I know the title is my own question, but I'm going to answer my own question. This guy has very clearly shown that last year was an absolute fluke. He can't do anything worth a shit and if Veach wouldn't have given him a stupid ass extension, then he'd be off this team. In what universe do you keep giving the ball to a guy that has 41 rushes for 70 yards and 1.7 ypc. This last game was absolute dog shit 11 total touches for 6 ****ing yards. Are you kidding me? He shouldn't touch the ball again.
Bad is an understatement. He's horrendous. Literally the absolute worst back in the league. There are 43 qualified players and he ranks 43rd in ypc. He's at 1.7 ypc and no one else is under 3.0 ypc. The distance between him and the 42nd rank player, Le'Veon Bell, is 1.3 ypc. The distance between Le'Veon Bell and the 20th ranked player, Chris Carson, is 1.3 ypc.
This is definitely something that needs brought up more. That's gotta be some kind of record for worst ever. We are seeing history boys. The absolute worst RB performance in the history of the game or close. I took off the hide non qualifiers filter and it looks even worse. He's 192 out of 227. There are only 5 other players with 10+ carries that average less ypc, it's pretty much a Who's Who of most electric runners in the league.
#194 Kalen Ballage - 22 car/36 yards/1.6 ypc/13 carries since being demoted from being a starter 3 games ago
#198 Joe Flacco - 11 car/11 yards/1.0 ypc/He's a statue of a QB. **** id hope Williams would have more ypc than this bum. Spoiler alert - all the rest of this list is the same. Statue QBs.
#208 Jared Goff
#210 Jimmy G.
#213 Tom Brady
Did some more research and going all the way back to 1999, so 20 other years, and the lowest ypc for qualified runners is 2.5 ypc in 1999. The average of all the lowest ypc is 2.9. I can't believe how bad that he has been. There is no way anyone can even try to defend him. He's the king of shit fest running backs and for Reid to continue to allow him to play is egregious. [Reply]
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho:
It’s also hard to statistically analyze a sample as small as 16 ... because the outliers are such a large part of the sample.
Ur nan is such a large part of the sample. [Reply]
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho:
It’s also hard to statistically analyze a sample as small as 16 ... because the outliers are such a large part of the sample.
This is also true. And something I mentioned about two months ago in this thread. But for the purposes of looking at a single game/event/whatever, it is usually SOP to remove the outliers.
For the purposes of looking at an entire season or several seasons, or a career, you might leave those outliers in, as they wouldn't skew the data so much. It would depend on what you're trying to look at.
But even if we look at just this season, his two big runs skew the data a bit. Leaving those runs in makes it look like he's been running slightly better than league average over his 111 rushes, but we know this isn't the case.
Earlier this season he was running for an average of less than 2 yards/carry, which is how this thread got started in the first place.
Since the GB game his efficiency has improved (about 4 yards/carry), taking out the LAC game (MEX) where he got dinged.
Add in today's game and he's rushing for about 4.5 yards/carry for the season, which could mislead one to think that he's been running for about league average+ this year, but of course we know that isn't true.
The truth is that he's run for about 3.6-8 yards/carry recently, which is better than his earlier average of 1.7 yards/carry, with two big games in the last 6 weeks or so that have bumped his numbers up to 4.5-6 yards/carry.
But the reality is that he's running for about 3.6 yards/carry in the last 5-6 weeks, and has had some monster rushes in that span.
What we should take away from all of this is that he is an average RB (slightly below?) that has explosive speed and can take it all the way if he finds some space.
Not that he's an above-average RB.
But he showed a similar tendency last year, so maybe he also has a late-season push tendency as well.
Whatever. He's running better than he was for the first 8 weeks or so. That's great for the team and for himself. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Megatron96:
This is also true. And something I mentioned about two months ago in this thread. But for the purposes of looking at a single game/event/whatever, it is usually SOP to remove the outliers.
For the purposes of looking at an entire season or several seasons, or a career, you might leave those outliers in, as they wouldn't skew the data so much. It would depend on what you're trying to look at.
But even if we look at just this season, his two big runs skew the data a bit. Leaving those runs in makes it look like he's been running slightly better than league average over his 111 rushes, but we know this isn't the case.
Earlier this season he was running for an average of less than 2 yards/carry, which is how this thread got started in the first place.
Since the GB game his efficiency has improved (about 4 yards/carry), taking out the LAC game (MEX) where he got dinged.
Add in today's game and he's rushing for about 4.5 yards/carry for the season, which could mislead one to think that he's been running for about league average+ this year, but of course we know that isn't true.
The truth is that he's run for about 3.6-8 yards/carry recently, which is better than his earlier average of 1.7 yards/carry, with two big games in the last 6 weeks or so that have bumped his numbers up to 4.5-6 yards/carry.
But the reality is that he's running for about 3.6 yards/carry in the last 5-6 weeks, and has had some monster rushes in that span.
What we should take away from all of this is that he is an average RB (slightly below?) that has explosive speed and can take it all the way if he finds some space.
Not that he's an above-average RB.
But he showed a similar tendency last year, so maybe he also has a late-season push tendency as well.
Whatever. He's running better than he was for the first 8 weeks or so. That's great for the team and for himself.
The thing is, all high YPC backs bust a long one here and there.
Damien hasn't been very good for most of the season; of course he's been dinged a lot too. And our line has been shit in the run blocking department for the most part.
He has some vision issues. There was a fumble or two early in the year.
But you can't just throw out his big runs unless you're going to throw out all the other backs' big runs too.
Today even early on I noticed he looked faster than he has this season. Maybe he's truly healthy for the first time? [Reply]
Originally Posted by Chris Meck:
I get what he's saying, but in order to make a fair comparison, you would also have to pull the other backs' top runs out and then compare.
The old 4.0 ypc average as sort of the standard of a decent back doesn't really hold water if you're going to pull the home runs out.
If you're going to pull Damien's, then you're going to have pull Derrick Henry's too. And then compare. See what I'm saying?
And I'm NOT saying Damien is Derrick Henry.
I'm just saying there IS a stark difference in his play recently as compared to earlier in the year.
Some of that is line play; in fact a lot of it is.
But the line was run blocking much better today. That 84 yarder was just an offguard run. Nothing fancy. Wisniewski effect? I think maybe so.
One could also make an argument for the median. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Chris Meck;14684699[B:
]I get what he's saying, but in order to make a fair comparison, you would also have to pull the other backs' top runs out and then compare.
The old 4.0 ypc average as sort of the standard of a decent back doesn't really hold water if you're going to pull the home runs out.
If you're going to pull Damien's, then you're going to have pull Derrick Henry's too. And then compare. See what I'm saying?[/B]
And I'm NOT saying Damien is Derrick Henry.
I'm just saying there IS a stark difference in his play recently as compared to earlier in the year.
Some of that is line play; in fact a lot of it is.
But the line was run blocking much better today. That 84 yarder was just an offguard run. Nothing fancy. Wisniewski effect? I think maybe so.
100%. Whatever you do to one player, whenever you compare to others, you HAVE to fo to the others. As a math teacher I can get behind removing the outliers to truly gauge typical performance but it has to be done the save for everyone included in the comparison. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Chris Meck:
I get what he's saying, but in order to make a fair comparison, you would also have to pull the other backs' top runs out and then compare.
The old 4.0 ypc average as sort of the standard of a decent back doesn't really hold water if you're going to pull the home runs out.
If you're going to pull Damien's, then you're going to have pull Derrick Henry's too. And then compare. See what I'm saying?
And I'm NOT saying Damien is Derrick Henry.
I'm just saying there IS a stark difference in his play recently as compared to earlier in the year.
Some of that is line play; in fact a lot of it is.
But the line was run blocking much better today. That 84 yarder was just an offguard run. Nothing fancy. Wisniewski effect? I think maybe so.
OF COURSE you take out the outliers for every other back/WR/TE/whatever. I thought that was a given.
I'm not picking on Damien only. Damien's simply an example. You exclude the outliers for everyone.
Hell, I do this every couple months when I run test ladders for a rifle or a batch of new cartridges.
For example, I have a rifle and a custom cartridge that has shot a 5-shot group of 0.36 inches, from center-to-center at a distance of 200 yards. And I threw out the worst result of 2.35 inches.
But if someone asks me "what will that set-up shoot?" I would never say "0.36 inches @200 yards." Because I've never reproduced that result. After several hundred bench runs, I know that rifle/bullet combo will shoot an average of about 0.80 inches @200 yards. But by the individual shoot, some days it'll shoot a little worse, and every once in a while a little better. That variance is probably me being inconsistent pulling the trigger. Or a bit of wind, or whatever. But by taking the average of the runs, and excluding the outliers I get a lot closer to the truth of the combination.
I don't throw out the outliers just for that gun or that cartridge; I throw them all out for every rifle and every cartridge. It would be stupid to do otherwise.
That way when someone asks me "what will that thing shoot?" I can truthfully and confidently say "it's sub-1/2 MOA." [Reply]
63 carries
398 yards
6.1 ypc average
3 TDs
15 receptions
98 receiving yards
6.1 ypc average
1 TD
1 fumble lost
We should run with this guy as the primary back throughout the playoffs. He thrived during the post-season last year and is coming on at just the right time. [Reply]
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER:
Damien's stats the last five games...
63 carries
398 yards
6.1 ypc average
3 TDs
15 receptions
98 receiving yards
6.1 ypc average
1 TD
1 fumble lost
We should run with this guy as the primary back throughout the playoffs. He thrived during the post-season last year and is coming on at just the right time.
He needs to be guy going forward, no question
Next year he can fight it out with our 3rd rounder and Thompson [Reply]
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER:
Damien's stats the last five games...
63 carries
398 yards
6.1 ypc average
3 TDs
15 receptions
98 receiving yards
6.1 ypc average
1 TD
1 fumble lost
We should run with this guy as the primary back throughout the playoffs. He thrived during the post-season last year and is coming on at just the right time.
Almost half of his carries came on 2 rushes (84 yds and 97 yds). Without those 2 runs he's averaging 3.55 ypc. No one can convince me he's been good when 45% of his yards came on 3% of his carries. [Reply]
