Assumptions:
1. The Chiefs finish 12-4, win the AFC West, and secure the 1st overall seed. They host the Raiders and manage to fend them off for a trip to the AFCCG, where they defeat the Pittsburgh Steelers. They lose the Super Bowl to the Seahawks. HC Andy Reid and GM Brett Veach stay on, and QB Alex Smith is retained.
2. OLB Tamba Hali retires.
3. The Chiefs extend QB Alex Smith 3 years, $55m ($20m guaranteed), DE Allen Bailey 4 years, $30m ($15m guaranteed), ILB Derrick Johnson 3 years, $15m ($7m guaranteed), and CB Terrance Mitchell 3 years, $18m ($7m guaranteed). These extensions allow the Chiefs to back-end much of the cap hits, and frees up roughly $20m in cap space.
4. The Chiefs sign K Cairo Santos for 4 years, $11m ($4m guaranteed).
5. The Chiefs tender NT Rakeem Nunez-Roches, ILB Ramik Wilson.
6. The Chiefs sign QB Tyler Bray, RB Akeem Hunt, FB Anthony Sherman, OL Jordan Devey, NT Roy Miller, DE Jarvis Jenkins, ILB Kevin Pierre-Louis to minimal deals.
7. The Chiefs let walk WR Albert Wilson, WR De'Anthony Thomas, OL Zach Fulton, NT Benny Logan, ILB Terrance Smith, CB Phillip Gaines, CB Kenneth Acker, P Dustin Colquitt.
8. The Chiefs sign DE Kyle Williams (Bills) for 2 years, $10m ($2m guaranteed).
9. The Chiefs are picking 31st, and have one compensatory pick (a 6th) for QB Nick Foles. They have three conditionals: a 6th for OT Isaiah Battle, a 7th for DE David King, and a 7th for CB Marcus Cooper.
The draft:
2. WR Deon Cain, Clemson
The Chiefs trade their 2nd, one of their 6ths, and a 2019 5th to move up to the middle of the 2nd round.
Yeah, we all know Veach is going to deal as many of those late rounders as possible. The team doesn't have
that many roster spots open, and one of the things they are going to need is more talent downfield for Smith/Mahomes in the coming years. Cain is a perfect match for both QBs: he has a very fast first step that will endear him to Smith's brand of getting open quickly, and a ridiculous catching radius that will endear him to the creative playmaking of Patrick Mahomes.
The Chiefs let Albert Wilson walk this offseason, and Cain can compete with Chesson and Robinson for the 3rd WR reps.
3. CB Brandon Facyson, Virginia Tech
What did Veach/Dorsey do? They reached out for players with elite measurables over and over again and depend on Reid's outstanding coaching staff to develop them. You can't do much better than a 6'1" CB with outstanding speed. Facyson has some problems with his game, but the Chiefs desperately need a 4th CB who can start on the outside in a pinch. Phillip Gaines was their last attempt at a 3rd rounder to fill this role; Facyson is the next.
4. CB Duke Dawson, Florida
The Chiefs also desperately need more talent at nickel, as Steven Nelson has proven adept but insurance is always necessary. Dawson is an eye opening player at times, with some huge hits and tons of flexibility all over the backfield. I really enjoy watching this kid.
More importantly, with the addition of Facyson and Dawson, the Chiefs have potentially the deepest secondary in the NFL: Peters, Mitchell, Nelson, Facyson, and Dawson are all under contract for 2018 and 2019 at LEAST.
5. DE Darian Roseboro, North Carolina State
The Chiefs trade one of their 6ths and both of their 7ths to move into the 5th round.
Roseboro fits the Nunez-Roches profile: incredible athlete with great motor, as NC State prospects usually are. What's needed here in some elite level coaching, which Britt Reid provides.
6 (Nick Foles). P Johnny Townsend, Florida
With Colquitt on the outs, it's time for the Chiefs to make a move here with with one 6th they didn't package into a trade.
roster:
QB: Smith, Mahomes, Bray
RB: Hunt, Ware, West, Hunt
FB: Sherman
WR: Hill, Conley,
Cain, Robinson, Chesson
TE: Kelce, Harris, Travis
LT: Fisher, Erving
LG: Ehinger, Witzmann
C: Morse, Devey
RG: Duvarney-Tardif, Witzmann
RT: Schwartz, Erving
DE: Jones, Jenkins,
Roseboro
NT: Nunez-Roches, Miller
DE: Bailey,
Williams
OLB: Ford, Kpassagnon
ILB: Ragland, Wilson
ILB: Johnson, Eligwe, Pierre-Louis
OLB: Houston, Zombo
CB: Peters, Mitchell, Nelson,
Facyson,
Dawson
S: Berry, Parker, Sorensen, Murray, McQuay
K: Santos
P:
Townsend
LS: Winchester
[Reply]
I have to agree with kccrow on this one, Direckshun. Any mock that begins with the assumption that we would not only keep Alex but EXTEND him is absolutely senseless.
That's too much money tied up that could be put to far better uses for this team when the future of Kansas City quarterbacking is just sitting there on the fucking bench.
Mahomes is smart. He's not a buttfucking moron like Tyler Bray. Andy Reid has confirmed just as much. Yeah, it takes that four years to MASTER his playbooks, but it's not like Mahomes can only run 25% of the plays just because he's been integrated in the system for a year.
One year is plenty of time for him to have achieved a suitable understanding of NFL timing and operations within the offense. No, he won't be nearly as proficient as Alex in year 2, but he's not going to be drowning out there by any means. Plus an entire year is a lot of time for him to have picked up tips and refined his instincts to not be such a crazy nutcase out there always rolling out and not protecting himself as a passer or a ball carrier in certain circumstances.
A downgrade in the short term is NOT a good reason to flush $20 million down the toilet and waste the current affordability of our QBOTF.
An Alex Smith extension makes zero sense no matter HOW good he plays. Not even a Super Bowl victory is a good enough reason to keep him around.
[Reply]
Originally Posted by RealSNR:
I have to agree with kccrow on this one, Direckshun. Any mock that begins with the assumption that we would not only keep Alex but EXTEND him is absolutely senseless.
That's too much money tied up that could be put to far better uses for this team when the future of Kansas City quarterbacking is just sitting there on the ****ing bench.
Mahomes is smart. He's not a butt****ing moron like Tyler Bray. Andy Reid has confirmed just as much. Yeah, it takes that four years to MASTER his playbooks, but it's not like Mahomes can only run 25% of the plays just because he's been integrated in the system for a year.
One year is plenty of time for him to have achieved a suitable understanding of NFL timing and operations within the offense. No, he won't be nearly as proficient as Alex in year 2, but he's not going to be drowning out there by any means. Plus an entire year is a lot of time for him to have picked up tips and refined his instincts to not be such a crazy nutcase out there always rolling out and not protecting himself as a passer or a ball carrier in certain circumstances.
A downgrade in the short term is NOT a good reason to flush $20 million down the toilet and waste the current affordability of our QBOTF.
An Alex Smith extension makes zero sense no matter HOW good he plays. Not even a Super Bowl victory is a good enough reason to keep him around.
If Alex Smith takes us to the Super Bowl, he's a Chief in 2018. It's probably that simple.
If that's the case, we've got no cap space. Cutting Hali doesn't save us enough to keep the players we want to keep, and I don't want to cut DJ.
So you can extend Bailey (which lowers his cap hit in 2018), extend DJ some so his cap hit in 2018 goes down, Terrance Mitchell won't cost that much in 2018...
But Alex Smith is still going to price us out. So if you extend him this offseason, his cap hit drops dramatically in 2018, and you can sign him for a deal that STILL makes him trade worthy in 2019.
So, yes, I'm doing a little mad scientist shit here. I'm extending my Super Bowl QB so I can trade him in 2019. Outside the box thinking that probably would never fly, but that's never stopped me before.
[Reply]
