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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
Donger 11:43 AM 07-02-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
I have a question about cases.

Nobody seems to put much stock into "well we're testing more, therefore we're finding more cases."

My question is this. We all remember the stories back in March and April of individuals that were sick and couldn't get a test because of the ridiculously stringent guidelines.

Isn't it feasible we're finding many more asymptomatic/mildly symptomatic cases that are leading to some of the increase?

I'm not saying this is the lone reason for the increase.. but doesn't it seem likely to be playing some role?
Maybe. But there's no getting around the positivity increases. And hospitalizations.
[Reply]
Ninerfan11 11:50 AM 07-02-2020
https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S...534-8/fulltext
[Reply]
petegz28 11:56 AM 07-02-2020
Originally Posted by Ninerfan11:
https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S...534-8/fulltext
You had to go there....you just had to go there
[Reply]
Donger 11:57 AM 07-02-2020
Originally Posted by Ninerfan11:
https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S...534-8/fulltext

[Reply]
BleedingRed 12:00 PM 07-02-2020
Originally Posted by Ninerfan11:
https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S...534-8/fulltext
This study is bad, because reasons
[Reply]
petegz28 12:02 PM 07-02-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
I have a question about cases.

Nobody seems to put much stock into "well we're testing more, therefore we're finding more cases."

My question is this. We all remember the stories back in March and April of individuals that were sick and couldn't get a test because of the ridiculously stringent guidelines.

Isn't it feasible we're finding many more asymptomatic/mildly symptomatic cases that are leading to some of the increase?

I'm not saying this is the lone reason for the increase.. but doesn't it seem likely to be playing some role?
Originally Posted by kgrund:
This is a perfect example of how dangerous it is when people just accept numbers at face value without thinking. Do both of you really believe that any reported number TODAY has any comparative value to any number reported then?! This just in: testing rates have gone way way up since then. In March we were not even getting the tip of the iceberg.

🗽When New York City’s Covid case count peaked in late March, there were 5,000 new cases a day, and more than 60% of tests were coming back positive.

🌵In Arizona, new cases are currently averaging about 3,000 a day and about 20% of tests are positive https://t.co/hAUlB6tJcA

— Bloomberg Opinion (@bopinion) July 2, 2020

[Reply]
petegz28 07-02-2020, 12:03 PM
This message has been deleted by petegz28.
Donger 12:05 PM 07-02-2020
Originally Posted by petegz28:
That's wrong. At peak they were having 10,000 new cases a day. They didn't get below 5,000 new cases/day until early May.

And, Arizona had a 70% positivity rate when they started testing. All states did, for obvious reasons.
[Reply]
kgrund 12:06 PM 07-02-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
Actually, in NY in late March to April (when they saw the highest number of new cases around April 16), they were testing in the 30,000 tests/day range. Florida doesn't seem to be as consistent, for whatever reason, but they are around 35,000/day now.
Fair enough, but you do realize that the "high" in NY was likely not close to actual highs that would have resulted in mid March. The numbers would have likely been several factors higher would be my guess. Even the tests given then could be questioned more than now. As bad as applying tests are now they were far worse then. I remember reading a number of articles back then discussing how poorly those drive thru testing centers were performing tests that were resulting in a significant number of undercounting of likely cases.

The bigger point is we should be very cautious when comparing current numbers to those in the past. Apples to oranges. In fact we should all know by now that these numbers are so screwed up that they provide limited value in truly telling us what when on then and what is going on now. There is a reason that when people invest big dollars in things they ask for audited numbers.
[Reply]
ChiTown 12:10 PM 07-02-2020
This pissing contest in this thread is both epic and quite frankly gross.
[Reply]
Donger 12:11 PM 07-02-2020
Originally Posted by kgrund:
Fair enough, but you do realize that the "high" in NY was likely not close to actual highs that would have resulted in mid March. The numbers would have likely been several factors higher would be my guess. Even the tests given then could be questioned more than now. As bad as applying tests are now they were far worse then. I remember reading a number of articles back then discussing how poorly those drive thru testing centers were performing tests that were resulting in a significant number of undercounting of likely cases.

The bigger point is we should be very cautious when comparing current numbers to those in the past. Apples to oranges. In fact we should all know by now that these numbers are so screwed up that they provide limited value in truly telling us what when on then and what is going on now. There is a reason that when people invest big dollars in things they ask for audited numbers.
Sorry, but I don't understand the point(s) you are trying to make.
[Reply]
lewdog 12:14 PM 07-02-2020
Pete is still a moron. I think his favorite line is “I believe.....”

Good to see.
[Reply]
Pants 12:15 PM 07-02-2020
Originally Posted by ChiTown:
This pissing contest in this thread is both epic and quite frankly gross.
It weirdly largely correlates with my personal impressions of who on this board I have always viewed as intelligent (outside of political or COVID stances) and not so much. It's obviously VERY subjective and means nothing but I found it interesting.
[Reply]
petegz28 12:16 PM 07-02-2020
Originally Posted by lewdog:
Pete is still a moron. I think his favorite line is “I believe.....”

Good to see.
Yeah? And you're ugly
[Reply]
TLO 12:20 PM 07-02-2020
Originally Posted by kgrund:
This is a perfect example of how dangerous it is when people just accept numbers at face value without thinking. Do both of you really believe that any reported number TODAY has any comparative value to any number reported then?! This just in: testing rates have gone way way up since then. In March we were not even getting the tip of the iceberg.
Which is why when you look at the serological studies, you get an estimate (even if the studies/tests are somewhat flawed) of just how many cases we missed.

The CDC itself said for every case diagnosed, 10 go undiagnosed.

Factor in that you pretty much have a coin flip chance of showing symptoms or not...
[Reply]
BigCatDaddy 12:21 PM 07-02-2020
Originally Posted by ChiTown:
This pissing contest in this thread is both epic and quite frankly gross.
I usually just scroll down and see who lost and x out. If someone different post (like you) I actually read it.
[Reply]
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