesting concept. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Given the state of the FA market at present, about the only way I can see a 'win' here is if the plan is, as you have stated, getting the books cleaned up for a long-term foundation.
Don't go burning that space on some mediocre pass-rusher to 'replace' arguably the most productive pass-rusher in the league last season. Ziggy !@#$ing Ansah at $8-10 million/season doesn't make a damn bit of sense there.
Take that money and use it on extensions for Hill, Jones and Fuller. If you're lucky maybe the Pats at the back of the 2nd would take next season's 49ers second for their 2019 2nd (figuring that their 2nd this year is effectively a 3rd and the 49ers pick is likely to be in the middle of the 2nd). It's unlikely, but possible given BB's proclivities.
But if their plan is presently to balance the books for the future, they'd still better be !@#$ing cutting Eric Berry. Because if they don't, then what they've done is trade Ford for a future 2nd round pick and the ability to keep a broke-dick on the roster. That's just compounding a bad decision, IMO.
That's fine, balancing the books.
But they're talking like this is a big super bowl push year. IF that's the case, relying on draft picks at the back end of each round seems pretty optimistic. [Reply]
It’s not fuzzy math to say a pick in the mid-second in 2020 (~45-50) is much more value than a pick in the 97-100 range in 2021.
Picks in the next year translate “down” a round in value compared to picks in the current year.
So a second in 2020 = a third in 2019. When you’re talking a compensatory third in 2021, you’re really talking about a fourth round pick in 2021, because the third round is over.
Which equates to a 5th in 2020.
Yes, but you are comparing the pick to this years draft, when you should be comparing it to next years, since we wouldn't lose Ford until next year.
Mathieu isn’t “just” a SS. He can be used in as a slot CB and in deep coverage. He’s versatile and can be used unpredictably, which adds a different flavor to things.
No, he is just a SS. Pass coverage is his weakness. Always has been. He's great roaming the field and adlibing but he aint gonna lock down any slot receiver or TE in this league. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Sully:
Interesting.
I can't put Ford above Kelce or Houston, if I were making a list. Probably not above Hunt (while he was here) either. I believe LDT is better than Ford.
But he's probably at the edge of top 10, so top 20% of the team.
Like I said... I don't put much value in the opinions of those on this board... lol... [Reply]
Originally Posted by Chief_N_Bama:
It’s not fuzzy math to say a pick in the mid-second in 2020 (~45-50) is much more value than a pick in the 97-100 range in 2021.
Picks in the next year translate “down” a round in value compared to picks in the current year.
So a second in 2020 = a third in 2019. When you’re talking a compensatory third in 2021, you’re really talking about a fourth round pick in 2021, because the third round is over.
Which equates to a 5th in 2020.
Yes, but you are comparing the pick to this years draft, when you should be comparing it to next years, since we wouldn't lose Ford until next year.
Mathieu isn’t “just” a SS. He can be used in as a slot CB and in deep coverage. He’s versatile and can be used unpredictably, which adds a different flavor to things.
No, he is just a SS. Pass coverage is his weakness. Always has been. He's great roaming the field and adlibing but he aint gonna lock down any slot receiver or TE in this league.
Was it Black Bob or Mav who 1st started the bolded responses to quotes [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
So in a year the Chiefs feel they are really super bowl contenders, you guys want them to rely on rookie pass rushers?
A rookie pass rusher that's not going to be drafted in the top 5 where the guys drafted contribute immediately, but a guy taken at 29?
That's my frustration - the lack of value on the 'now' from folks celebrating this deal.
All anyone wants to talk about is that we turned a potential 2021 comp pick into a 2020 2nd rounder. Okay...but we lost our best pass-rusher and probably the best pure pass rusher in the league last season.
This 'he's a speed rusher' stuff is ridiculous. Ford came into the league as a speed rusher but he was absolutely capable of beating guys in several ways as he developed. He started using that lever/stiff-arm that Houston was so good with last season. He developed a true rip move that would allow him to get inside guys. Shit, he demonstrated a bull rush on several occasions. His footwork was great and his hand skills were improved to the point of very good, if not elite.
Ford was a straight up, bad-ass pass-rusher last season. He wasn't Bruce Irvin needing to line up wide and run fast around lead-footed tackles to succeed. He was able to convert speed to power and use the threat of speed to get inside guys. He was a genuinely dynamic, elite pass-rusher.
That has a TON of value, if only for a single season. And no, he wasn't a disaster against the run either. He was below average if you ran straight at him but he was outstanding as a pursuit defender which made running away from him a trick. He had a clear weakness - he wasn't outstanding at setting the edges on runs to his side, but now you're in a 4-3 where that weakness could be obviated somewhat by having a Will right behind him to clean up or fill.
But it's done. And our GM has demonstrated a pattern of extremely questionable FA acquisitions. And the market is pretty much barren at this point.
So do I want to trust our pass-rush to Chris Jones in a new role and some late-round rookie? No - but it's the best of bad options now that we've dealt our best pass-rusher for a middling return. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Chief_N_Bama:
]
No, he is just a SS. Pass coverage is his weakness. Always has been. He's great roaming the field and adlibing but he aint gonna lock down any slot receiver or TE in this league.
Just shut up already dude. Mathieu was the best ‘slot cover corner’ in football just a few years ago. This even according to PFF.
Originally Posted by Chief_N_Bama:
$16MM for an elite pass rusher? Sounds like a bargain, especially when he just got paid $2-3MM more than that from SF...
On the flip side we could tie that money up in an undersized safety who is a liability in pass coverage... :-)... makes perfect sense...
So a guy with 30.5 sacks over 5 seasons (13 of which came last year in his contract year) is suddenly elite? You make it seem like we traded DT or LT in their primes here. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
That's my frustration - the lack of value on the 'now' from folks celebrating this deal.
All anyone wants to talk about is that we turned a potential 2021 comp pick into a 2020 2nd rounder. Okay...but we lost our best pass-rusher and probably the best pure pass rusher in the league last season.
This 'he's a speed rusher' stuff is ridiculous. Ford came into the league as a speed rusher but he was absolutely capable of beating guys in several ways. He developed that lever/stiff-arm that Houston was so good with last season. He developed a true rip move that would allow him to get inside guys. Shit, he demonstrated a bull rush on several occasions.
Ford was a straight up, bad-ass pass-rusher last season. He wasn't Bruce Irvin needing to line up wide and run fast around lead-footed tackles to succeed. He was able to convert speed to power and use the threat of speed to get inside guys. He was a genuinely dynamic, elite pass-rusher.
That has a TON of value, if only for a single season. And no, he wasn't a disaster against the run either. He was below average if you ran straight at him but he was outstanding as a pursuit defender which made running away from him a trick. He had a clear weakness - he wasn't outstanding at setting the edges on runs to his side, but now you're in a 4-3 where that weakness could be obviated somewhat by having a Will right behind him to clean up or fill.
But it's done. And our GM has demonstrated a pattern of extremely questionable FA acquisitions. And the market is pretty much barren at this point.
So do I want to trust our pass-rush to Chris Jones in a new role and some late-round rookie? No - but it's the best of bad options now that we've dealt our best pass-rusher for a middling return.
Pretty much.
It just doesn't make a whole lot of sense if they're trying to push it all in. Quite frankly, this should have all been done last year if that was the plan.
I've got to believe there is another big move or two coming. Flipping some picks for and extending current players elsewhere.
If they could turn Dee Ford into say, Clowney on a long term deal, ok. That makes sense.
The alternative just doesn't and reeks of a year late a dollar short. [Reply]
