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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
TLO 11:56 AM 09-10-2020
Substantial underestimation of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the United States

Here, we use a semi-Bayesian probabilistic bias analysis to account for incomplete testing and imperfect diagnostic accuracy. We estimate 6,454,951 cumulative infections compared to 721,245 confirmed cases (1.9% vs. 0.2% of the population) in the United States as of April 18, 2020. Accounting for uncertainty, the number of infections during this period was 3 to 20 times higher than the number of confirmed cases. 86% (simulation interval: 64–99%) of this difference is due to incomplete testing, while 14% (0.3–36%) is due to imperfect test accuracy. The approach can readily be applied in future studies in other locations or at finer spatial scale to correct for biased testing and imperfect diagnostic accuracy to provide a more realistic assessment of COVID-19 burden.

Link to study here

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18272-4
[Reply]
sedated 11:58 AM 09-10-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
What is your thinking behind this?
BWillie has been banging the drum for how terrible Covid is going to get during cold and flu season since the whole thing started. Literally that's all he's said.
[Reply]
BigCatDaddy 11:59 AM 09-10-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
I don't disagree with that. Of course, we probably have ten times the number of confirmed cases. So, we know the numbers aren't set in stone.

What we do know is that when cases increase, so do deaths in a few weeks. Hence, my reaction to anyone saying that cases don't matter. They absolutely do matter. That's how it all starts.
I'm not saying cases don't matter. I'm saying comparing the number of cases without taking into the number of test being performed is silly.
[Reply]
Discuss Thrower 12:03 PM 09-10-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
Substantial underestimation of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the United States

Here, we use a semi-Bayesian probabilistic bias analysis to account for incomplete testing and imperfect diagnostic accuracy. We estimate 6,454,951 cumulative infections compared to 721,245 confirmed cases (1.9% vs. 0.2% of the population) in the United States as of April 18, 2020. Accounting for uncertainty, the number of infections during this period was 3 to 20 times higher than the number of confirmed cases. 86% (simulation interval: 64–99%) of this difference is due to incomplete testing, while 14% (0.3–36%) is due to imperfect test accuracy. The approach can readily be applied in future studies in other locations or at finer spatial scale to correct for biased testing and imperfect diagnostic accuracy to provide a more realistic assessment of COVID-19 burden.

Link to study here

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18272-4
AGENDA POSTING
[Reply]
Demonpenz 12:44 PM 09-10-2020
Our elementary school closed
[Reply]
TLO 01:49 PM 09-10-2020
Missouri's 7 day % positivity percentage appears to be dropping. New cases are down. Hospitalizations are stable.

We'll see if it holds.
[Reply]
Discuss Thrower 01:59 PM 09-10-2020
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/declin...f-german-data/
[Reply]
sedated 02:23 PM 09-10-2020
Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower:
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/declin...f-german-data/
Severe cases of Covid (hospitalizations/deaths) do seem to have declined pretty significantly in the last couple of months. It doesn't seem like something that could be chalked up exclusively to just "younger people getting it", it spreads too easily for it to stay limited to a certain demographic across an entire country.

Anecdotal evidence, but I did hear about a friend's cousin (mid-20s) that died of Covid a week ago.
[Reply]
htismaqe 09:40 PM 09-10-2020
357 school districts in Iowa and only 1 isn't yet actually back to school. The Des Moines school district is now considering suing the state so that they can keep from having to go back to school.

This despite that the fact that the 2nd and 3rd largest districts in the area, Waukee and West Des Moines have had 25,000 students in class for almost 2 weeks and have a grand total of 35 cases.
[Reply]
petegz28 09:45 PM 09-10-2020
Originally Posted by htismaqe:
357 school districts in Iowa and only 1 isn't yet actually back to school. The Des Moines school district is now considering suing the state so that they can keep from having to go back to school.

This despite that the fact that the 2nd and 3rd largest districts in the area, Waukee and West Des Moines have had 25,000 students in class for almost 2 weeks and have a grand total of 35 cases.
What's their reasoning for not wanting to open?
[Reply]
htismaqe 09:52 PM 09-10-2020
Originally Posted by petegz28:
What's their reasoning for not wanting to open?
They want to do 100% online learning but haven't really said why, at least not outright. They've said things like "student safety isn't our only concern".
[Reply]
Donger 09:22 AM 09-11-2020
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...scenarios.html

CDC has updated their estimates. R0 best estimate remains 2.5 They've also broken out the IFR by age group.
[Reply]
TLO 10:17 AM 09-11-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...scenarios.html

CDC has updated their estimates. R0 best estimate remains 2.5 They've also broken out the IFR by age group.
IFR best estimate

0-19 years: 0.00003
20-49 years: 0.0002
50-69 years: 0.005
70+ years: 0.054
[Reply]
Donger 10:19 AM 09-11-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
IFR best estimate

0-19 years: 0.00003
20-49 years: 0.0002
50-69 years: 0.005
70+ years: 0.054
Yep. The previous data was .65% overall. No idea what they think it is now.
[Reply]
TLO 11:20 AM 09-11-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
Yep. The previous data was .65% overall. No idea what they think it is now.
Pardon my ignorance, but aren't these numbers quite a bit lower than previous numbers we've seen?

Or do you have to multiply the numbers listed above by 100 or something? I think you do.
[Reply]
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