Alright, let's get down to some nitty gritty here, folks.
What if Alex Smith is amazing in 2017? The Chiefs hand will be forced -- keep him. 2018 will be the final year of his contract and it's a $20m cap hit. Not unreasonable for a guy playing extremely well.
So, what would the Chiefs have to do?
First, we pretty much have the cap met RIGHT NOW, assuming we bring back absolutely no one who is a free agent. So our cap is royally fucked.
The two most popular ideas right now are cutting DJ/Hali, or letting them both retire, or whatever. Cutting them saves us a combined $15m. We likely have DJ's replacements already on the roster, and Ford will be entering his contract year in 2018.
We can also cut (or trade) Allen Bailey if we want to elevate RNR to a starting slot. Trading Bailey saves us $8m (and nets us a draft pick or whatever). Cutting him saves us $6m.
If Eric Fisher has a really good 2017, maybe we just extend/restructure him at the end of the season. That would lower his cap hit in 2018 (right now it's slated for $14m).
I wouldn't touch Allen Bailey, but I'd cut DJ/Hali and extend/restructure Fisher. That allows us to keep Mr. Smith and have roughly $20m in cap space, $5m of which can go to our rookie class.
I think it's non-negotiable that we bring back Terrance Mitchell, but he shouldn't cost a ton. Bennie Logan might be a good idea -- although, again, we could just play RNR at the nose and be fine (which is what I would do if we kept Smith on the roster).
So my recommendation, keeping Alex rather than trading him:
1. cut/retire DJ
2. cut/retire Hali
3. restructure/extend Fisher
4. extend Terrance Mitchell
5. let basically all of our FAs walk: De'Anthony, Fulton, Logan, Sherman, Albert Wilson, Gaines, Colquitt
6. make a few choice re-signings (Santos, KPL, maybe Gaines?)
That'll leave us thin at DL, OL, and OLB -- which I hate. And the best draft pick we'll have in 2018 will be at the very bottom of the 2nd.
The cracks in Belichick's armor are beginning to show and very soon, Brady won't be able to cover those mistakes.
He's had the greatest QB in NFL history for the past 16 seasons, which has made it easier to create a roster of "JAG's" as opposed to truly talented offensive and defensive players. He can get away Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola and players of that ilk but once they have a non-HOF QB, he'll need to invest draft capital and free agent money into talented offensive and defensive players.
The game will change completely for the Patriots at that point and it'll be interesting to see if Belichick can adjust. Based on his recent trades and dumps (Kony Ealy, Jamie Collins and Chandler Jones), his arrow is pointing down. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud:
The cracks in Belichick's armor are beginning to show and very soon, Brady won't be able to cover those mistakes.
He's had the greatest QB in NFL history for the past 16 seasons, which has made it easier to create a roster of "JAG's" as opposed to truly talented offensive and defensive players. He can get away Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola and players of that ilk but once they have a non-HOF QB, he'll need to invest draft capital and free agent money into talented offensive and defensive players.
The game will change completely for the Patriots at that point and it'll be interesting to see if Belichick can adjust. Based on his recent trades and dumps (Kony Ealy, Jamie Collins and Chandler Jones), his arrow is pointing down.
Plus Brady's contract has always allowed him to add free agents he normally wouldn't be able to [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
Plus Brady's contract has always allowed him to add free agents he normally wouldn't be able to
Yeah, there are all kinds of factors in play but from my perspective, Belichick has made some mistakes the past few years and those will only be magnified when Brady's play inevitably declines and/or he's traded or retired.
There's no way that the current Patriots roster wouldn't be better if they had kept Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins. They have a lack of edge rushers which will likely lead to their downfall. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud:
Yeah, there are all kinds of factors in play but from my perspective, Belichick has made some mistakes the past few years and those will only be magnified when Brady's play inevitably declines and/or he's traded or retired.
There's no way that the current Patriots roster wouldn't be better if they had kept Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins. They have a lack of edge rushers which will likely lead to their downfall.
Bill is one of those coaches that likes to think he's better than everyone else and loves to do it with questionable moves. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Pestilence:
That's yet to be seen. Yeah he can dump players before they drop off a cliff....but can he do it to the most important player on the team? Will he be able to do it and deal with the blowback from fans when it's time to dump Brady? Or will he just ride off into the sunset with Brady and go out on top?
He has done it with Kosar and Bledsoe before, both big fan favorites. Sure they aren't Tom Brady, but I don't think he's afraid to make the move at all. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BryanBusby:
He has done it with Kosar and Bledsoe before, both big fan favorites. Sure they aren't Tom Brady, but I don't think he's afraid to make the move at all.
I don't think that people cared that he moved Bledsoe because the Patriots had just won the Super Bowl with Brady.
Fans were irate about cutting Kosar but he was right. Kosar was done. [Reply]
Another consideration - Andy Dalton could easily be traded. He has 3 years left on his deal at below market value for an average starting QB. He may well have burnt out in Cincy and they could be looking to blow it up.
He's more accomplished, younger, cheaper and under control for longer than Smith is.
So unless Smith kills it this season, why would a team prefer Smith to Dalton if they're looking for a veteran bridge to a younger QB? If you're the Jags and you can have Smith for a season or Dalton for 3 (with no guaranteed dollars still attached).
I don't think Smith will have much trade value. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Another consideration - Andy Dalton could easily be traded. He has 3 years left on his deal at below market value for an average starting QB. He may well have burnt out in Cincy and they could be looking to blow it up.
He's more accomplished, younger, cheaper and under control for longer than Smith is.
So unless Smith kills it this season, why would a team prefer Smith to Dalton if they're looking for a veteran bridge to a younger QB? If you're the Jags and you can have Smith for a season or Dalton for 3 (with no guaranteed dollars still attached).
I don't think Smith will have much trade value.
Andy Dalton is a younger Alex. They are both the definitly average, just different flavors.
Andy is only as good as the talent around him while Alex is Alex regardless of talent. [Reply]