Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by Bowser:
They can only go off the data they have, and they ARE allowed to extrapolate it out. They do this for not only California, but for New York and other countries going off of THEIR data.
I am only about 20 mins into but the guy makes sense. Now people can get into the you tested this but not that argument all they want but to me that's a lot of trying to have it both ways.
The bottom line is no matter how you slice the cake, there are more cases out there than we know about which does indeed shrink the death rate or CFR or whatever significantly.
What number you use and what method you use to get that number is a debate to be had I am sure but I will guarantee that the number is much higher than we have now regardless. [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
Somewhat, but there could also be problems with how those were set up.
Like we had issues with the assumptions in the early models, this could be a similar issue.
From what I understand this wasn't a "study". This is using actual data reported and then extrapolating. I am not all the way through this so I could be wrong but the fact of the matter is he is more right than he is wrong in the fact that we know there are more cases out there than what has been reported. [Reply]
I don't understand when negative info comes out nothing is questioned but if positive comes out you can't trust it and scrutinize every last detail.
It's getting very old, and to the point where I am starting to believe people enjoy it.
I think the same here. We are so quick to take and instance of negative news and use to to support a nuke type solution but anything positive ore even perceived and positive is debated into oblivion. [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
It the study is not properly set up, you can't really gain much from it.
But by what standards? Is it just strictly a numbers issue? If you're saying we have to have a vast majority of the country tested before we start thinking herd mentality can actually work, then we're all going to be sitting on our asses in quarantine for a long long time. They make the case as to why this is a really poor idea, as well. [Reply]
Originally Posted by petegz28:
From what I understand this wasn't a "study". This is using actual data reported and then extrapolating. I am not all the way through this so I could be wrong but the fact of the matter is he is more right than he is wrong in the fact that we know there are more cases out there than what has been reported.
If they're using pcr positives to extrapolate out to the public, well, that won't work i don't think. I haven't watched it yet though so I won't be for sure. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Bowser:
But by what standards? Is it just strictly a numbers issue? If you're saying we have to have a vast majority of the country tested before we start thinking herd mentality can actually work, then we're all going to be sitting on our asses in quarantine for a long long time. They make the case as to why this is a really poor idea, as well.
Standards of how these are set up. If we're going to test and trace and isolate, yeah, you're gonna have to test the vast majority of the population multiple times.
Certain standards have to be met for studies to be considered. DaFace could probably comment more on the math of it than i ever could though. [Reply]
I don't understand when negative info comes out nothing is questioned but if positive comes out you can't trust it and scrutinize every last detail.
It's getting very old, and to the point where I am starting to believe people enjoy it.
The best line from that video - "You quarantine the sick, not the healthy."
And before anyone jumps on them for saying that, both doctors agree that in the beginning before they had any hard numbers that quarantining was the right move. But now that they have numbers and can see patterns, it really isn't. [Reply]