Mentions the Chiefs several times, so figured you guys would want to see it.
The Bills are the team no one, including the Chiefs wants to see in the playoffs
Forget the Ravens. Forget the Bucs. The team you don't want to play in January is the Buffalo Bills.
With all due respect to the Packers, the AFC's No. 2 overall seed may very well be the second-best team in the NFL.
The Bills crushed the Dolphins 56-26 in a game Miami needed for their playoff hopes. And maybe we didn't see a 30-point win coming, but it's in line with what the Bills have been doing to teams in recent weeks.
Buffalo has had a top-five scoring defense since Week 12. If not for the Hail Murray they would have finished on a 10-game win streak dating back to before Halloween.
And then there's Josh Allen. The third-year franchise quarterback has, in consecutive weeks, set the Bills single-season records for passing touchdowns and passing yards.
What I love most about the Bills is that they aren't even letting teams hang around. Since that Week 10 loss to the Cardinals, not a single team has finished within a possession of the Bills.
I go back to that Week 6 loss to the Chiefs. Head coach Sean McDermott picked his poison and let the Chiefs' run game beat them up so that Patrick Mahomes wouldn't. Kansas City rushed for 245 yards and Mahomes passed for 225 yards.
But with about 5 minutes left in the game and down 23-17, the Bills forced a Clyde Edwards-Helaire fumble that would have given the Bills the ball at the Kansas City 31.
They would have had a chance to take the lead against the Chiefs there. But instead, the replay showed Edwards-Helaire's knee was down just before the ball came out. Mahomes took the Chiefs down for the field goal and that provided the final margin of victory.
Allen is a better quarterback today than he was then. The defense is playing far better ball. And after sweeping the Patriots and beating the likes of the Seahawks and Steelers, the Bills now know how to win big games.
Originally Posted by Bowser:
I think the Steelers are the team that gives me the most pause. Ben is a shadow of what he was but is still a future HoF'er, they have weapons on offense, their defense is legit (I really, really wanted us to trade for Fitzpatrick, grr. Happy with Badger and would love to have both, but still), and they are postseason veterans with Tomlin.
It goes without saying that any team in the field can be beat on any given day, including the Chiefs
But I think we're a horrible matchup for them as it stands today. Maybe before the Bush and Dupree injuries, yes, but not without them. I think (as is the case with most teams) that they don't have a great answer for either Hill or Kelce, and they will have to manufacture pressure by blitzing (so long as if we can game plan around Watt and Hayward). And if they have to blitz, then that opens the door for both Hill and Kelce to have big days....
Also, the way the Steelers as well play offense really matches up well with our defensive style. Our two "Achilles" on D, if there really is one, is the deep ball threat that the Raiders exposed (but since that point, we really shored that up pretty well.) and the run game.
What we've always done very well is keep the short / intermediate stuff in front of us, and for as much as some around here like to complain about our tackling, we've actually done a very nice job of it on those 3rd and 5 type plays and getting off the field.
We're still very average in stopping the run, but the Steelers don't run very effectively either, so that's weakness on weakness, and when we do dedicate assets to stopping the run, we seem to do just fine.
The wild card to me is Big Ben.....the dude has been around the block many times, and has two rings, so I think we have to assume he comes ready to play (regardless of how "done" he may actually be).....if he can expose the deep ball, then that could be problematic, but nothing to this point indicates that can be done.
Obviously, in a one game situation, none of the above may apply, but as far as matchups go, I really like the way we match up v. them (hell, we were 14-2....I like the way we matchup with anyone really lol....) [Reply]
Originally Posted by htismaqe:
Just don't start in a 14-21 point hole and that would be good for me. I'd like to see them score on their first drive too.
Its amazing that they went 3 and out in all of the playoff games last year, including the Super Bowl..... [Reply]
Originally Posted by UChieffyBugger:
But how many run based teams do we have to beat before people comprehend that we can defeat that style? Titans?? Ravens?? Broncos?? What makes the Colts any different to those sides?
Originally Posted by Bearcat:
That's been disproven for the most part... teams built around outscoring the Chiefs have the best chance at success.
I’m not saying I think the Colts are good enough to beat us with that strategy just simply saying that the strategy has had the best success against us over shootout teams. The only losses Patrick Mahomes has in the last 2 seasons were to Indianapolis last year (180 yards rushing, 151 passing yards, 37:15 to 22:45 TOP), Texans (192 rushing yards, 280 passing yards, 39:48 to 20:12 TOP) Titans (225 rushing yards, 146 passing yards 22:08 to 37:52 TOP *how did we lose this game?!*) and this year to the Raiders (144 rushing yards, 346 passing yards, 35:18 to 24:42 TOP)
Nobody the past 2 years has beaten Patrick Mahomes with less than around 145 rushing yards. 3/4 losses (minus the Titans anomaly that I still don’t know how we lost looking back on that game) had an average Time of possession advantage of 37:27 to 23:33. So while we definitely still beat primary running teams I think I like our chances against a team that wants to run and gun with us over a team that wants to wear our lines down and control the time of possession and grind out games. I don’t know how that strategy being the best plan has been disproven when it’s the only strategy that’s really worked the last couple years. [Reply]
Originally Posted by POND_OF_RED:
I’m not saying I think the Colts are good enough to beat us with that strategy just simply saying that the strategy has had the best success against us over shootout teams. The only losses Patrick Mahomes has in the last 2 seasons were to Indianapolis last year (180 yards rushing, 151 passing yards, 37:15 to 22:45 TOP), Texans (192 rushing yards, 280 passing yards, 39:48 to 20:12 TOP) Titans (225 rushing yards, 146 passing yards 22:08 to 37:52 TOP *how did we lose this game?!*) and this year to the Raiders (144 rushing yards, 346 passing yards, 35:18 to 24:42 TOP)
Nobody the past 2 years has beaten Patrick Mahomes with less than around 145 rushing yards. 3/4 losses (minus the Titans anomaly that I still don’t know how we lost looking back on that game) had an average Time of possession advantage of 37:27 to 23:33. So while we definitely still beat primary running teams I think I like our chances against a team that wants to run and gun with us over a team that wants to wear our lines down and control the time of possession and grind out games. I don’t know how that strategy being the best plan has been disproven when it’s the only strategy that’s really worked the last couple years.
The lost the Texans and Colts games last year because of all the injuries. Mahomes was just coming back from the knee, Fisher was hurt, Hill and Watkins were hurt. The team was rattled. That's why they lost.
The Raiders game this year absolutely WAS a shootout. The Raiders won because they put the ball over the top of the defense. The running game wasn't even that good. Jacobs average 3.7ypc and their rushing totals were inflated by one big run.
If you look at all the losses over the last 3 years, and look at the games where Mahomes was truly healthy, the only games they've lost were ALL shootouts. Every single one. [Reply]
Originally Posted by New World Order:
So is he gone? Kinda wanted him here until bills blow it in the playoffs again
Originally Posted by htismaqe:
The lost the Texans and Colts games last year because of all the injuries. Mahomes was just coming back from the knee, Fisher was hurt, Hill and Watkins were hurt. The team was rattled. That's why they lost.
The Raiders game this year absolutely WAS a shootout. The Raiders won because they put the ball over the top of the defense. The running game wasn't even that good. Jacobs average 3.7ypc and their rushing totals were inflated by one big run.
If you look at all the losses over the last 3 years, and look at the games where Mahomes was truly healthy, the only games they've lost were ALL shootouts. Every single one.
This. The only way to beat KC with a healthy Mahomes is to win a shootout. All other strategies have proven to fail. [Reply]
Originally Posted by htismaqe:
The lost the Texans and Colts games last year because of all the injuries. Mahomes was just coming back from the knee, Fisher was hurt, Hill and Watkins were hurt. The team was rattled. That's why they lost.
The Raiders game this year absolutely WAS a shootout. The Raiders won because they put the ball over the top of the defense. The running game wasn't even that good. Jacobs average 3.7ypc and their rushing totals were inflated by one big run.
If you look at all the losses over the last 3 years, and look at the games where Mahomes was truly healthy, the only games they've lost were ALL shootouts. Every single one.
The Raiders loss was a shootout in the first half. The second half was completely a time of possession strategy that they controlled both line of scrimmages and doubled our time of possession with short yardage passes setting up more short yardage third down situations eating clock and tiring our defense and keeping Mahomes and the offense out of rythym. That 8 minute touch down drive to end the 3rd and begin the 4th in their momentum was the back breaking drive.
The only games they’ve lost the last two years with Mahomes in the lineup have been ground and pound line of scrimmage strategy games. Every single one. The stats don’t lie. [Reply]
Definitely do not want to play man coverage against him.
The disparity isn't THAT high, he has a higher completion percentage against zone but only 11 TD's (vs. 25) and 8 INT's (vs. 2).
Really depends. In the Rams game Buffalo raced out to a big lead in the 1st half while the Rams were in zone. They switched to man (and Buffalo got one more TD as they were already in the red zone) but then Allen was awful against pressure/man vs zone he saw in 1st half.
The one thing you do not do against Allen is play soft/stagnant zone. That plays into his strengths. If you do play zone, play Tennessee style cloud which tests ability to throw with anticipation (Allen struggles with this).
Whatever the plan is, make him PROCESS. KC used fake pre-snap looks to delay him and when he had to figure it out later he was terrible.
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
Really depends. In the Rams game Buffalo raced out to a big lead in the 1st half while the Rams were in zone. They switched to man (and Buffalo got one more TD as they were already in the red zone) but then Allen was awful against pressure/man vs zone he saw in 1st half.
The one thing you do not do against Allen is play soft/stagnant zone. That plays into his strengths. If you do play zone, play Tennessee style cloud which tests ability to throw with anticipation (Allen struggles with this).
It's easy to see where TheDicks gets his schtick though, the whole back half of that thread is people saying that you can only count the 2nd half of the season because Allen "figured it all out".
It's easy to see where TheDicks gets his schtick though, the whole back half of that thread is people saying that you can only count the 2nd half of the season because Allen "figured it all out".
He's unstoppable.
Buffalo hasn't played a good team in ages. Indy will be a shock to their fanbase I think. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BlackOp:
Saw this stat on Allen....interesting.
18 TDs and 3 picks against man, and 3TD and 9 INTs against zone.
Sounds like zone + blitzing might be the call in a high pressure game. Make Allen decipher where the soft spots in the Zone are quickly...
Spags did it the first time.
We’ve got really smart defensive coaches across the board, they won’t make it easy for any QB in the month to come.
Also, I’d like to see how Allen responds just when a team actually does an adequate job of limiting Diggs. He led the league in catches and yards. Allen’s eyes go there early and often. If you could really cover him up (physical with CB, safety over top), with zone coverage, what’s Allen do then? [Reply]
