lol at thinking we're anywhere near the bottom.
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I know but it's impossible to time so I'm good if the stocks I just bought go down that's when I'll add to those holdings. I can see a scenario where as warmer weather comes on the virus subsides and then as it becomes clear that Trump is going to be re-elected the market will run all the way back up to where it was and then pop 30,000 ….
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Curious where you guys feel the bottom is for the S&P and when?
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I'm sure I'm missing something here, but correct my logic. Let's say that this has a mortality rate of 1 percent or 3 percent or 6 percent. Isn't the long-term impact on the economy 1 or 3 or 6 percent? And we're down 20 percent in the market now?
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About 40% below what the S&P is currently marked at.
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you're a fucking dumbass
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Literally studied the market in the process of earning a master's degree.


So no. No I'm not.
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The market highs were built on optimistic models of future growth without disruption, imo.

More importantly, the market prices in anticipated future growth, and the factors are multiplicative over time. You would have to develop models assuming the loss of 1-3% production and consumption, plus the loss of production from quarantines and sick workers. Net present value of cash flows are drastically reduced given supply chain disruption, changes in consumer behavior and reduced growth forecasts. What is the difference in the net present value of an investment with an 8% return and a 5% return, all other things equal? Then factor in changes to profit margin, reduced volume due to supply chain reduction? It also makes overhead a much bigger deal, turning profitable companies unprofitable.

The multiplicative nature of the factors leaves a lot of room for downward movement, Imo. But I am a pessimist by nature, so maybe factor that into your decision making process.
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I have to stop checking my Robinhood account. It only goes up when I'm not looking at it.
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Fuck Chipotle. I boycotted those fools after they went organic/all natural what the fuck ever.
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You basing that on technicals? Fibonacci? Elliot wave? Wat makes you think that?
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discuss thinks the market is his dick

it never goes up
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Technical analysis is the modern day equivalent of reading tea leaves.
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I think the bottom will be around the last week of this month or early April.

Depending on the effect it has here, I think it’s fair to say the drop will be around 30-35%
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I think it will be another 20-25% from current levels.
What Dr. Fauci said today puts us in uncharted waters so who knows.
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