Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by Eleazar:
Dunno specifically what he means by that, but generally among those who would call themselves "team reality" on social media, there is a feeling that hospitals - in dire financial straits - are doing everything they can to find positives for financial reasons, including some that are reported in ways that they feel 'salt' the data to make it less useful.
Hospitals would make more money if they could go back to normal, which won’t happen as long as there is exponential growth , so that makes no sense. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Eleazar:
Dunno specifically what he means by that, but generally among those who would call themselves "team reality" on social media, there is a feeling that hospitals - in dire financial straits - are doing everything they can to find positives for financial reasons, including some that are reported in ways that they feel 'salt' the data to make it less useful.
Yeah, I'm sure... take away elective surgeries and then tell hospitals they'll get reimbursed for Covid cases, the result is obvious.
He can lump together a bunch of stats and show low percentages, but I know for Arizona, the largest healthcare provider in Phoenix has opened 3 new ICU units due to the uptick in hospitalizations (not just future planning), and they're worried about capacity in Tuscon as well.
At least he's not completely dismissing what's happening in some states, by saying it's "a 10 state pandemic".... all of the number fudging aside one way or the other, when Banner publishes information on what's happening in Phoenix, I'll tend to believe them.
Of course, that doesn't necessarily shove Arizona (or myself) into "WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE" territory.... maybe we should start calling this kind of stuff "numbers porn" or "stat mongering". :-) [Reply]
Originally Posted by Monticore:
Hospitals would make more money if they could go back to normal, which won’t happen as long as there is exponential growth , so that makes no sense.
But that isn't going to happen while the pandemic is going on, and in the meantime more money can be 'found' by finding more cases, so it goes. [Reply]
Originally Posted by petegz28:
My Dad canceled his trip to KC because you young fucks are running around spreading that shit everywhere and he is afraid he might bring it here or something. Ungrateful, millenial brats!!! :-)
The state of Kansas also says you have to quarantine after travelling to Arizona, among other states.... I assume it's only "strongly recommended" though, since they don't even have their own major airport they can monitor for incoming travelers. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Monticore:
Hospitals would make more money if they could go back to normal, which won’t happen as long as there is exponential growth , so that makes no sense.
Hospitals are required to report cases... no idea if there's some kind of penalty for not doing so, but since they have/had no idea when elective surgeries are/were coming back, they might as well go the route of over-reporting and getting money instead of under-reporting and not getting money and possibly getting into deep shit. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Bearcat:
Yeah, I'm sure... take away elective surgeries and then tell hospitals they'll get reimbursed for Covid cases, the result is obvious.
He can lump together a bunch of stats and show low percentages, but I know for Arizona, the largest healthcare provider in Phoenix has opened 3 new ICU units due to the uptick in hospitalizations (not just future planning), and they're worried about capacity in Tuscon as well.
At least he's not completely dismissing what's happening in some states, by saying it's "a 10 state pandemic".... all of the number fudging aside one way or the other, when Banner publishes information on what's happening in Phoenix, I'll tend to believe them.
Of course, that doesn't necessarily shove Arizona (or myself) into "WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE" territory.... maybe we should start calling this kind of stuff "numbers porn" or "stat mongering". :-)
Obviously there's been a ramp up in these 10 states, I don't think anyone is disputing that (for others who might read this)
But, it's not altogether unusual for ICUs to be near capacity at a particular hospital. Especially now that surgeries have resumed in many places, there is greater demand for these beds, and hospitals don't build out capacity that they expect to sit empty most of the time.
Turning additional floor units into critical care units by equipping them for that is part of surge planning and something that most hospitals expected to deal with during the pandemic but did not. In these border states they seem to need them at the moment though.
What would be more worrisome would be if they were running out of total beds or vents in a whole city or state, but that seems unlikely since that never even happened in NYC.
It seems like if there isn't a second wave, there will probably be swells like this in some places as well as localized outbreaks until mass vaccination or it runs its course.
Still seems to be no good quality data on who the people hospitalized are and where they are getting it. Are these large multigenerational households? Are these cases that are crossing the border? What is tracing telling us...? [Reply]
Originally Posted by Eleazar:
But that isn't going to happen while the pandemic is going on, and in the meantime more money can be 'found' by finding more cases, so it goes.
Heres the thing. If all of this mass fraud is happening where are the people coming out saying they were misdiagnosed. Or family members saying that the wrong cause of death was put on the death certificate.
I mean. People act like this is happening by the thousands. Would have to be hundred of thousands to fudge the numbers the way people act like they are being fudged. If that's the case where are all the family members calling hospitals out? [Reply]
Originally Posted by Chitownchiefsfan:
Heres the thing. If all of this mass fraud is happening where are the people coming out saying they were misdiagnosed. Or family members saying that the wrong cause of death was put on the death certificate.
I mean. People act like this is happening by the thousands. Would have to be hundred of thousands to fudge the numbers the way people act like they are being fudged. If that's the case where are all the family members calling hospitals out?
I don't think fraud, blatant falsification of test results, is something I have read suggested. There have been suggestions of irregularities like retesting old samples, reporting multiple tests on the same patient as new cases, reporting positive antibody tests as new cases when the case may have been reported earlier, combing through charts to find old 'suspected' cases, things like that.
This might not be wrong, but if there is money to be found people will be assigned to find it. You will get what you measure, especially when you tie dollars to it. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Bearcat:
Hospitals are required to report cases... no idea if there's some kind of penalty for not doing so, but since they have/had no idea when elective surgeries are/were coming back, they might as well go the route of over-reporting and getting money instead of under-reporting and not getting money and possibly getting into deep shit.
in your scenario the only options are intentionally underreporting or overreporting?
Originally Posted by Bearcat:
The state of Kansas also says you have to quarantine after travelling to Arizona, among other states.... I assume it's only "strongly recommended" though, since they don't even have their own major airport they can monitor for incoming travelers.
Yes, I know, that's why they didn't come. They thought they would have to stay here for 2 weeks and I told them they had it backwards but oh well. And yes, it is a recommendation. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Eleazar:
I don't think fraud, blatant falsification of test results, is something I have read suggested. There have been suggestions of irregularities like retesting old samples, reporting multiple tests on the same patient as new cases, reporting positive antibody tests as new cases when the case may have been reported earlier, combing through charts to find old 'suspected' cases, things like that.
This might not be wrong, but if there is money to be found people will be assigned to find it. You will get what you measure, especially when you tie dollars to it.
I would totally agree, when it comes to being paid for metrics hospitals will absolutely do what they need to get appropriately compensated for metrics they meet
In regards to avoiding reporting people more than once if they are retested, that may be logistically challenging to avoid [Reply]
Originally Posted by Eleazar:
I don't think fraud, blatant falsification of test results, is something I have read suggested. There have been suggestions of irregularities like retesting old samples, reporting multiple tests on the same patient as new cases, reporting positive antibody tests as new cases when the case may have been reported earlier, combing through charts to find old 'suspected' cases, things like that.
This might not be wrong, but if there is money to be found people will be assigned to find it. You will get what you measure, especially when you tie dollars to it.
I can tell first hand that hospitals across the country are hurting badly financially. It was one thing to shut down elective surgeries at first because you thought you would need those doctors\nurses\beds for Covid.
After a couple weeks when it became evident to everyone that with the exception of NY and NJ, that was not the case they should have opened up elective procedures but they didn't.
Now hospitals across the country, ours included, are laying people off and some are flat closing the doors. [Reply]
Originally Posted by SupDock:
I would totally agree, when it comes to being paid for metrics hospitals will absolutely do what they need to get appropriately compensated for metrics they meet
In regards to avoiding reporting people more than once if they are retested, that may be logistically challenging to avoid
My thing is I don't necessarily care how the hospitals fudge the numbers. I don't. It's how the politicians react knowing the numbers are being played but act as if they aren't.
For example: I have a motorcycle wreck and break some ribs and a leg. I get admitted to the hospital. I get tested by default for Covid. I test positive. I am now "hospitalized" with Covid but not because of Covid.
Unfortunately that doesn't play out when the numbers get reported and if it does the media by an large ignores is because they want the shock factor. [Reply]
