Originally Posted by duncan_idaho:
I mean, I was going to be happy if one of Martin/Lacy fell to them. The fact both did is just crazy.
Can’t go wrong either way. Lacy has true No. 1 potential as a LHP with a plus fastball, one plus and one above average breaker and above average change.
There ARE some questions about how Martin’s power transfers, and he isn’t a plus runner. I think he would have been the pick of the Marlins take Lacy.
Originally Posted by :
By his junior year, Lacy had adjusted his fastball release position by moving 8.3 inches towards the 3rd base side of the rubber and becoming slightly more over the top (release height rose by 1.4 inches over the same time period).
This adjustment had promising returns, as the tilt on his fastball climbed from 10:56 to 11:21 and the vertical break dramatically increased by 4 inches over the years, going from 16.7 inches to 21.7 inches.
Lacy’s newly improved fastball would place him in the 99th percentile among Major League pitchers in terms of vertical movement, joining the company of elite big league fastballs such as Colin Poche, Justin Verlander and James Karinchak.
--
While we believe that Lacy’s slider may be a bit further along than his changeup, we still see a pitch of quality given that it has maintained a 10:44 tilt with 14.5 inches of vertical movement and -10.9 inches of horizontal movement despite the uptick in release slot.
In fact, regardless of the season, Lacy’s CH has typically sat 8 mph slower and had about 7 inches in vertical separation off of the fastball, roughly MLB average in both categories.
While this pitch may not stand out in terms of devastating arm side fade, it plays up tremendously because it is paired with an elite fastball.
--
The separation that Lacy’s SL achieves off of his fastball has remained about the same (close to a differential of 18 inches vertically), giving the pitch a similar amount of depth despite the uptick in velocity.
Overall, the development of this pitch over the past two seasons has given Lacy another swing and miss offering that is thrown hard and projects to be plus at the highest level.
--
To complement the three other offerings, Lacy has also recently integrated a curveball into his pitch mix, giving him a full starting pitcher’s arsenal heading into the draft.
Although the spin rate on the newly featured pitch is roughly 400rpms below MLB average, the initial feel he has demonstrated for the pitch gives us excitement moving forward, given that it is thrown about 15 mph off his fastball and at 70% spin efficiency with predominantly topspin.
The vertical break on the CB (-14.6 inches) is already well above average and would rank in the 74th percentile of all MLB curveballs today.
Originally Posted by Al Bundy:
I like the Lacy pick. Stock the system with high end arms, and if you need to trade 1 or 2, you have them for a run.
Royals need to tank this season.
One of the more favorable win projections for the 2020 season has the KC Royals winning the fifth lowest total in 2020, if that happens there are two Vanderbilt pitchers who could be joining them in 2021.
The 2021 MLB amateur draft may contain two of the best and most polished pitching prospects the game has seen this century. Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter both starting pitchers at the Vanderbilt University are quickly making names for themselves as possible can’t miss pitching prospects.
If you are the Kansas City Royals front office and the 2020 season is a complete farce, who would you select with the first overall draft choice?
Originally Posted by :
Kumar Rocker – Starting Pitcher (will be 21-years-old for June 2021 draft)
Kumar Rocker checks in at a physically imposing 6’5”, 255 lbs. There’s not much left to project in terms of physical maturation with Rocker as his body appears to be maxed out with development. He’s headlining a stacked pitching rotation at the reigning NCAA national champions Vanderbilt University. If he continues his outstanding performance, he’ll continue gain helium as a potential game changing talent.
During the Super Regionals in 2019, Rocker put on a show, recording the first ever no-hitter in Super Regional play during the NCAA tournament history. Rocker struck out 19 batters in his no-hit performance in the Super Regional against Duke University, one night after Duke exploded for 18 runs against Vanderbilt.
Rocker features a solid three pitch mix with his plus fastball and plus slider leading the way. His fastball tops out around 98-mph, typically sitting around 92-95 mph with sinker movement. His slider flashes potential plus-plus action with horizontal and vertical movement.
His change-up is still developing and figures to be an above-average offering (with nice downward fade movement). His command is further along at this point in his development nearly at its projected future value.
Rocker’s ability to command his fastball and slider to all parts of the zone give him a high floor as a pitching prospect. How well he develops a third pitch will determine if he will be a number one/two type starter in the long-run.
Rocker’s fastball tends to lose its sinking movement when he gets late into his starts or his mechanics are off. If he’s able to be more consistent with his endurance, command, movement, and velocity he’s a potential Ace type pitcher.
Kumar Rocker has a solid floor as a mid-rotation stater or high leverage reliever.
Jack Leiter – Starting Pitcher (will be 21-years-old for June 2021 draft)
Jack Leiter is a 6’0”, 195 pound freshman starting pitcher who is forcing his way into the extraordinary weekend starting pitching rotation for reigning NCAA national champions Vanderbilt University.
Leiter is the son of 19-year, former MLB starter Al Leiter who won 162 games, two World Series titles (1993 Toronto Blue Jays and 1997 Florida Marlins), and generated 36.5 WAR in his career. Jack Leiter was one of the hardest to sign high school pitching prospects during the 2019 MLB amateur draft and fell to the 20th round when it was understood he couldn’t be bought out of his commitment to attend Vanderbilt University.
In his first start for the Vanderbilt Commodores, Leiter displayed the talent that excited scouts during his senior year in high school. In Leiter’s debut, he threw five no-hit innings, striking out 12 out of 16 batters faced. Leiter’s second start for Vanderbilt wasn’t much worse when he pitched five innings, allowing only one hit and striking out four.
Vanderbilt’s weekend pitching rotation is already loaded with Kumar Rocker headlining the group, but Leiter’s talent is pushing Vanderbilt’s coaching staff to promote him into a more prominent role moving forward in the season. There’s no doubt we will see more of Leiter as Vanderbilt is built to make another NCAA championship run.
Leiter has the talent to command four potential above-average pitches, with a plus-plus curveball, above-average fastball, and above-average slider leading the way. His fastball tops out around 98-mph, typically sitting around 91-94 mph with high RPMs allowing him to be very effective elevating in the zone.
His curveball is absolutely nasty and has plus-plus potential with his favorable spin axis and dramatic vertical movement. He throws an above-average slider around 85-mph that has plus potential with horizonal/vertical movement. His change-up figures to be an average offering (downward movement) and could be something more once he finds more confidence in the pitch.
His command can be inconsistent at this point in his development, as Leiter has a controlled, full-body delivery with a cross body release. Leiter is very athletic and he’ll continue to develop better command over time, but the delivery takes a lot of effort.
Leiter has more projectable potential as starter with the potential of being a future Ace type pitcher if he develops a consistent change-up. His mechanics require a great deal of athleticism and as long as he continues his physical maturation, he should be able to achieve his potential.
HS OF Pete Crow-Armstrong (if he falls)
Auburn RHP Tanner Burns
Arkansas SS Casey Martin (toolsy guy, falls into the Witt-McConnell space)
HS 3B Jared Walker (highest upside power prospect)
HS C Drew Romo (going to require $$) [Reply]