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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
srvy 04:46 PM 03-31-2020
Originally Posted by Jerm:
I don't know what's worse, nails on a chalkboard or hearing Mike Parsons attempt to complete sentences. Jesus Christ...
Fat Mike is a disgrace.
[Reply]
dirk digler 04:47 PM 03-31-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
I still don't fully understand how that site updates its data.

From my understanding they use as close as real time data as they can get..ie from state health sites.
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TLO 04:47 PM 03-31-2020
Originally Posted by Three7s:
Another rough day for the USA in terms of new cases and deaths. This isn't peaking in April, for sure.
New cases are going to continue to rise as we do a lot more testing. Dr. Fauci himself said we were going to have "millions" of cases in America.
[Reply]
2112 04:47 PM 03-31-2020
Originally Posted by DaFace:
Eh, you can't really determine that. There are already some signs that things are slowing - at least in some areas.

The problem is just that, while we have some areas that are doing a good job of keeping people isolated, other areas...aren't. So it's not gonna be one big, collective curve. We'll see some areas getting better while others get worse until they're forced to get more serious about it.
Exactly. And we’re testing more and more people each day, so of course the numbers are going to go up. Washington and California doing a good job getting it under control. NY, not so much
[Reply]
dirk digler 04:48 PM 03-31-2020

[Reply]
TLO 04:48 PM 03-31-2020
Originally Posted by dirk digler:
From my understanding they use as close as real time data as they can get..ie from state health sites.
The data from 1 day made it determine 2000 less deaths in Missouri overall then.
[Reply]
dirk digler 04:52 PM 03-31-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
The data from 1 day made it determine 2000 less deaths in Missouri overall then.
They have a FAQ now but here is the answer to your question.

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs

Where does IHME obtain its data?
The data being used in these forecasts come from local and national governments, hospital networks like the University of Washington, the American Hospital Association, the World Health Organization, and a range of other sources. The model is updated regularly as new data are available, in order to provide the most up-to-date planning tool possible.
[Reply]
BigRedChief 04:54 PM 03-31-2020
Hey Daface, Rainman and other statistic guru’s, is this possible to do? Reliable?

Working on something where you can model the number of *detected* cases of a disease as a function of the number of *actual* cases and various assumptions about how/how many tests are conducted. pic.twitter.com/fFv2P4L6TO

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 31, 2020

[Reply]
TLO 04:54 PM 03-31-2020
Originally Posted by dirk digler:
They have a FAQ now but here is the answer to your question.

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs

Where does IHME obtain its data?
The data being used in these forecasts come from local and national governments, hospital networks like the University of Washington, the American Hospital Association, the World Health Organization, and a range of other sources. The model is updated regularly as new data are available, in order to provide the most up-to-date planning tool possible.
Thank you
[Reply]
DJ's left nut 04:55 PM 03-31-2020
Originally Posted by Three7s:
Another rough day for the USA in terms of new cases and deaths. This isn't peaking in April, for sure.
It isnt even April yet.

You really feel confident saying we're going to see a nationwide increase in death rates for 30 more days?

Fuck man - that's going to yield, what, 50,000 dead per day by the end of April?

Yes, this will peak in April. If it doesn't then all this social distancing for 6 weeks stuff meant nothing and we were all fucked either way.
[Reply]
Chief Roundup 04:55 PM 03-31-2020
Originally Posted by eDave:
AZ's estamates continue to decline.

We flatline starting in June. Heat related?
That has been shot down by many people including Hamas.
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BigRedChief 04:59 PM 03-31-2020

Watch our visualization to see how confirmed coronavirus cases in the US, Italy, and Spain have exploded in recent weeks. https://t.co/jtXuiAIF6u pic.twitter.com/vr3r4Y9r6r

— MIT Technology Review (@techreview) March 31, 2020

[Reply]
TLO 04:59 PM 03-31-2020
Originally Posted by Chief Roundup:
That has been shot down by many people including Hamas.
Nobody actually knows though. :-)
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DaFace 04:59 PM 03-31-2020
Originally Posted by BigRedChief:
Hey Daface, Rainman and other statistic guru’s, is this possible to do? Reliable?

Sure, you can model it. I'm pretty skeptical he's going to come up with anything all that enlightening, though. If I'm reading the image right, he's just making a shit ton of assumptions and seeing what happens rather than using a dataset to drive the model. But who knows - he's done some cool work in the past.
[Reply]
eDave 05:01 PM 03-31-2020
Originally Posted by Chief Roundup:
That has been shot down by many people including Hamas.
I never bought into that idea. Our general flu season is stretching further into the summer too. Like into July when it is consistently 100+
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