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The Dumbass Lounge>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
O.city 02:39 PM 04-20-2020
I feel like the "double the testing numbers stuff" is just lip service.
[Reply]
TLO 02:39 PM 04-20-2020
Originally Posted by Pants:
Do different strains require different antibodies? How does that work?
We don't even know for sure if having antibodies protects you from the strain you already had. Dr. Fauci has said "that's a reasonable assumption to make", but nobody actually knows.
[Reply]
O.city 02:41 PM 04-20-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
We don't even know for sure if having antibodies protects you from the strain you already had. Dr. Fauci has said "that's a reasonable assumption to make", but nobody actually knows.
If it didn't, with how infectious this supposedly is we'd have alot more sick again already.

I don't think i'd really be concerned with that.
[Reply]
TLO 02:41 PM 04-20-2020
Originally Posted by O.city:
I feel like the "double the testing numbers stuff" is just lip service.
The more I listen to him, the more I dislike him. I distinctly remember them saying they'd be doing 10,000 tests a day by April 1st. That obviously didn't work out. Maybe he misspoke. Maybe he's just as lost as all of us. Who knows.
[Reply]
Marcellus 02:41 PM 04-20-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
This feels like a giant cluster ****. We're going to "double our testing capacity here in Mizzoura" according to the governer. At which time we're going to see a ton more positive cases, (one would assume).

But hey we're gonna open up on May 4th! Never mind the fact we're probably gonna have to close everything down again because the number of positive cases are going to skyrocket.

****
Take a deep breath dude, by your own logic there is no reason to be alarmed in a spike in new cases if that happens.
[Reply]
O.city 02:43 PM 04-20-2020
If testing shows that there's more cases out there, that wouldn't be ideal. But i guess you could say they're out there now and the hospitals aren't over run.
[Reply]
TLO 02:43 PM 04-20-2020
Originally Posted by O.city:
If it didn't, with how infectious this supposedly is we'd have alot more sick again already.

I don't think i'd really be concerned with that.
Healthcare workers who have been infected and then return to work would seem to be a logical place to look.
[Reply]
O.city 02:44 PM 04-20-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
Healthcare workers who have been infected and then return to work would seem to be a logical place to look.
It really goes against every other virus we've seen in the past. Like i said, it would be pretty shocking.
[Reply]
TLO 02:47 PM 04-20-2020
Originally Posted by O.city:
It really goes against every other virus we've seen in the past. Like i said, it would be pretty shocking.
I ultimately agree. But this virus has thrown us some crazy twists and turns already.
[Reply]
TLO 02:49 PM 04-20-2020
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
Take a deep breath dude, by your own logic there is no reason to be alarmed in a spike in new cases if that happens.
I personally don't know how alarmed I'll be by it, but I worry government officials will be alarmed by it and shut everything down again.
[Reply]
ChiliConCarnage 02:53 PM 04-20-2020
There is a small town in California that is going to test every person. Working with University of California.
[Reply]
petegz28 02:55 PM 04-20-2020
Coronavirus antibody testing shows LA County outbreak is up to 55 times bigger than reported cases
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/coro...ted-cases.html

Originally Posted by :
This new estimate is 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed cases of Covid-19 reported to the county in early April. The number of coronavirus-related deaths in the county has now surpassed 600, according to the Department of Public Health. The data, if correct, would mean that the county’s fatality rate is lower than originally thought.

[Reply]
mr. tegu 02:55 PM 04-20-2020
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins:
As more information comes in our ability to refine predictions will obviously improve. I've mentioned this twice in the last day, but I think it bears repeating. Regardless of what you initially believed about the models, we are getting enough data in from New York and the infectiousness of the virus to make some baseline assumptions about the death toll that are fairly well grounded.

What we know:
*New York State has a population of 20,000,000
*New York has a death toll of 17,671 at this point
*Tests of suspected COVID patients in New York were 38% as of April 1
*Deaths usually lag about two weeks behind infections

What we are assuming based upon some clinical research:

The low end of the R0 is 2.2, the high end is over 8. One study put the R0 at 5.7

We can plug and chug to help us understand fatality rates, but this is still back of the napkin stuff:

Given that 38% of suspected COVID patients were positive in April (and those are the ones most likely to test positive) and the test has a false negative rate of 30%, at most 47% of people in New York (and I'm counting the entire state, which will greatly elevate the potential number of infected) would have been infected at that time.

That gives us a pool of 9.4 million infections in New York. Although this is highly, highly unlikely, it would give us a lower bound of a fatality rate. As of now it would be 0.19.

Now, if we assume that the R0 is 2.2, then we would need 55% of the population to be infected to reach herd immunity. If the R0 is 5.7, then it's 82%.

Thus, with no mitigation strategies, and assuming that New York had a population that was actually 47% positive (essentially impossible) with no excess deaths, the total death rate from COVID with no mitigation would be:

330,000,000*0.55*0.0019= 344,850

With an R0 of 5.7 it is: 330,000,000*0.82*0.0019=514,140

And that's assuming that hospitals wouldn't be overrun.

If mitigation strategies reduced the R0 (known as Re) of the virus to 1.5, then 1/3 of the population would need to contract the virus for herd immunity. Thus, mitigation strategies, even if they only lowered the infectiousness of the virus by 50% on on the low end, would save this many lives:

(344,850)-330,000,000*0.33*.0019= 137,940

So, given what we know now, even if mitigation strategies were only 50% effective and the virus was at the low end of infectiousness, distancing, shutdowns, mask wearing in public after reopening would save, at minimum, 137,940 lives.

I can definitely see how the model came to an estimate of 1.1-2.2 million deaths without mitigation, because if New York ends up with 40,000 dead, then, by definition, the CFR couldn't be less than 0.2%, even if every single person in the state was infected, which is an impossibility.

One potential problem with these assumptions is that the New York City area is disproportionately affecting the entire state and your numbers. Stats show that 62.5% of New York’s population (the downstate area) accounts for 91.7% of deaths in the state. NYC is so different than the rest of the state that you everything is elevated beyond a reasonable extrapolation to the rest of state and country as a whole.

Using New York’s site here: https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov...r=no&%3Atabs=n

You can find stats for just the lower portion, high populated area of the state, they call it downstate. I couldn’t get a picture of it here.

This small part of the state has 13165 deaths and 228908 positives. A population of about 12.5 million (62.5% population) Going by your 47% (not sure where that came from) that’s a potential of about 6 million so a fatality rate of about 0.21. So not much different than your estimate for the whole state.

But filtering them out the rest of the state has 1182 deaths, 247512 positives (huge rate difference), and about 7.5 million (37.5% population) people so a potential at 47% of 3.5 million, a fatality rate of about 0.03.

Just averaging these out, you get about a 0.12 fatality rate which I think is a much better estimate for the state as a whole even though it’s still weighted a bit towards the downstate area stats.

The positive rates are also way lower everywhere else in the state, including some of the bigger cities. They are more in line with the 15-20% rate.

So you can sort of play with those numbers in the rest of your calculations and they change a lot, but at the very least, even if we ignore all of the estimates, based on these numbers we can assume as close to factual, 62.5% of New York’s population accounts for 91.7% of deaths in the state. I just don’t think you can ignore such small geographically dense numbers and try to extrapolate them to the state, then use those in nationwide numbers.
[Reply]
TLO 02:55 PM 04-20-2020
Originally Posted by ChiliConCarnage:
There is a small town in California that is going to test every person. Working with University of California.
Antibody tests I'm assuming?

What's the population of the town?
[Reply]
ChiliConCarnage 02:56 PM 04-20-2020
Originally Posted by :
Coronavirus antibody testing shows LA County outbreak is up to 55 times bigger than reported cases
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/coro...ted-cases.html
[Reply]
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