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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
R Clark 05:28 PM 06-23-2020
Originally Posted by kgrund:
Yes which means he is likely good with data and numbers, which comprises the bulk of the article.
He’s damn sure smarter than me if he’s retard at 37
[Reply]
Pablo 05:28 PM 06-23-2020
Here's a thread about pete, his terrifying neighbor and a light if you want a nice chuckle:

https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/show...hbor%27s+light
[Reply]
DaFace 05:30 PM 06-23-2020
Originally Posted by kgrund:
Yes which means he is likely good with data and numbers, which comprises the bulk of the article.
Ah, well in that case you should agree that my opinions are superior given that I have both bachelor's and master's degrees in business (with an undergrad emphasis in finance). I also crunch data and numbers for a living.

(Hint: I have no expertise in epidemiology whatsoever. But then I don't claim to.)
[Reply]
Pablo 05:34 PM 06-23-2020
Originally Posted by DaFace:
Ah, well in that case you should agree that my opinions are superior given that I have both bachelor's and master's degrees in business (with an undergrad emphasis in finance). I also crunch data and numbers for a living.

(Hint: I have no expertise in epidemiology whatsoever. But then I don't claim to.)
Holy shit, link me to your COVID article already.
[Reply]
Bearcat 05:55 PM 06-23-2020
Originally Posted by R Clark:
He’s damn sure smarter than me if he’s retard at 37
I was retard at 37 as well, but you don't see me writing articles about Covid.
[Reply]
Why Not? 06:06 PM 06-23-2020
Originally Posted by Bearcat:
I was retard at 37 as well, but you don't see me writing articles about Covid.
Hahahha.
[Reply]
Eleazar 07:10 PM 06-23-2020
Originally Posted by KS Smitty:
So this happened last week:

"Riley County COVID-19 numbers continue to rise locally, with now 61 active cases, and 132 total cases in the county since the pandemic began. Those were the latest figures as of Monday afternoon. (Earlier in the day, it was mistakenly reported that active cases were at 25.)

“We had a huge jump in our cases over the last week. We added a total of 47 new cases just last week, we tested a total of 320 (individuals),” said Riley County Health Officer Julie Gibbs Monday on KMAN.

Gibbs says as of last week the county was at a 14 percent positive rate compared to a 2 percent rate three weeks ago. Of the 132 cases, Gibbs says 60 percent are males and 40 percent are females. Most of the new cases coming in are younger individuals between 18 and 24. A number of them have come from being at social gatherings at local bars and restaurants...."

https://1350kman.com/update-riley-co...ed-aggieville/

There is a viral video showing the 'ville packed this weekend.

Now this is happening:

"Riley County health department announced Local Health Order No. 13.

This new health order is in place due to the recent increase in positive cases, more hospitalizations, and heightened evidence of community spread. The issue will go into effect at 12:01 a.m. on Wednesday Jun 24 and will remain in effect for 14 days, or until amended, superseded, or rescinded.

According to a press release, Local Health Officer Julie Gibbs says the data for the community indicates the need for more restrictions. The community will need to take steps to protect public safety and prevent the healthcare system from being overwhelmed. She adds that if these measures are not successful, additional restrictions may be necessary.

The mass gathering size, which was increased to 100 people last week, will now be reduced to 50 people....

https://1350kman.com/riley-county-he...-health-order/

Taco Lucha, So Long Saloon and Varsity Donuts have temporarily closed.
This is one example of the type of things I have recently posted about. This is an outbreak and certainly needs attention, but probably not indicative of a massive wave of unmitigated community spread across Riley Co. (at least at this point) The 14% positivity rate is probably owed to contact testing and aggressive testing of people who were very likely to have been exposed by being in a high risk situation at these large social gatherings.

Among other things it shows that Aggieville is a much more effective super-spreader than a large outdoor protest.
[Reply]
TLO 07:11 PM 06-23-2020
Originally Posted by Eleazar:
This is one example of the type of things I have recently posted about. This is an outbreak and certainly needs attention, but probably not indicative of a massive wave of unmitigated community spread in Riley Co. The 14% positivity rate is probably owed to contact testing and aggressive testing of people who were very likely to have been exposed by being in a high risk situation at these large social gatherings.
What does Ethical Skeptic have to say today?
[Reply]
lewdog 07:13 PM 06-23-2020
42 deaths in AZ today.

Highest daily total yet and it will get much worse for this state......
[Reply]
Eleazar 07:14 PM 06-23-2020
Today's ES (trigger warning)

Grist Mill states. 21 day change in cumulative hospitalized rising much faster than 21 day change in hospital census.

1. Short stays for Covid 'hospitalization'
2. Detected at hospital rather than coming for Covid treatment

Notice the states.... NO info for TX pic.twitter.com/HPvZa1W9T1

— Ethical Skeptic ☀ (@EthicalSkeptic) June 23, 2020


Two states fell out, OK and OR. So, this is really a pandemic of 10 states now. We are almost at the end of the need to track the entire US. A pandemic of the south border.

Despite grist milling, hospitalization is only growing at 15% as compared to the 154% jump in cases. pic.twitter.com/a9GbOZzOsU

— Ethical Skeptic ☀ (@EthicalSkeptic) June 23, 2020


With AZ posting a 33.5% pct-positives today, we know that SitRep data is a load of horse shit from many states now. It is disheartening to be lied to so blatantly.

This chart ends at the end of month with a 4.0% pct-pos shop production benchmark (not real infection rate). pic.twitter.com/ZR0UW1hkmG

— Ethical Skeptic ☀ (@EthicalSkeptic) June 23, 2020


Our south border Hot Ten States, are most decidedly having an effect on hospital census and admissions.

Case ramp up began Jun 10
Hospital ramp up began Jun 15
Fatality ramp up began today (Jun 23)

Now we watch these final 10 states. pic.twitter.com/jVCPliswgX

— Ethical Skeptic ☀ (@EthicalSkeptic) June 23, 2020


Today's 775 fatalities appear to be in part legacy case backlog which was held off for posting today. But also was driven by a 62 fatality increase in the Ten Hot States as a group over last week's avg. pic.twitter.com/9ZDGx1zpgu

— Ethical Skeptic ☀ (@EthicalSkeptic) June 23, 2020


Day 8 in an overall increase in detected cases, as we mine into the (in reality) much larger reserve of undetected cases (94,000 new just today). We can report 90,000 new cases tomorrow if we just test cleverly enough.

But this would be irresponsible & just downright malicious. pic.twitter.com/YFlhiUANo7

— Ethical Skeptic ☀ (@EthicalSkeptic) June 23, 2020

[Reply]
TLO 07:22 PM 06-23-2020
Ok great. Now can you sum up what he/she is saying like I'm 10 years old?
[Reply]
Eleazar 07:23 PM 06-23-2020
Again, I don't necessarily agree with his conclusions or his judgement of nefarious motives for why some numbers don't make sense. ES believes that old data is being mined for positive cases and other underhanded or irresponsible things are being done that boost counts. I'm just watching his commentary over time.

But he does point out some interesting data points such as some states' hospitalized patients numbers moving in ways that are not in concert with their census changes, or jumps in cases that couldn't be explained by community spread alone.

Overall, it seems the deaths curve is basically following the CDC's 'excess deaths' measure, but trailing it.
[Reply]
Bearcat 07:25 PM 06-23-2020
Originally Posted by lewdog:
42 deaths in AZ today.

Highest daily total yet and it will get much worse for this state......
IT WAS THE GRIST MILLING!
[Reply]
Eleazar 07:28 PM 06-23-2020
Originally Posted by Bearcat:
IT WAS THE GRIST MILLING!
Dunno specifically what he means by that, but generally among those who would call themselves "team reality" on social media, there is a feeling that hospitals - in dire financial straits - are doing everything they can to find positives for financial reasons, including some that are reported in ways that they feel 'salt' the data to make it less useful.
[Reply]
petegz28 07:30 PM 06-23-2020
Originally Posted by lewdog:
42 deaths in AZ today.

Highest daily total yet and it will get much worse for this state......
My Dad canceled his trip to KC because you young fucks are running around spreading that shit everywhere and he is afraid he might bring it here or something. Ungrateful, millenial brats!!! :-)
[Reply]
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