Originally Posted by ChiTown:
I can't believe this is still a thing that triggers people. Kneel, sit, stand, dance, poke your girlfriend, who cares. I'll stand at attention and take off my hat, because that's what the Anthem and the Flag means to me. You can do whatever it means to you. More power to ya.
Yep.
I always thought the people that fought for our rights did just that. Fought for our rights. [Reply]
Originally Posted by RealSNR:
Is this the part where Matheny ruins the careers of several promising pitchers?
Truth is most hot prospects don't turn out to be stars. A fair amount turn out to be complete duds. I have a feeling Matheny is going to get a lot of blame for what is just natural in baseball--a good amount of average players and washouts. [Reply]
Throwing from low 3/4 should normally give you a little run on your four-seamer. Singer already has good four-and-two seam fastballs and attacks both side of the plate well with them. Good control, working towards command (this is what Lynn does really well, which is actually a really good comparison I hadn’t thought about). His slurve is plus some nights and above average most of the rest of the time.
The changeup is just a weird thing. He SHOULD be able to throw a badass circle change from that arm angle.
That was my arm angle and I had no problem with that. It was my best pitch.
I’d also think he should be able to find a tighter, harder slider that he can use to backfoot lefties. If he can work the fastball to both sides with good movement (current skill) and also throw a few variations of his breaker, may not need the change for more than a show-me pitch.
Even with the current mix I think his floor is a solid back-end guy.
Kowar was the best of the bunch in the Texas league, which this Summer Training session is perhaps obscuring. His change gets 70 grades, just wish he could find a breaker.
I think the key for KC is that there is good SP prospect depth behind Singer/Kowar/Lynch/Bubic/Lacy. In addition to them, you’ve got guys like Yefri Del Rosario, Yohanse Morel, Austin Cox, Zach Haake, Jonathan Bowlan (another Lynn-like profile), Alec Marsh, Carlos Hernandez.
Odds of getting 3 quality starters out of that are much better than if you had 4 key guys you were pinning hopes on. [Reply]
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho:
I don't think they're rushing Singer, I think they're just trying to keep him throwing and developing.
They've been working on the change up for a few years now and it just hasn't come along. I don't think it is going to come along.
He's going to need to find something to use against LH to hit that #3 starter upside. I still think a splitter/cutter (or maybe both) is the answer. He has the frame and enormous hands (apparently) so he might be able to do either. I ust don't think he's picking up the change they're trying to teach him (KC has traditionally been a very heavy circle change team in the past).
I think Kowar ends up as a closer. His FB-CH combo is really good (and his FB velocity could ramp into upper 90s easily in one-inning stints) but the curveball just isn't consistent. I watched him yesterday and that thing was not good. I'm growing skeptical he's going to find the feel for it... which is fine (as long as not all of them turn into back-end bullpen guys).
I still can't believe MLB hasn't suspended service time requirements (although maybe it's an MLB PA thing) for this season being that guys will be in and out of the line out with Covid-19.
If service time wasn't a thing, I'd have them all play and have the vets sit most of the time. Better play than not play if there is no milb. [Reply]
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho:
Throwing from low 3/4 should normally give you a little run on your four-seamer. Singer already has good four-and-two seam fastballs and attacks both side of the plate well with them. Good control, working towards command (this is what Lynn does really well, which is actually a really good comparison I hadn’t thought about). His slurve is plus some nights and above average most of the rest of the time.
The changeup is just a weird thing. He SHOULD be able to throw a badass circle change from that arm angle.
That was my arm angle and I had no problem with that. It was my best pitch.
I’d also think he should be able to find a tighter, harder slider that he can use to backfoot lefties. If he can work the fastball to both sides with good movement (current skill) and also throw a few variations of his breaker, may not need the change for more than a show-me pitch.
Even with the current mix I think his floor is a solid back-end guy.
Kowar was the best of the bunch in the Texas league, which this Summer Training session is perhaps obscuring. His change gets 70 grades, just wish he could find a breaker.
I think the key for KC is that there is good SP prospect depth behind Singer/Kowar/Lynch/Bubic/Lacy. In addition to them, you’ve got guys like Yefri Del Rosario, Yohanse Morel, Austin Cox, Zach Haake, Jonathan Bowlan (another Lynn-like profile), Alec Marsh, Carlos Hernandez.
Odds of getting 3 quality starters out of that are much better than if you had 4 key guys you were pinning hopes on.
The problem with trying to back-foot that slider is you absolutely, positively, 100% cannot miss. Hang a slider to a righty as a righty and there's a pretty good chance he still opens up a bit early or squibs it a bit. But man, you hang one to a lefty, especially one you're trying to bury inside instead of back-door, and it's going FAR.
You have to have a burgler's constitution every time you throw it and complete confidence in it. And you have to have pretty damn incredible depth with it or it gets telegraphed a bit and hitters can sit on it too easily (has to start too high to be a strike or too low to keep from getting obliterated).
I was a bad hitter so I always looked at it and thought 'man, that should be an impossible pitch to hit...."
But good hitters? Not so much - a lot of pitchers try to throw it an ultimately it's gotta be a 70+ slider or it's gotta be a complementary pitch that catches them off guard.
Sounds like he has a quasi-curve. Maybe if he could incorporate the both of them to keep lefties off balance he might be able to use the slider off the curve to keep hitters from cheating on it or get them diving at it.
I used Lynn as a comp because he was a guy who I ultimately just accepted for who he is. I stopped waiting for him to develop a pitch to truly neutralize them and instead hoped he'd simply attack them to minimize damage. And in so doing I recognized "y'know what? This will work. He won't win a CY, but he'll be damn valuable even if he always has some lefty issues"
This may be a situation where the guy just has a wart. And if he can play to his strengths, that could easily be good enough. Trying to bury sliders at their back feet? Man, that sure seems like a surgery that's likely to kill the patient... [Reply]
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho:
Throwing from low 3/4 should normally give you a little run on your four-seamer. Singer already has good four-and-two seam fastballs and attacks both side of the plate well with them. Good control, working towards command (this is what Lynn does really well, which is actually a really good comparison I hadn’t thought about). His slurve is plus some nights and above average most of the rest of the time.
The changeup is just a weird thing. He SHOULD be able to throw a badass circle change from that arm angle.
That was my arm angle and I had no problem with that. It was my best pitch.
I’d also think he should be able to find a tighter, harder slider that he can use to backfoot lefties. If he can work the fastball to both sides with good movement (current skill) and also throw a few variations of his breaker, may not need the change for more than a show-me pitch.
Even with the current mix I think his floor is a solid back-end guy.
Kowar was the best of the bunch in the Texas league, which this Summer Training session is perhaps obscuring. His change gets 70 grades, just wish he could find a breaker.
I think the key for KC is that there is good SP prospect depth behind Singer/Kowar/Lynch/Bubic/Lacy. In addition to them, you’ve got guys like Yefri Del Rosario, Yohanse Morel, Austin Cox, Zach Haake, Jonathan Bowlan (another Lynn-like profile), Alec Marsh, Carlos Hernandez.
Odds of getting 3 quality starters out of that are much better than if you had 4 key guys you were pinning hopes on.
I will be stunned if Carlos Hernandez doesn't end up as a 1 inning guy, high velocity, old for his level and injury history. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
The problem with trying to back-foot that slider is you absolutely, positively, 100% cannot miss. Hang a slider to a righty as a righty and there's a pretty good chance he still opens up a bit early or squibs it a bit. But man, you hang one to a lefty, especially one you're trying to bury inside instead of back-door, and it's going FAR.
You have to have a burgler's constitution every time you throw it and complete confidence in it. And you have to have pretty damn incredible depth with it or it gets telegraphed a bit and hitters can sit on it too easily (has to start too high to be a strike or too low to keep from getting obliterated).
I was a bad hitter so I always looked at it and thought 'man, that should be an impossible pitch to hit...."
But good hitters? Not so much - a lot of pitchers try to throw it an ultimately it's gotta be a 70+ slider or it's gotta be a complementary pitch that catches them off guard.
Sounds like he has a quasi-curve. Maybe if he could incorporate the both of them to keep lefties off balance he might be able to use the slider off the curve to keep hitters from cheating on it or get them diving at it.
I used Lynn as a comp because he was a guy who I ultimately just accepted for who he is. I stopped waiting for him to develop a pitch to truly neutralize them and instead hoped he'd simply attack them to minimize damage. And in so doing I recognized "y'know what? This will work. He won't win a CY, but he'll be damn valuable even if he always has some lefty issues"
This may be a situation where the guy just has a wart. And if he can play to his strengths, that could easily be good enough. Trying to bury sliders at their back feet? Man, that sure seems like a surgery that's likely to kill the patient...
All good points.
Re: his slider, he throws kind of a slurve now. It's a more looping breaking ball. If he could tighten that up AND throw both variations it nudges his profile up. You do really have to have that tight, darting slider to get lefties out down and in, for sure.
If he doesn't really fix it, I still think he can be successful with his current mix, just makes it harder to hit a #3 ceiling.
I think it's pretty likely he's a solid back end guy who can give you 5 or 6 innings consistently. And that's fine/useful. Lynch, Lacy, and Kowar are the "high upside" guys in this farm and most likely to give you a 1 or 2 starter.
Originally Posted by Mecca:
I will be stunned if Carlos Hernandez doesn't end up as a 1 inning guy, high velocity, old for his level and injury history.
I think you're probably right about Hernandez and he will find value there. Last year, injuries set him back and kept him from progressing to HighA and obviously this year is not helping with that, either.
He does have a pretty good 3-pitch mix when healthy... plus FB and above AV breaking ball and change... and pretty good command. So I think they'll use him as SP depth before deciding he's a bullpen-only guy.
He's really only a year behind the track a college draftee would be on (A at 21, lost big parts of last year at 22 and finished at same level, 23 this year). [Reply]
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho:
All good points.
Re: his slider, he throws kind of a slurve now. It's a more looping breaking ball. If he could tighten that up AND throw both variations it nudges his profile up. You do really have to have that tight, darting slider to get lefties out down and in, for sure.
If he doesn't really fix it, I still think he can be successful with his current mix, just makes it harder to hit a #3 ceiling.
I think it's pretty likely he's a solid back end guy who can give you 5 or 6 innings consistently. And that's fine/useful. Lynch, Lacy, and Kowar are the "high upside" guys in this farm and most likely to give you a 1 or 2 starter.
And what's lost a lot of the time is that you don't NEED 5 aces. Oh sure, they're nice - but they're not vital.
A 'typical' rotation can do the job. If one of your potential aces turns into a true 200 inning, 140+ ERA+ kind of 'hand the ball in game 1' guys, you're fine if you have a solid #2 and even a handful of #4 guys behind them.
If you have 3 dudes w/ genuine ace potential - yeah, maybe one of 'em hits. Cardinals thought they had that with Reyes, Flaherty and Weaver - one of 'em turned into that guy, one of 'em is probably going to wash out and the other fell somewhere in the middle. That's pretty standard.
So if you have a handful of depth guys behind them that can develop and eventually give you 7 quality arms going into any given season who can start games and give you a roughly league average performance? That's good enough.
Rotation depth is just overlooked a lot of the time. Having a couple spare guys you can trust to throw you 6 quality innings is probably more important than having a guy develop into a '#2 starter' instead of a back of the rotation guy. It's a looooooong season and if you can go out there day after day after day without effectively giving away an L (especially in July/August when attrition has invariably set in), you're ahead of most squads. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower:
How on Earth did the Bluejays think they'd be able to play in Toronto this year?
Why would they not have assumed that? Toronto has been slowly moving forward w/ re-opening efforts, case volumes have continued to decline there and a baseball game with no fans and limited player/team interaction would seem to present a nominal risk to increased cases at best.
I mean - I would've ultimately assumed Toronto to have a handful of rational actors in it somewhere. I mean hell, they're holding one of the 'hockey bubbles' in Toronto. It's clear that Toronto is happy with how things are progressing or they'd have never allowed that. And hockey is an indoor, contact sport that's far more likely to yield spread, IMO.
Toronto's actions here make little sense and lack internal consistency. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
And what's lost a lot of the time is that you don't NEED 5 aces. Oh sure, they're nice - but they're not vital.
A 'typical' rotation can do the job. If one of your potential aces turns into a true 200 inning, 140+ ERA+ kind of 'hand the ball in game 1' guys, you're fine if you have a solid #2 and even a handful of #4 guys behind them.
If you have 3 dudes w/ genuine ace potential - yeah, maybe one of 'em hits. Cardinals thought they had that with Reyes, Flaherty and Weaver - one of 'em turned into that guy, one of 'em is probably going to wash out and the other fell somewhere in the middle. That's pretty standard.
So if you have a handful of depth guys behind them that can develop and eventually give you 7 quality arms going into any given season who can start games and give you a roughly league average performance? That's good enough.
Rotation depth is just overlooked a lot of the time. Having a couple spare guys you can trust to throw you 6 quality innings is probably more important than having a guy develop into a '#2 starter' instead of a back of the rotation guy. It's a looooooong season and if you can go out there day after day after day without effectively giving away an L (especially in July/August when attrition has invariably set in), you're ahead of most squads.
That's the reality of it, and why Dayton keeps drafting pitching. If all of these prospects turned into actual star pitchers we'd be loaded. You're hoping a you're going to get a frontline guy out of this group but it's just as important some of these guys at least turn into #3/4 starters and fill out the pitching staff with solid pitchers. Especially starting pitching, it's so expensive.
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Why would they not have assumed that? Toronto has been slowly moving forward w/ re-opening efforts, case volumes have continued to decline there and a baseball game with no fans and limited player/team interaction would seem to present a nominal risk to increased cases at best.
I mean - I would've ultimately assumed Toronto to have a handful of rational actors in it somewhere. I mean hell, they're holding one of the 'hockey bubbles' in Toronto. It's clear that Toronto is happy with how things are progressing or they'd have never allowed that. And hockey is an indoor, contact sport that's far more likely to yield spread, IMO.
Toronto's actions here make little sense and lack internal consistency.
Because the plan required consistent traveling across an international border... [Reply]
Originally Posted by dlphg9:
I think the MLB should have done some type of bubble thing for the minor league teams.
Most minor league teams are not even profitable. Taking on a bubble is even more costly and for players some of which make much less than I do. [Reply]