Originally Posted by Three7s:
Yeah, but with how little Andy runs the ball, PA passes have next to no impact. You have to establish the run for it to work properly.
I'm pretty sure this take has been proven false
"Ted Nguyen: It’s actually becoming a lot more accepted even within NFL circles that you don’t need to run the ball for play action to work. And I think that’s one of the big arguments for running the ball is that you have to run the ball to set up play action. But the data has shown that you can still have an effective play action game without “establishing the run.” Because linebackers and defenses — it’s so ingrained for them to have to defend a run. When they see a possible play fake and they see gaps opening up, they’re trained to have to stop that run and move forward. And even if you don’t establish the run, that kind of training is going to make them move up, and that causes your play action to still work.
Paul Michelman: So how does the data actually demonstrate that the play action isn’t as affected by the run as we think?
Ted Nguyen: Ben Baldwin is the guy who really has spearheaded this argument, and he was the first guy who I’ve seen make this argument. And he subtracted the difference between play-action effectiveness and a team’s drop-back effectiveness. He compared that with rushing success rate. He compared that with total rushes and rush percentage. And he found that there was no correlation between those three things and play-action effectiveness versus drop-back passing.
Paul Michelman: Right. So he was using player tracking data for that?
Ted Nguyen: No, Josh Hermsmeyer was the one who used player tracking data to prove that. He was looking at the linebacker movements, and he found that even if you keep using play action over and over again, the linebacker that he was keeping track of kept moving forward towards the run, even when they were using play action over, I think, 12 times. And after that, the data got kind of wacky, but that’s still a large number.
Paul Michelman: So is the linebacker kind of the key determinant in the effectiveness, or lack thereof, of the run? I mean, what about the rest of the defense and how they’re impacted?
Ted Nguyen: Yeah, I think when you’re running play action, the linebacker is the guy that you’re trying to move. Obviously, you have protection. You’re trying to have defensive linemen stay at the line of scrimmage and defend a run, too. There [are] some play actions that will target safeties. But most play-action plays are trying to target linebackers. You’re trying to hit that void behind linebackers by having them move up. So that is the guy that you’re mainly targeting on most play-action concepts.
Paul Michelman: Got it. And is the play action really what it’s all about in this argument? Is the deep ball not really relevant to the run?
Ted Nguyen: I think, overall, that passing the ball deep and passing the ball more is more efficient and will lead to more scoring if you do it a lot more than running the ball. But it’s also debunking that argument that you have to establish the run for play action to work. And play action has been shown or proven to be one of the most effective ways to move the ball."
Feel free to read through the transcript, if you so please.
https://sloanreview.mit.edu/audio/th...y-mostly-dead/
This is of course just one guy. But it seems to a growing idea in a lot of circles that the notion of "establishing the run" isn't really true.
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