1. Chiefs finish 12-4, winning a first round bye. Unfortunately, the Steelers come to town and upset them. They have the 27th pick in the draft. Alex Smith, Andy Reid, and John Dorsey are all retained.
2. OLB Tamba Hali retires.
3. RB Jamaal Charles renegotiates a contract down to 2 years, $4m; P Dustin Colquitt renegotiates his contract down to 2 years, $5m.
4. NT Dontari Poe is franchised.
5. DE Allen Bailey is traded for a 3rd rounder and a 2018 mid-rounder.
6. S Eric Berry is re-signed for 4 years, $44m ($19m guaranteed); S Daniel Sorensen is re-signed for 2 years, $5m; K Cairo Santos is re-signed for 4 years, $12m ($2m guaranteed).
7. The following players are brought back on minimum deals: LS James Winchester
8. The Chiefs do not tender anyone.
9. The following players walk in free agency: QB Nick Foles, RB Knile Davis, RB Bishop Sankey, WR Albert Wilson, OG Mike Person, DE Kendall Reyes, DE Jarvis Jenkins
10. The following players are cut: FB Anthony Sherman, TE Demetrius Harris, OT Jah Reid, OLB Frank Zombo, CB Kenneth Acker
11. The Chiefs bring in 4 compensatory picks: a 4th (Sean Smith), a 5th (Chase Daniel), and two 6ths (Donald Stephenson & Tyvon Branch).
On with the show:
1st. QB Chad Kelly, Ole Miss
Dorsey's primary move here is to usually find someone who can replace a departing veteran after the 2017 season. But there are no obvious candidates for that this year. Jaye Howard will be on the last year of his deal but Rakeem Nunez-Roches seems ready to take over. DJ is under contract until 2018, but who knows how close he is to retirement. Same with Alex Smith.
I'm going to assume the Chiefs pick someone to challenge and push Smith. They let Foles walk in my hypothetical, and who knows about Bray.
Kelly is perfect for the Andy Reid offense. He's a nephew of Jim Kelly, and has great accuracy and is an excellent leader with lots of mental fortitude. He loves to be hyperaggressive passing the ball, and while that's a welcome change of pace in KC, he'll make some mistakes for a season or two while he learns to harness that impulse.
2nd. CB Sidney Jones, Washington
The Chiefs really like Phillip Gaines, but he can't stay healthy. After their aborted effort on KeiVarae Russell, the Chiefs take another shot.
If you're looking for a Marcus Peters clone, you're out of luck, but Jones is as close as you're going to get. Jones is a hyperaggressive corner, smaller than Peters, but with superior ballskills and tight man-to-man ability.
3rd (Bailey). OLB Josh Carroway, TCU
With Tamba Hali out of the picture, the Chiefs have too much experience losing their stud passrushers not to make an insurance pick here.
Carroway is a ferocious rusher in the Hali mold; he is not the best athlete, but he boasts great strength at the point of attack and can overpower blockers.
3rd. RB Wayne Gallman, Clemson
With a RB stable of Ware, Charles, and West, the Chiefs have a very good bellcow, a declining Hall of Famer, and a decent reserve who may have lost his burst. While that's a decent stable, Ware is the only true bellcow in the bunch.
Gallman is a true bellcow as well. He is a versatile talent, capable of punishing runs up the gut as well as nifty, shifty runs off tackle. His work in the receiving game has gone leaps and bounds as well. By the end of the season, I imagine he and Ware will be in a time share.
4th. WR Stacy Coley, Miami
Coley is a perfect receiver for the Chiefs. He has great deep speed and can stretch the field, but with some refinement on his routes, he should be the quick-route speedster Alex Smith loves throwing to.
Something the Chiefs absolutely do not have is an ILB that can play sideline-to-sideline with superior instincts should DJ go down. Justin March has the ability, but is currently lacking the instincts and has gone on IR two consecutive years. Reeves-Maybin is a super athlete for the position with good instincts, and should he manage to get a bit stronger against the run, should be a three-down ILB in the NFL.
5th. NT Tanzel Smart, Tulane
Smart is a truly impactful presence for an otherwise miserable football program. He is a shocking talent that I find myself loving. He's fast, anchors well, fundamentally sound with very good technique for someone his age.
5th (compensatory). OT Taylor Moton, Western Michigan
This guy seems exactly like the kind of player Dorsey would track down in the mid-to-late rounds. He has an NFL frame with very good mobility. He lives by the run game, though he will need time to develop his technique.
Love going through these when you post them; my favorite parts are the hypotheticals at the beginning. My opinions/thoughts:
+ I think 12-4 is accurate. I don't think it will be the Steelers to knock us out; potentially a divisional foe or Brady and the Pats in the AFC Championship.
+ Allen Bailey's trade value is greatly diminished coming off of a serious shoulder injury. I don't know that we can get a 3rd for him based on the risk.
+ I do think we franchise Poe and resign Berry
+ I like retaining Sorenson, as he's played his ass off this year.
+ I think Dorsey showed his desire for valuing the FB position when he traded Arenas for Sherman. One of his first moves, I believe? I don't know that we discard the sausage that quickly for a rookie.
+ Glad to see Albert Wilson and Demetrius Harris out the door.
+ I firmly believe Dorsey is actively looking for Smith's replacement and the QBOTF. That said, I don't know who will be available at the end of round 1 and if the talent/fit will be there. That said, going off of the "replacement starter a year before it's necessary" trend, I believe it will be ILB (DJ) or Edge (Hali's roster spot, sitting behind Ford and Houston).
+ I also think we take a Guard in rounds 2 or 3. We've rebuilt the line with 3 young studs in early rounds (Fisher, Morse, Ehinger), lucked out with LDT late and Schwartz in FA. With Ehinger down, and Fulton being kind of an un-athletic swing... I could see us pulling the trigger on a solid G prospect. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BryanBusby:
Chad Kelly wasn't a first rounder before the ACL tear. He sure ain't now.
The Chiefs would be in the range, if you're set on QB in the first, to take Watson instead...who's a better fit for a WCO anyhow.
Watson is my preferred option due to the combination of being attainable and being athletic enough to run this system well.
I worry about his build and his accuracy (he'll follow a beautiful deep ball on the move with a flat out whiff on a 10 yard cross with a clean pocket), but that's why he may fall to us.
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Watson is my preferred option due to the combination of being attainable and being athletic enough to run this system well.
I worry about his build and his accuracy (he'll follow a beautiful deep ball on the move with a flat out whiff on a 10 yard cross with a clean pocket), but that's why he may fall to us.
It's probably time to pull the trigger.
I think thats a combo of the Tigers offensive line no longer mauling every down and his footwork needs some definite work.
He has been playing unsettled a lot this season. [Reply]
I really like Chad Kelly's projection to the pros from a physical skill set perspective, much like I did Johnny Manziel. Like Manziel, however, I worry about his future due to his off-field behaviors. This is not a guy I'd take in the first two rounds of the draft purely on that factor. I'd consider a shot late 3rd, nothing prior.
I like Sydney Jones, I don't like his Gaines-esque build.
Carraway... I dunno. I don't think he has that killer instinct you want. He gets production, but he also spends alot of time dancing and on his heels. He doesn't seem to attack and finish plays when they present themselves. Last year's Oklahoma game is a prime example of keeping his assignments but not closing to finish plays.
I really like Gallman in the 3rd/4th.
Coley is solid. I don't think he's as fast as advertised and he's' kind of a long strider that doesn't appear to have that good agility, but we'll see. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Tribal Warfare:
Mitch Trubisky, if he declares KC should truly consider trading up or out right select him especially if Alex stays in Full-Cassel mode