Doesn't have to happen in 2021 to take a QB in 2021.

But again, they won't have to cut him - they can easily get him moved if they want to and the dead money drops significantly if they do because most his dead money is in guaranteed salary and not signing bonus.

Goff it where that really applies. He'll carry a $32 million cap hit in 2022 and the Rams will take a $31 million cap hit if they cut him. $22 million if it's post June 1. So if they somehow get to 1.1, they take Lawrence and he's probably starting by mid-season but then they cut Goff w/ a 6/1 designation the following year and their cap is in about the same shape as it would've been with him, but is in far better shape going forward and they have a premium QB talent on their roster to boot.

Best case scenario is he actually plays well in 2021 and they can get him traded instead of released, thus moving his $15 million roster bonus with him and saving them quite a bit. Worst case is they're no worse off in 2022 from a cap standpoint, far better thereafter and with a more talented passer for their troubles.

Very very few teams are truly in a situation where they'd pass on the most talented quarterback in the draft if he was available to them. Especially in the 2021 draft.
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Say some team offers the Chiefs a first for Chris Jones and they take it, then said team completely implodes and the Chiefs get 1.1.

Obviously the Chiefs aren't going to keep Trevor Lawrence, but how would you auction him off?
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I guess I'd call the Cowboys :-)

I mean ultimately you answered your own question, didn't you? Pretty easy "highest bidder" analysis at that point. And I'd weight it more towards highest picks in 2021 in return given the weirdness of year to year performance in the NFL.

That 'high 2nd rounder' we got from SF for Dee Ford sure turned to shit in a hurry, didn't it?

So if I'm accepting bids, it's pretty much gonna be "who's gonna give me the most in 2021 because every last one of you is giving me at least a 1st in 2022 anyway..."

The return might be as big as anything the NFL has ever seen.
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Completely off-topic but if the Rams and Chargers finish Bottom 5 in 2020, how stupid does the NFL look with two of the worst teams playing in an empty $6 BILLION dollar stadium?
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I'm not sure they'd look any less stupid if both teams finish 10-6 and the Chargers draw dick again.

I will never understand their hard-on for cramming 2 teams into LA.
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Potential TV money, I'm guessing.
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But there's really no way for that to not be a parasitic relationship, is there?

There's not gonna be anybody that becomes a football fan BECAUSE the Chargers are there. Oh sure, they might be Chargers fans instead of Rams fans, but if the Chargers weren't there and they were football fans, they'd become Rams fans.

I just don't see how putting the Chargers in LA helped with total eyeballs unless there's some marginal benefit from the fact that one of them will be on the road (likely in the noon slot) while the other will be at 3 and so you may have the entire LA football fan market watching from noon to 6 (just watching the hometown team even if they don't root for them) rather than merely from 3 to 6.

I guess it's as good an explanation as any...
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I'm just thinking about marketing/advertising dollars. I mean, we're not just talking about the private citizens watching from home, but the fact that every bar, sports bar, casual restaurant in SoCal will have the games on every Sunday/Monday/Thursday and that a lot of people go to such establishments to watch the game instead of staying home.

So even if only 30% or less of the customers on any given gameday are actual fans, all those eyes will see some of all those commercials. And that's big TV money. Advertisers will get charged more for game commercials, especially in SoCal because the potential audience is so much larger, even commercials before the game will be slightly more, because there's a higher chance of people actually watching as they get ready for the game.

So it's not just about actual fans of either team, but the entire captive audiences for those time slots. Which probably is at least 3 times larger than the fanbases.
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I've been in LA for almost 28 years and before I was able to put a Direct TV dish in my home, I was out every single weekend at what few sports bars existed in LA during that time.

95% of the customers were East Coast guys, so the Giants, Jets and Eagles dominated the TV's. I was always relegated to the smallest TV in the bar, which was generally in a corner with about 3 or 4 other Chiefs fans.

I've been out a few times since the Rams returned to LA and literally no one in these sports bars were watching the Rams. There's very little interest, even after their Super Bowl run in 2018.

As for the Chargers, there is zero interest in the team and now that Rivers, Gates and Gordon are gone, they don't even have a single marquee player for them to hang their hat on in terms of marketing.

Moving one team, let alone two teams, to SoCal was a huge miscalculation on the part of the NFL.
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No way I'm rolling with Average Ass Andy if I'm Jerry Jones. He squandered a high end receiving group with elite mode AJ Green, Sanu and Marvin Jones and a once upon a time healthy Eifert. Solid ass line too.

What did they get from all that? A bunch of one and dones.

Dak isn't great, but hell I'd make them pay too because what the fuck else are they gonna do? Just reaching into the draft and plucking a new starter isn't a breeze like some people are making it out to be.

Alex Smith wasn't on the cusp of peaking when the Chiefs extended him and had already had a big time contract.
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Yeah but you're omitting the common denominator: Marvin Lewis.

Lewis couldn't get shit out of Carson Palmer and Chad Johnson all those years, just like he couldn't get shit out of Dalton, Green, Mixon etc.

Bruce Arians was able to get enough of out an old and beat up Carson Palmer to lead them to the NFC Championship game and one win from the Super Bowl, yet Lewis couldn't win a freaking playoff game in more than 8 years with Palmer at the helm.

Carson Palmer is yet another example of a player with elite abilities being relegated to the bottom tier because he was drafted by a shitty and dysfunctional franchise.
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He Dak out played Mahomes, according to Skip Bayless, so he deserves more money than Mahomes. :-)


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It may have already been mentioned but in texas there is no state income tax.If Dak were to sign with a California team he'd be paying 12.3% so that 175 mill would have to be 196 mil just to equal out.
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Hey man. Good to see you posting!

That’s a really fun and intriguing hypothetical.

I mean, your asking price and return price would be stupid, so stupid it might shift the NFL draft pick value chart.

I’d ask for a team’s next 3 first round picks - and then some.

2021 1st and 3rd
2022 1st and 2nd
2023 1st and 3rd

It’s Herschel Walker trade territory. But man, the flexibility it would give KC...

Fun thing to think about that will never happen...
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Either Dak will come out of this as one smart ballsy guy who wins at the end or so fucked up he will look like Dak on Crack.

I'm eager to see which turn it takes......
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