I'd expect him to be in the middle of the top 50. 25-75 range across all the lists.
Baseball America and MLB may have him higher than Prospectus, Fangraphs, and KLaw. BA and MLB favor college players and high picks more than tools and projection. [Reply]
He was pretty heavily linked to the Cards pre-draft and I just wasn't a fan. May become a Hoerner type I guess, but Merrifield was such a bizarre case. He was 25 years old and scuffling until showing some potential in the high minors in his 5th year of organized ball (damn rare for a college bat to even get that kind of rope).
Even then he still stumbled for another year in AAA before getting a look by necessity. Those just aren't guys you compare other guys to - they're outliers.
I'm more inclined to compare guys like him to the Skip Schumakers or Greg Garcia's of the world. Aaron Miles or Joe Thurston. Those sort of dirtbag guys are who you get 9 times out of 10.
That's the type of profile I maybe start to accept in the 3rd round unless we're also looking at a GG caliber glove and I'm not sure I see that in Loftin.
He was certainly a consensus first round guy but I think that's based more on floor than ceiling and I just don't like selecting for floor before round 3. Systems produce guys like that on accident all the time so why plow significant draft capital into one? Even someone like Hoerner will never drive the bus. He'll never be a true key contributor to a real contending team. He may be a glue guy someday but at certain stages in the competitive cycle, you still need to be taking swings at anchor tenants before you start looking for complementary players.
And Loftin looks like a complementary player even if things go to script. [Reply]
Pitching looks awesome. I really hope this group turns out better than the last all-star pitching group, and I think there will. There's simply so much more depth and IMO just as much top end talent as when we had Montgomery, Lamb, Dwyer, etc.
The rest of the rebuild depends on finding something productive among a group of guys including McConnell, Witt Jr, Matias, Lee, Melendez, Isbel, Pratto, Loftin, and probably some other names I'm missing.
I'm curious what's going on with the minor leaguers the rest of this year while they're not playing. Hopefully they're still getting some positive instruction that will lead to positive results? Along with a supposedly revamped development system for the hitters I'm hoping some of these guys can finally realize some potential. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
You're a Loftin fan, eh?
He was pretty heavily linked to the Cards pre-draft and I just wasn't a fan. May become a Hoerner type I guess, but Merrifield was such a bizarre case. He was 25 years old and scuffling until showing some potential in the high minors in his 5th year of organized ball (damn rare for a college bat to even get that kind of rope).
Even then he still stumbled for another year in AAA before getting a look by necessity. Those just aren't guys you compare other guys to - they're outliers.
I'm more inclined to compare guys like him to the Skip Schumakers or Greg Garcia's of the world. Aaron Miles or Joe Thurston. Those sort of dirtbag guys are who you get 9 times out of 10.
That's the type of profile I maybe start to accept in the 3rd round unless we're also looking at a GG caliber glove and I'm not sure I see that in Loftin.
He was certainly a consensus first round guy but I think that's based more on floor than ceiling and I just don't like selecting for floor before round 3. Systems produce guys like that on accident all the time so why plow significant draft capital into one? Even someone like Hoerner will never drive the bus. He'll never be a true key contributor to a real contending team. He may be a glue guy someday but at certain stages in the competitive cycle, you still need to be taking swings at anchor tenants before you start looking for complementary players.
And Loftin looks like a complementary player even if things go to script.
I agree. This is a move a contending team makes who has a hole a needs a fast riser to come in a fill a need quickly, not a move a rebuilding team needs. Even if he becomes Merrifield, the most optimistic scenario, it doesn't move the needle much as we saw this year, and Merrifield is going to age out soon.
I'm surprised people aren't more concerned about team construction as another poster mentioned after the Lacy pick. I'm not going to ever complain about getting the best pitcher in a draft, but for this team it is a big deal. Mondesi can't stay healthy in his career and hasnt made the leap to star. Soler had a good year but can that continue? Merrifield is going to age out soon. And after that...? If whitt Jr doesn't pan out as a super star we are in trouble. People keep saying "well we can just trade pitching for hitting", and that's correct in theory, but it doesn't really work like that. Greinke gets a haul, not the #75 prospect. People aren't acknowledging the fact that outside of Lacy, our guys project as 2/3s in a rotation, not cy young winners. Unless the royals hit on a rotation that looks like maddux/glavine/smoltz, we won't have a bevy of prospects to trade because we have to hope that all of them collectively turn into that for this to work. If we fall even a little short, and it turns out we get a #2, 2 3s, a four, and some solid bullpen guys , which isn't an unbelievable outcome, we are screwed, because then we don't have enough to trade for a bat and the pitching isn't quite good enough to carry us. You're left in no man's land. We need to have some balance in the system and can't put all our eggs into pitching prospects, the riskiest thing you can possibly do, and then take low ceiling high floor guys on offense. It's unlikely to work. I hope I'm wrong obviously, but I just hate the roster construction looking 5 years out. [Reply]
I don’t think I’d call myself a Loftin fanboy but I see the value there. The floor is nice and he does have some upside with the bat. There were a lot of teams connected to him that know what they’re doing with hitters (Yankees, Rockies, Cubs) and saw
Multipl places that thought he would have elevated himself to the middle of the first
round with a full/good college season.
Yeah, he isn’t a likely centerpiece guy, but those guys were off the board at that point.
Personally, I would have rolled the dice with Casey Martin’s upside and am still surprised KC wasn’t in on him there.
Lacy and Hernandez are the picks I like the most, but Loftin is solid. [Reply]
Originally Posted by SithCeNtZ:
I agree. This is a move a contending team makes who has a hole a needs a fast riser to come in a fill a need quickly, not a move a rebuilding team needs. Even if he becomes Merrifield, the most optimistic scenario, it doesn't move the needle much as we saw this year, and Merrifield is going to age out soon.
I'm surprised people aren't more concerned about team construction as another poster mentioned after the Lacy pick. I'm not going to ever complain about getting the best pitcher in a draft, but for this team it is a big deal. Mondesi can't stay healthy in his career and hasnt made the leap to star. Soler had a good year but can that continue? Merrifield is going to age out soon. And after that...? If whitt Jr doesn't pan out as a super star we are in trouble. People keep saying "well we can just trade pitching for hitting", and that's correct in theory, but it doesn't really work like that. Greinke gets a haul, not the #75 prospect. People aren't acknowledging the fact that outside of Lacy, our guys project as 2/3s in a rotation, not cy young winners. Unless the royals hit on a rotation that looks like maddux/glavine/smoltz, we won't have a bevy of prospects to trade because we have to hope that all of them collectively turn into that for this to work. If we fall even a little short, and it turns out we get a #2, 2 3s, a four, and some solid bullpen guys , which isn't an unbelievable outcome, we are screwed, because then we don't have enough to trade for a bat and the pitching isn't quite good enough to carry us. You're left in no man's land. We need to have some balance in the system and can't put all our eggs into pitching prospects, the riskiest thing you can possibly do, and then take low ceiling high floor guys on offense. It's unlikely to work. I hope I'm wrong obviously, but I just hate the roster construction looking 5 years out.
Worrying about roster construction with your minor league system is how you end up taking Christian Colon instead of Chris Sale or Matt Harvey. It shouldn’t be done.
Get the most talent you can and go from there.
High-contact hitters with plus D up the
middle have value. Loftin isn’t a guy they’re trying to build around but he can be a steady lineup contributor who plays the type of D KC covers.
The Royals lack star power/upside on the position player side - Witt, Erick Pena, and Brady McConnell are the only guys with the tools to project to be even potential lineup centerpieces right now - but will get a chance to beef that up next month as well, with the international free agent period.
I’m not sure who they have been connected to for this period, but they will have some money to spend. [Reply]
Losing the minor league season really fucking sucks. This should have been a big year for a lot of guys, but instead they all get a year older with very little experience. Shit man! I was actually really looking forward to the minor league season. [Reply]
Here's part of what Alec Lewis had to say about him in a recent chat on the Athletic: "Models loved him, evidently. A few things that could be about: His ability for the barrel to remain in the zone for a wild amount of time. And the sheer lack of times he swings and misses."
HOW THREE YEARS AT TEXAS A&M TURNED ASA LACY INTO A TOP DRAFT PICK
Levi Weaver
Originally Posted by :
There have been 11* first-round picks in the history of the Texas A&M baseball program. How fitting, then, that the Aggies’ 12th Man should go higher than any of his predecessors. When the Kansas City Royals made Asa Lacy the No. 4 player drafted on Wednesday, the left-handed pitcher surpassed Jeff Granger — taken fifth overall by the Royals in the 1993 draft — for the highest draft position in team history.
While the numbers and scouting reports suggested an early pick for Lacy on Wednesday, the left-handed pitcher maintained that he had not been given any assurances as to which team would be taking him.
“That conversation has not been had with any teams,” the native Texan said via telephone on Sunday. “Granted, I have talked to quite a few teams that are very interested, but a lot of teams are interested in a lot of guys. So everybody’s setting up their board … staying in touch. They want to get to know who they may possibly pick.”
While the official draft position might not have been predestined, it came as no surprise that Lacy was one of the top picks. Our own Keith Law projected Lacy to go third in a mock draft a week ago, while allowing for the possibility that he could be the top overall pick. And here’s what Law had to say about Lacy just last week on his Top 100 prospects Big Board.
“Lacy separated himself from the rest of this year’s very strong college pitching crop in the brief spring season, showing he could hold 93-94 mph deep into games, touching 98 mph, with a plus changeup and above-average slider. Lacy’s got a great starter’s build and his delivery works, with a big step-over stride and good timing. He works well to both sides of the plate, although his command and control are still inconsistent; the ability to reach back for 97-98 mph is great, but his stuff is good enough that he could just hold 92-93 mph all game and probably throw better strikes. If he’d had a full spring, and kept this up, more people would likely see him as a candidate to go 1-1. If there’s a future No. 1 starter in the class, I think it’s him.”
That high-90s velocity is a symptom of hard work, to be sure, but Lacy says the impetus arrived in the form of a rude awakening when he first got to Texas A&M three years ago. He had been a highly recruited high school prospect, going 13-1 with an ERA of 0.93 in his senior year at Tivy High School in Kerrville, striking out 128 hitters in his 97 1/3 innings of work and winning the MVP award for District 26 (5A).
That’s the sort of season that will earn you a few conversations with scouts.
“The Padres offered me their third pick in the third round, which was $725,000,” says Lacy. “(That) was just not going to do it for me; it wasn’t (where) I valued my experience at Texas A&M.”
As Lacy flew home from the Padres’ pre-draft workout, he got a call from Cleveland scout Kyle Van Hook. The scout had built a good relationship with Asa and his family through the scouting process, and Van Hook informed the pitcher that the team would be “wasting” a 31st-round courtesy pick on Lacy. There would be no signing of a contract, but it allowed the scout to take the family out for dinner.
With professional baseball now on hold, the native Texan settled back in where he was born: a little over three hours east of Kerrville. He enrolled at Texas A&M University, the alma mater of a number of relatives, including his grandfather, uncle, and aunt.
You might not see it if you look at the numbers (3-1, 2.75 ERA, 48 strikeouts and 17 walks in 39 1/3 innings, mostly in relief) but Lacy says the transition from high school to his first college season was difficult for him.
“I had put on some good weight (but) was struggling learning how to use it on the mound,” he says now. “I was kind of all over the place. Velocity was still OK for me at the time — high 80s, low 90s — (but) I was getting hit around when I did throw strikes. I was struggling with a cutter/slider at the time that coach (Rob) Childress was wanting me to throw (and) I lost my curveball. So a lot of things really weren’t going well from the pitching side of things.”
The physical work had rewarded his 6-foot-4 frame with new added “good weight” in the form of muscle, but while the numbers cast doubt on the pitcher’s claim that he was “getting hit around,” the walks were an indication that his control needed refining — an issue that remains perhaps the sole source of concern for scouts.
After his freshman year, Lacy says he reached a turning point by engaging his mind, researching how to best put that new muscle weight to work for him.
“I was not using my legs very efficiently, so it was essentially just wasted strength at that point,” he says. “I was OK with my arm action, (but) I decided that if I wanted to throw harder — which was kind of the whole goal — I needed to really emphasize the way I used my legs, especially on the mound.”
Lacy went to work in the offseason with Brent Pourciau, who runs a program called Top Velocity in Covington, La. Lacy says Pourciau’s program helped him learn to properly use his legs.
“Once I got my legs working like I needed to, the upper body was still kind of out of sync,” Lacy says. “Luckily for me, I had attended the Texas Baseball Ranch for almost five years, so I had a very good understanding of how the arm path works. All I had to do was time it up. So for me, that was a lot of med ball throws, a lot of lighter connection ball throws with weighted balls … once everything timed up, that’s when the velocity — it came slowly, but that’s when it started coming.”
That velocity ticked up a couple of miles per hour for Lacy’s sophomore year, when he moved into the starting rotation and went 8-4 with a 2.13 ERA in 15 starts, striking out 130 hitters and walking 43 in 88 2/3 innings, and stayed there later that summer when he played for the Team USA Baseball Collegiate National Team.
It ticked up again this season, when Lacy went full sicko mode on opponents, sporting a pristine 3-0 record with an 0.75 ERA in four starts, striking out 46 hitters in 24 innings before the season was lost to the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, he walked just eight hitters.
For what it’s worth, Lacy thinks there might be more velocity in the tank.
“I didn’t even really gain any weight from last season to this season,” he notes. “I’m still not even close to being a grown man, but you get that grown-man strength, and I could certainly see a little bit of that coming when I go back and watch video. For me, it’s focusing on timing this year, timing everything up … I think after a full pro season and maybe another year, I think I can comfortably pitch somewhere from 95-100. I’m more in the 93-96 range (now), touching 7s and 8s every start. But I think I can comfortably pitch a little higher than that. I think that there’s definitely more in there.”
Oh, by the way, the slider he was learning his freshman year? It’s filthy now. Add it to an above-average changeup and curveball, and the ability to reach back for 98 mph, and it’s no surprise he’s getting more than a free meal this time around.
The comps have come in droves. Blake Snell, Alex Wood, there is no shortage of left-handed pitchers, and Lacy says he disagrees with most of them — “I think I’m me,” he concludes — but understands why the comparisons exist.
“I think the industry standards — with the hip-to-shoulder separation, back-leg extension, front-leg extension — I think no matter who you are, if you can get into those positions, you’re going to start seeing yourself compared more with major leaguers, because that’s why they’re there, because they do those things.”
But there is one left-handed comp that Lacy doesn’t completely shrug off. How about three-time NL Cy Young Award winner, 2014 NL MVP and fellow Texan Clayton Kershaw?
“I think he’s an amazing pitcher, and an even better husband and father and student of the game, everything he does with his charity work,” Lacy begins, before admitting that, fine, there might be some similarities. “We’ve got different arm slots, but I did see a video the other day where we get into the same positions; we just do it differently. So if you take screenshots down the mound, you actually see ‘Wow that actually looks very similar.’ So that’s kind of cool.”
Lacy spent the spring working out at a local gym and using his high school’s field to maintain his throwing program. He says that while the pandemic has obliterated the NCAA season, his workout routine hasn’t changed much at all.
Now he’ll report to Royals as they hope to make him a centerpiece of the rebuild.
*It’s only 11 if you count Doug Rau’s selection in the 1970 June secondary phase draft. I did, because I did not want to waste a perfectly good 12th Man reference in the lede.
To circle back to position players, beyond the guys with true star potential you do have some guys who profile as potential above-average players, notably Kyle Isbel and Khalil Lee. [Reply]
Yeah it looks like these negotiations to start the season are getting even more ugly, if that's possible. Players basically told the owners they're done, tell us how many games you want to play and we'll be there.
Meanwhile, MLB signed a $3 billion deal today with TBS to broadcast one game a week plus 3 playoff series.
#BREAKING from @Ourand_SBJ: @MLB & Turner Sports have agreed to a massive rights renewal through 2028, which will see Turner pay the league about $470 million per year. Full details on the new deal ⬇️