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The Dumbass Lounge>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
Monticore 11:05 AM 06-23-2020
Originally Posted by Bob Dole:
We have 2 hospitals and probably 15 nursing homes. I haven’t seen how many of the 12 were residents.
Our death was 44 year old women, homes had 2 cases total we got luck so far .
[Reply]
Eleazar 11:08 AM 06-23-2020
Originally Posted by DaFace:
At its core, the issue I have is just the feeling of anti-intellectualism that "sources" like this promote. It's like that study I posted a while back where a bunch of chemists concluded that masks were super effective. They even got it published, but when the epidemiologists took a look at it, they immediately could see all of the flaws in the chemists' thinking (even if they didn't disagree with the basic premise that masks are effective).

Same deal here. I don't know who this guy is or what his qualifications are, but he seems to be taking some very complex topics, making up his own methodologies, and presenting them as indisputable fact.

My personal view on all of this is the same as it's been from the beginning: I trust the people who have spent decades of their lives trying to understand this stuff far more than people with no expertise and a calculator. That DOES NOT mean that the experts are infallible, but the chances that they'll be right are far higher than those with no expertise.

At some point, it's just an odds game. If you had to place money on the Chiefs or Dolphins winning the Super Bowl next year, who's your choice? This guy strikes me as the Bleacher Report blogger posting a hot take that the Dolphins will win it.
I can appreciate that perspective. And like I alluded to before, I posted a few of that guy's tweets here because I thought people would be interested and also to hear what other people have to say about it.

I'm not a believer or disbeliever in it at this point. Believe me, when I post something and posters like pete latch onto it while generally smart people like cdcox and hamas are skeptical, it carries weight with me. The opinions of posters who are dumb or are just poop-slingers here I couldn't care less about, but people like those guys who have substantive objections post opinions that I value.

That being said, I have always tried to play within the rules here and also within the boundaries of what people I respect here consider to be acceptable behavior. If it seems this is unwanted or derailing to the thread I don't want to bring that. Everyone knows where to find and follow this person if they are interested in hearing that perspective.
[Reply]
BleedingRed 11:10 AM 06-23-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
I would imagine that LBJ ICU normal percentage is not 107%

Do you have data to show that's incorrect?

I'm sorry if numbers and facts bother you.
Your ignorance of how many Hospitals Houston has and how SMALL LBJ is in comparison to the other Hospitals is showing.

Best not to comment further.
[Reply]
Donger 11:14 AM 06-23-2020
Originally Posted by BleedingRed:
Your ignorance of how many Hospitals Houston has and how SMALL LBJ is in comparison to the other Hospitals is showing.

Best not to comment further.
You asked. Are you saying that LBJ ICU capacity is normally 107%?
[Reply]
BleedingRed 11:20 AM 06-23-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
You asked. Are you saying that LBJ ICU capacity is normally 107%?
Are you saying COVID19 makes up 107%?
[Reply]
Bob Dole 11:22 AM 06-23-2020
Originally Posted by Monticore:
Our death was 44 year old women, homes had 2 cases total we got luck so far .
Just found that 11 of the deaths were 70+.
[Reply]
Donger 11:22 AM 06-23-2020
Originally Posted by BleedingRed:
Are you saying COVID19 makes up 107%?
No.
[Reply]
BleedingRed 11:26 AM 06-23-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
No.
What percentage does COVID19 make u of that 107% then? What is your estimation?

Hint: This Hospital is smack dab in the middle of the ghetto.
[Reply]
Donger 11:28 AM 06-23-2020
Originally Posted by BleedingRed:
What percentage does COVID19 make u of that 107% then? What is your estimation?

Hint: This Hospital is smack dab in the middle of the ghetto.
I don't know. You asked about present capacity to normal.

I pointed out that I doubt normal capacity is 107% and if you think it is. You are now dancing around not answering that question.

Think next time before you chime in, okay?
[Reply]
Bob Dole 11:28 AM 06-23-2020
Originally Posted by BleedingRed:
Are you saying COVID19 makes up 107%?
LBJ is licenses for 207 total beds. If 25% are ICU (which is unlikely), you can do the math on 107%.

That’s why I hate reports that deal in percentages. You can skew perception. “Our early registration number are up 100%!” Yeah... from 2 to 4.
[Reply]
BleedingRed 11:30 AM 06-23-2020
Originally Posted by Bob Dole:
LBJ is licenses for 207 total beds. If 25% are ICU (which is unlikely), you can do the math on 107%.

That’s why I hate reports that deal in percentages. You can skew perception. “Our early registration number are up 100%!” Yeah... from 2 to 4.
Oh I know,

It's a TINY hospital, in the middle of the Ghetto of Houston. I'm just trying to walk Donger through his stupidity.


"107% O noes!"
[Reply]
Donger 11:31 AM 06-23-2020
Originally Posted by BleedingRed:
Oh I know,

It's a TINY hospital, in the middle of the Ghetto of Houston. I'm just trying to walk Donger through his stupidity.


"107% O noes!"
That's the second time you've mentioned "ghetto." How come?
[Reply]
Donger 11:32 AM 06-23-2020
Originally Posted by Bob Dole:
LBJ is licenses for 207 total beds. If 25% are ICU (which is unlikely), you can do the math on 107%.

That’s why I hate reports that deal in percentages. You can skew perception. “Our early registration number are up 100%!” Yeah... from 2 to 4.
Not a big per capita guy, eh?
[Reply]
Eleazar 11:32 AM 06-23-2020
Is there any information available at this point about tracing? Where are these people in TX getting it, what is their living situation, are they reliant on public transit, etc
[Reply]
Bearcat 11:32 AM 06-23-2020
Originally Posted by BleedingRed:
Your ignorance of how many Hospitals Houston has and how SMALL LBJ is in comparison to the other Hospitals is showing.

Best not to comment further.
The first article that I clicked on said those hospitals are typically pretty full, so that answered that for me.... but, there are so many other variables as well.

Originally Posted by :
Both hospitals are almost always full but are now treating about 20 percent of their patients for COVID-19.
https://abc13.com/houston-icu-capaci...pital/6201846/

...if we say they're usually around 100% anyway, then based on that line they're apparently turning away 20% of non-Covid patients right now. That could mean life or death for the worst cases out there, but of course patients being rerouted isn't terribly uncommon.

I don't know what the average ICU stay is for a Covid patient versus an average ICU patient... I could see ramifications from that if it's significantly longer.... then you're turning away that percentage (and possibly greater percentages in the future) of patients for even longer, which could cause issues at other hospitals that are dealing with the same issues.

I doubt they're generally over capacity, or else that would be their actual capacity? Obviously, I don't know for sure, but I assume they've been asked to expand their number of beds, which also puts strains on supplies and people.

That's just off the top of my head as a non-healthcare person posting on a football message board....

None of that seems hair-on-fire to me, but then again, things have changed drastically in a short period of time (2-4 weeks) in other areas, so I could see why people in general and especially people in the healthcare industry would be concerned..... it doesn't necessarily mean they're fear mongering fear porn hysterical about it, but hospitals in particular have to constantly prepare for worst case scenarios on a patient-by-patient basis, and they're now having to do so on a unit-by-unit/building-by-building/county-by-county basis.

And perhaps thanks to the media and people spending hours upon hours entrenched in their opinion, it gets skewed as WE'RE ALL FUCKED!!!.... when those people would just really appreciate it if people wore masks, stayed the hell away from each other at a distance of 6 feet or so, and washed their hands (and of course, there are those who think the world is actually fucked).
[Reply]
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