The Cardinals have genuine depth in their staff and 150 innings of Reyes would've been nice, but he was going to be on an innings limit anyway. This changes their ceiling more than it changes their 'likely scenario). I'd say they had a 92 win ceiling that's more likely 88 at this point, but their 'likely' 85 wins changes by maybe a win or two.
Where this will really hurt is next season when he could've been ready to step up to 180+ innings and really take the reigns from Wainwright at the top of the rotation. Now that entire timetable is set back another year (while still costing a year of control).
It's time to get to work on the 2020 plan and build towards that. Maybe 2019 if you're a little more optimistic.
The Cardinals need to make a hard push for Luis Robert (ro-BAIR), IMO. He'd immediately be a top 5 prospect in the system and if nothing else just create another tradeable asset to fill a slew of holes that are opening throughout the organization. They can never undo the fact that they were a day late and a dollar short on the Cuban imports (Moncada still chaps my ass), but they can at least take one last stab at Robert before the international signing rules change up again. [Reply]
There's definitely a lot of that 'barely restrained violence' in his game that you saw in Puig but at the same time, I see some of the elongated swings that I saw with Soler and Tavares.
There are times when I see serious batspeed but then he also loses his mechanics in there several times and ends up casting it something awful. I wonder if that explains some of the more mediocre numbers and slightly elevated strikeouts. There's some explosion in his wrists but you don't see it quite often enough.
Interesting prospect that is probably worth about 1/5th of the money he'll command on the open market but that's the price DeWitt's gonna have to pay to deal with this Correa nonsense. Robert would probably be a 1st round or at least high 2nd round talent if in the Rule 4 draft so if you can just throw some money at acquiring him, you've done a little to make up for the loss of those picks. Moreover, as the Cards have already torched their bonus pool for '16/'17, there's no additional penalties associated with signing.
It's nothing more than another summer home for BDW - he should probably suck it up and authorize the signing. Loria's purported sale has pegged his franchise's value in the $1.5-2 billion dollar range on a franchise he acquired for virtually nothing (before turning the best operating profits in baseball for the last several years) - he can afford to splurge a bit. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Over/under on how long it takes to actually have the surgery done? Anyone wanna bet that we prescribe 'rest and rehab' then shut him down for good in August so that he ends up missing 2 seasons instead of one?
Kevin Siegrist skipped his throwing session today with 'shoulder tightness'.
The only think worse than hearing 'forearm stiffnes' is hearing 'shoulder tightness' because if it's a shoulder, he's just flat done. There's very little coming back from that.
Better hope it's just first week aches because this team wasn't that good when it was healthy. [Reply]
Originally Posted by :
Personally, I don't care for the reports that he's touching 101 on occasion because that tells me that he's overloading his shoulder to add 2-3 mph of velocity, but if it's the kind of thing he's only doing 2 or 3 times/game, I can live with it.
Too many guys go out there in the minors and start shoulder loading on every pitch. It adds velocity but it will absolutely wreck their arms. If I see Reyes cruising at 99, I'll worry quite a bit about his long-term health because he was sitting at 95-97 a year ago. Sure, sometimes maturation adds a little, but that's a rare bird for a guy that was already built like a 27 yr old (as Reyes was). If he's finding extra velocity, that tells me he's scapula loading to get it and it doesn't speak well to his long-term prognosis.
That's exactly what was happening. Over the last 2 years he's coiled that arm more and more in a search for added velocity. Sure as shit, it blew out the elbow.
Man I hope this isn't going to turn into another Cardinals developmental failure over the last 3-4 years. The kid was plenty dynamic in the mid-90s but they let him keep dragging that arm because they fell in love with the radar readings. That's a pretty monumental cock-up and now they'll have to try to fix it. [Reply]
Originally Posted by raybec 4:
The good thing is he had the surgery already and they said it was "successful". At least they didn't dick around this time.
But when he comes back from it, anything less than throwing 100 mph will be considered a failure. The problem is that if he comes back throwing 100, he'll STILL be overloading his pitching arm.
The kid needs to get back down to 95 and he needs to rediscover his curveball. This arm injury doesn't just cost him a year of development, it establishes that his last 2 years of development were WRONG. And that the organization would almost certainly be well served to take two steps back with him. It may mean we lost a year of pitching and ANOTHER year of him re-learning how to throw with different stuff designed to improve his durability.
This was a huge mistake, IMO. It irritates me to no end that they allowed an immature kid (or perhaps even encouraged) to go out there lighting up radar guns when anyone with even a passing understanding of pitching mechanics knows that you're playing with fire.
'Passing understanding' is exactly what I'd consider my grasp on pitchers and yet I recognized the potential for trouble when he was still in High A; where the fuck were our pitching coaches? [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
But when he comes back from it, anything less than throwing 100 mph will be considered a failure. The problem is that if he comes back throwing 100, he'll STILL be overloading his pitching arm.
The kid needs to get back down to 95 and he needs to rediscover his curveball. This arm injury doesn't just cost him a year of development, it establishes that his last 2 years of development were WRONG. And that the organization would almost certainly be well served to take two steps back with him. It may mean we lost a year of pitching and ANOTHER year of him re-learning how to throw with different stuff designed to improve his durability.
This was a huge mistake, IMO. It irritates me to no end that they allowed an immature kid (or perhaps even encouraged) to go out there lighting up radar guns when anyone with even a passing understanding of pitching mechanics knows that you're playing with fire.
'Passing understanding' is exactly what I'd consider my grasp on pitchers and yet I recognized the potential for trouble when he was still in High A; where the **** were our pitching coaches?
I just don't get the love for the radar gun. 95 with good movement paired with and 86 change or curve is more than good enough. [Reply]
I feel like, at this point, TJ is just something every pitcher is going to have to endure, especially flamethrowers. It is what it is ... sucks for Reyes but he'll be fine and as good as ever in 2018 1/2. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Romosexual:
I feel like, at this point, TJ is just something every pitcher is going to have to endure, especially flamethrowers. It is what it is ... sucks for Reyes but he'll be fine and as good as ever in 2018 1/2.
Sure, more and more pitchers are undergoing TJ but I also think that's in large part because we've figured out how to create velocity.
It's not like pure nutrition or strength programs are to credit for a league-wide explosion in velocity. We have more and more coaches that are teaching guys to scapula load and hang that arm back. We have more guys, especially fringier prospects, being taught to let it all hang out to get attention.
And for guys that may not have made it, it may be a good thing. Get that extra 3-4 MPH and a little more tilt on your slider and you'll have a 3-4 year career before your arm gives out. If you're lucky, you fix it and have another 4-5 years maybe even a FA payday along the way.
But with a guy like Alex Reyes that had the ability to maintain far safer mechanics, cruise at 94-95 and work with a breaking ball that was different than a slider but arguably as effective, there's just no need at all to have done that.
TJ surgery isn't on the increase by accident; guys are being taught much more dangerous mechanics. For many, it's the only shot they have at actually making it but for some, they're just pushing it too far into the red for no cause.
The odds suggest that Reyes can come back and throw 98-100 again but my point is that if he does, we'll find ourselves right back in this spot in a few years. And if it isn't with an elbow tear, it will be with something like his prior sprain or his his shoulder soreness last year. For his long term health, they need to get his legs back as his primary source of power and doing so may cost him a little velocity and a little command, especially as he sorts it out.
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
As irritating was Matt Adams is, he's at least a lefty with pop who is slightly better than replacement level.
Is he starting to take baseball seriously now? Was scrolling through some videos on mlb's website and saw a clip of one of his HRs. He looks pretty slimmed down. [Reply]
Originally Posted by jd1020:
Is he starting to take baseball seriously now? Was scrolling through some videos on mlb's website and saw a clip of one of his HRs. He looks pretty slimmed down.
I saw him in spring training, and he is slimmed down a lot. He had been struggling a bit hitting because he tweaked his swing this offseason, but I think things are picking up. He nailed his 1st homerun when we were there and I think he has a few since then.