Assumptions:

1. Chiefs finish 12-4, winning a first round bye. Unfortunately, the Steelers come to town and upset them. They have the 27th pick in the draft. Alex Smith, Andy Reid, and John Dorsey are all retained.

2. OLB Tamba Hali retires.

3. RB Jamaal Charles renegotiates a contract down to 2 years, $4m; P Dustin Colquitt renegotiates his contract down to 2 years, $5m.

4. NT Dontari Poe is franchised.

5. DE Allen Bailey is traded for a 3rd rounder and a 2018 mid-rounder.

6. S Eric Berry is re-signed for 4 years, $44m ($19m guaranteed); S Daniel Sorensen is re-signed for 2 years, $5m; K Cairo Santos is re-signed for 4 years, $12m ($2m guaranteed).

7. The following players are brought back on minimum deals: LS James Winchester

8. The Chiefs do not tender anyone.

9. The following players walk in free agency: QB Nick Foles, RB Knile Davis, RB Bishop Sankey, WR Albert Wilson, OG Mike Person, DE Kendall Reyes, DE Jarvis Jenkins

10. The following players are cut: FB Anthony Sherman, TE Demetrius Harris, OT Jah Reid, OLB Frank Zombo, CB Kenneth Acker

11. The Chiefs bring in 4 compensatory picks: a 4th (Sean Smith), a 5th (Chase Daniel), and two 6ths (Donald Stephenson & Tyvon Branch).

On with the show:

1st. QB Chad Kelly, Ole Miss

Dorsey's primary move here is to usually find someone who can replace a departing veteran after the 2017 season. But there are no obvious candidates for that this year. Jaye Howard will be on the last year of his deal but Rakeem Nunez-Roches seems ready to take over. DJ is under contract until 2018, but who knows how close he is to retirement. Same with Alex Smith.

I'm going to assume the Chiefs pick someone to challenge and push Smith. They let Foles walk in my hypothetical, and who knows about Bray.

Kelly is perfect for the Andy Reid offense. He's a nephew of Jim Kelly, and has great accuracy and is an excellent leader with lots of mental fortitude. He loves to be hyperaggressive passing the ball, and while that's a welcome change of pace in KC, he'll make some mistakes for a season or two while he learns to harness that impulse.

2nd. CB Sidney Jones, Washington

The Chiefs really like Phillip Gaines, but he can't stay healthy. After their aborted effort on KeiVarae Russell, the Chiefs take another shot.

If you're looking for a Marcus Peters clone, you're out of luck, but Jones is as close as you're going to get. Jones is a hyperaggressive corner, smaller than Peters, but with superior ballskills and tight man-to-man ability.

3rd (Bailey). OLB Josh Carroway, TCU

With Tamba Hali out of the picture, the Chiefs have too much experience losing their stud passrushers not to make an insurance pick here.

Carroway is a ferocious rusher in the Hali mold; he is not the best athlete, but he boasts great strength at the point of attack and can overpower blockers.

3rd. RB Wayne Gallman, Clemson

With a RB stable of Ware, Charles, and West, the Chiefs have a very good bellcow, a declining Hall of Famer, and a decent reserve who may have lost his burst. While that's a decent stable, Ware is the only true bellcow in the bunch.

Gallman is a true bellcow as well. He is a versatile talent, capable of punishing runs up the gut as well as nifty, shifty runs off tackle. His work in the receiving game has gone leaps and bounds as well. By the end of the season, I imagine he and Ware will be in a time share.

4th. WR Stacy Coley, Miami

Coley is a perfect receiver for the Chiefs. He has great deep speed and can stretch the field, but with some refinement on his routes, he should be the quick-route speedster Alex Smith loves throwing to.

4th (compensatory). ILB Jaylen Reeves-Maybin, Tennessee

Something the Chiefs absolutely do not have is an ILB that can play sideline-to-sideline with superior instincts should DJ go down. Justin March has the ability, but is currently lacking the instincts and has gone on IR two consecutive years. Reeves-Maybin is a super athlete for the position with good instincts, and should he manage to get a bit stronger against the run, should be a three-down ILB in the NFL.

5th. NT Tanzel Smart, Tulane

Smart is a truly impactful presence for an otherwise miserable football program. He is a shocking talent that I find myself loving. He's fast, anchors well, fundamentally sound with very good technique for someone his age.

5th (compensatory). OT Taylor Moton, Western Michigan

This guy seems exactly like the kind of player Dorsey would track down in the mid-to-late rounds. He has an NFL frame with very good mobility. He lives by the run game, though he will need time to develop his technique.

6th (compensatory). DE Christian LaCouture, LSU

6th (compensatory). TE Cam Serigne, Wake Forest

7th. FB Freddie Stevenson, Florida State
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