Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Myself and others have talked about the majority of deaths from this virus for people on a ventilator are caused by ARDS. For the layman, extreme inflammation of the lungs make it difficult to use a ventilator on the patient because its like pushing concrete apart to get a breath into the patient.
People die from ARDS for a lot of reasons. But, almost every time before the tipping point into ARDS, there is at least phlegm in the lungs. It doesn't get out of the lungs and pneumonia develops in the lungs. Sets off a chain of events and you develop ARDS which in turn sets off a lot more cascading events that are all bad.
Here's the deal, in the coronavirus when the patient presents to a Dr., hospital etc. there is no phlegm being coughed up for days. No green or yellow phlegm that would created by pneumonia.
They have a dry cough. There is no phlegm. This makes no sense. These people dying within 48-72 hours of admission to a hospital. Pneumonia doesn't send the patient down that path of those bad cascading events into ARDS and death that quickly. There is "something" unique about this virus that we just don't know yet. We discover the why, we can better battle this when it reemerges again. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Chief Pagan:
I imagine the density of NYC factors into it, but it isn’t that simple. San Francisco has the next highest density. It was an early hot spot but got things under control without overwhelming hospitals.
New Orleans has been hit hard.
Albany Georgia is one of the worse spots per capita. That is not exactly a dense metropolis.
SF got things under control because they shut down weeks before New York. They are proof that early and firm distancing measures is the best approach to managing this disease. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
I have never one time said "its just the flu". Take your dumbass somewhere else. And what I said had no politics.
ORLY?
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
10,000 max? I mean if that's the case the shutdown is a huge mistake.
I honestly cant come up with a justification for this craziness when you look at how fast H1N1 spread and we didn't come close to doing this to our country.
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
If we had 1MM cases of H1N1 on day 72 of the outbreak and we didn't shut the country down, and you are saying the only reason we don't have that many positives right now in the US is because of testing, how do you justify the difference?
If we have 1MM current cases then the mortality rate is in alignment with H1N1.
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
I hope that argument is correct but if it is that means close to a million people have the virus so its not even remotely as lethal as we think.
No matter how you slice it it looks like shutting the country down is very questionable when compared to H1N1.
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
Can someone explain this to me because I am honestly at a loss on this.
H1N1 first case was April 15th 2009, day 72 was June 26th and there were 1MM known cases in the US.
This is day 72 of Covid 19 and we are around 10,000 know n cases. This cant be THAt much lower just due to lack of testing can it?
The numbers were are being fed don't add up to a lockdown. It just doesn't.
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
How is Covid-19 more contagious than H1N1 if 975,000 more people had H1N1 in the same timeframe from the start of the outbreak to day 72?
Explain that.
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
I disagree. By your own theoretical numbers we won't have near 16,000 deaths nor would we without the lock down which is what H1N1 had.
Also by your numbers its not as contagious as I easily pointed out.
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
You think 12,000 people are going to die in4-6 weeks? We are already 3 months into this at 345.
H1N1 was killing younger working age people and kids.
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
True we won't likely get to 12,000 deaths in the first 12 months of China Flu like we did H1N1.
Originally Posted by DaFace:
Yep. Either way, though, his H1N1 comparisons are clearly just as far off as any "flu" comparisons would be.
H1N1 was said to be 16x more lethal than influenza so you can keep moving the goalpost all you want, it's not arguing semantics, I never called this "just the flu" and Hamas just proved it. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Mecca:
Man totally did not see that coming at all....
Its not semantics through Mecca and you know it, unless you are implying H1N1 was "just the flu".
Tell me was H1N1 just the flu, yes or no?
You guys just hate to be wrong, I get it. I have been wrong many times on this topic and have no problem admitting it.
You Guys just have to cling to the narrative anyone who questions whether this has all been absolutely necessary and handled correctly couldn't possibly be correct. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
Its not semantics through Mecca and you know it, unless you are implying H1N1 was "just the flu".
Tell me was H1N1 just the flu, yes or no?
You guys just hate to be wrong, I get it. I have been wrong many times on this topic and have no problem admitting it.
You Guys just have to cling to the narrative anyone who questions whether this has all been absolutely necessary and handled correctly couldn't possibly be correct.
Have you argued that COVID-19 will result in no more deaths than a severe seasonal flu, and therefore the mitigation efforts enacted should not have been? [Reply]
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
Its not semantics through Mecca and you know it, unless you are implying H1N1 was "just the flu".
Tell me was H1N1 just the flu, yes or no?
You guys just hate to be wrong, I get it. I have been wrong many times on this topic and have no problem admitting it.
You Guys just have to cling to the narrative anyone who questions whether this has all been absolutely necessary and handled correctly couldn't possibly be correct.
It is semantics, you've spent weeks talking about how this entire thing is a giant pile of bullshit. What you are doing would be like if my kid never put in effort in his history class and I said to him, we all know you think this class is a joke, and he responded by saying oh hey now I never said that.
It's a semantics game, you know this, I know this, everyone else posting knows this. [Reply]
