Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
A little, but realize what has to happen to aerosolize something like that AND have it hang.
We've all operated in cold climates - the steam is essentially the moisture in your breath. Alright, well it's immediately falling when you exhale, no? And it's dispersed into trace amount (which would again be detectable, but not necessarily transmittable) with any amount of circulation.
So confined spaces with poor circulation (HELLO MASS TRANSIT) is probably not where you want to be. Because in those cases there probably is just enough contamination through potential asymptomatic carriers to spread.
But if you're in any sort of open space with any sort of circulation (i.e. can you fart in this room and not smell it a minute later), the odds are overwhelmingly positive that you're not going to get it from some dude just standing around breathing.
Now someone sneezing is going to be putting a far more concentrated spray pattern over larger distances and with higher viral loads. So yeah...no bueno. But again, that's where the social distancing, smaller incubation periods, high percentage of mild cases and simple ****ing hygiene are all massive allies.
Again - this strikes me as good news, not bad.
Yes, I think the language is a little vague:
The scientists found that severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was detectable in aerosols for up to three hours, up to four hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to two to three days on plastic and stainless steel.
We have no evidence that this bug isn't airborne, and let's hope it never does. I presume they mean with the above that it's still droplet transmission and that three hour figure is once it reaches a surface? [Reply]
Originally Posted by displacedinMN:
Several tribal-run casinos are temporarily closing, though Minnesota's largest — Mystic Lake — will remain open for now.
Originally Posted by BWillie:
The current case mortality rate is much, much higher than previously thought.
Look at recoveries + deaths = total cases. The current cases do not matter because they have not ran their course yet to become either recoveries or deaths.
Mortality rates outside of China have been higher with the exception of maybe South Korea.
The current case mortality rate is based on a completely skewed denominator that isn't remotely supported by any sort of empirical testing.
The denominator is made overwhelmingly of serious cases. It's akin to only testing for lung cancer from those that are openly apparent risk groups. So hey! Lets do lung cancer rates from smokers and say that's the mortality rate for lung cancer as applied to the general population!
It doesn't work that way. Moreover, on the ground studies done by the WHO after they got on the scene (and thus aren't beholden to China's tendency to simply hide information) were putting the mortality rate in the 1.4% range of those with symptoms. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
The current case mortality rate is based on a completely skewed denominator that isn't remotely supported by any sort of empirical testing.
The denominator is made overwhelmingly of serious cases. It's akin to only testing for lung cancer from those that are openly apparent risk groups. So hey! Lets do lung cancer rates from smokers and say that's the mortality rate for lung cancer as applied to the general population!
It doesn't work that way. Moreover, on the ground studies done by the WHO after they got on the scene (and thus aren't beholden to China's tendency to simply hide information) were putting the mortality rate in the 1.4% range of those with symptoms.
Nonetheless, those of you trying to figure out the mortality rate based on active cases and deaths are doing it wrong. Active cases do not mean anything. They are still active and ongoing and have no effect on mortality rate until they are either recovered or dead. [Reply]
Originally Posted by displacedinMN:
Several tribal-run casinos are temporarily closing, though Minnesota's largest — Mystic Lake — will remain open for now.
They should be ordered to close.
They're probably fitting all their beds with corona infected blankets. [Reply]
Originally Posted by displacedinMN:
Several tribal-run casinos are temporarily closing, though Minnesota's largest — Mystic Lake — will remain open for now.
They should be ordered to close.
Online gambling is going to get a surge in business. [Reply]
Originally Posted by :
French President Emmanuel Macron has put his country into full lockdown, declaring ‘we are at war with the coronavirus.’
He also announced a suspension of rent, taxes and household bills.
The minute details of the lock-down outlined tight controls over residents' civil liberties unprecedented in peacetime.
The French will be required to download a form online and fill it out each time they venture outside - writing ‘going out to buy a baguette’ or ‘walking the dog’ - or risk a €38 (£34.60) fine if they are caught short
The country's interior minister outlined the finer details after Mr Macron announced the extreme measures in a solemn live TV address on Monday evening.
Mr Macron said earlier people would have to stay at home unless shopping for food or going to a pharmacy, heading for absolutely essential work, or exercising alone.
The lock-down measures come in at midday tomorrow and are set to remain in force for at least two weeks, as France follows the lead of other EU nations and shuts its borders amid the global pandemic.
Rent and taxes suspended
Mr Macron announced the lock-down move as he handed a reprieve to French households and businesses set to be hit by the extreme measures.
The French leader suspended payment of taxes, rent, social charges, water, electricity, and gas.
In a live television address to the nation, he also pledged that no French company would be exposed to the risk of collapse as he announced billions in euros in loans to help keep businesses afloat.
Borders with other European countries will also be closed, although French national will be allowed to ‘return home’.
Hotels and other private businesses will meanwhile be requisitioned by the state in order to help treat Covid-19 patients.
The measures will start at 12 midday on Tuesday, and go on for ‘at least two weeks’, Mr Macron said.
He told the nation: "Walking, meeting friends in the park or in the street will no longer be possible.
"It is a question of limiting as much as possible all contact beyond the home. All over French territory, in mainland France as well as overseas, only necessary journeys must remain necessary."
Mr Macron acknowledged the economic cost would be enormous.
He added: "All businesses must organise to facilitate remote work. And when that is not possible, they will have to adapt their organization to enforce these new measures."
Government grants will be made available to those facing bankruptcy, while tax demands will be frozen.
It comes as the death toll hits 127 in France.
The country has recorded around 5,400 infections, with 400 still in intensive care in its hospitals, which are struggling to cope.
France had already closed its ski resorts early, and had shut major landmarks such as the Louvre Museum in Paris as a precaution against mass gatherings.
Despite measures brought in over the weekend including a ban on crowds of more than 100, and the closure of non-essential shops, people were still breaking the new rules.
Mr Macron said: "We are at war and the Nation will support its children who, there, medical staff in town, at the hospital, are on the front line in a fight that will ask them for determination, solidarity.
"They have rights over us. We obviously owe them the means, the protection. We will be there. We owe them masks, gel, all the necessary equipment, and we will make sure of it.
"We also owe caregivers custody of their children. A minimum daycare service has been in place since that day in nurseries and schools. We also owe them serenity, movement and rest.
"This is why I decided that from taxis and hotels can be mobilised for their benefit. The state will pay.
"I therefore decided that a field hospital of the army service would be deployed in the days to come in Alsace (the eastern region close to Germany). The army will also help to move the sick from the most affected regions and thus reduce congestion in hospitals."
Mr Macron said his government had taken 'firm decisions' to limit the spread of the virus, after an Italian lock-down style approach was recommended to him by government's science experts.
With today's announcement, France becomes the latest country to follow in the footsteps of coronavirus-ravaged Italy, which is now entering its second week in total lock-down.
Eerie scenes of streets deserted in the country usually bustling with locals and tourists have swept the globe, as Italy cracked down on all public gatherings in a bid to drive down a skyrocketing death toll.
How will the restrictions work?
The police and army are set to strictly enforce the new restrictions.
Interior Minister Christophe Castaner warned anyone leaving the house in France ‘for any reason’ will have to download a form or risk a minimum £34.60 fine enforced by 100,000 police and gendarmes.
Mr Castaner said ‘essential professions’ who can still enjoy easy travel include medical and postal workers, but few others.
They will instead have to write ‘going out to buy a baguette’ or ‘walking the dog’ on an individual printed form every single time.
"We can always practice a physical activity or take our dog out, but everyone should do it sparingly, without meeting in a group," Mr Castaner said.
"We can get some fresh air yes, but certainly not play a football match. A control system will be set up by 100,000 police and gendarmes," he added.
Mr Castaner said the minum fine would be €38 (£34.60) and that this would ‘rapidly rise’ to €130 (£118) if it remained unpaid.
The forms will be downloadable online from the website of the French Ministry of the Interior each night during a minimum lockdown of two weeks, starting at midday on Tuesday.
"It will be up to everyone to fill it out to specify the nature of their trip," said Mr Castaner. "Those who have business cards will be invited to present them."
