The bills are in the position they are for a reason, just like the chiefs. It’s not very often you actually get the two best teams of the regular season in the championship game. This is gonna be a tough game for both teams. Both teams will make plays on defense and offense, but I do believe this game comes down to the offensive side. Gonna have to score some points. Gonna be close. Gonna be good. Hope the all the chiefs difference makers show up big in this one. [Reply]
Originally Posted by hebert19:
1. Did you see gameplan last week? Answer is no just on zone. Last week we brought the pressure from other areas. We won't blitz by bringing numbers we will blitz from edges and with 2 Lbs and drop linemen back. We rarely get pressure just with front 4 so need to be creative...but it won't be just drop in zone like last time. Other big variable here is Milano was out. Our best run defender as was Wallace who tackles well from cb. We have yet to lose when Milano plays 12-0. That will help.
2. Adjustments. Well a healthy brown helps. Davis is playing better and Allen's ability to adjust protections and read the defense has improved dramatically since the last game. Again. After that game we were -11 in point differential. Since then +155. Clearly not the same team. I fully expect we spread you out and throw the ball...and mix in the run and most importantly the QB runs to keep you honest. The big adjustment is just josh allen being confident. He looked like a deer in headlights last game against you. On top of this. When we have needed to run we have run. The gameplan is always pass first but if you check out the games we have iced 3 games this year by getting the ball with 6 or more minutes left and ran the ball down the teams throat....when they knew it was coming. It's not a lack of capability in the run game its a lack of sticking to it. We will find a way to run I think this game. Moss being out hurts however as he was the go to guy down the stretch.
When the Chiefs have the ball:
I'm not worried about your game plan against a one dimensional Ravens team with a QB with questionable arm strength playing in gale force winds. I 100% don't care what you did to them, or what you did for any other team you faced. I only care about your matchup with the Chiefs, and I for one, hope you blitz Mahomes (and let's all be honest here: Mahomes is playing...) He's probably the best QB against the blitz there is....
And if you are going to blitz like you did against the Ravens, then your matchup problems against Hill and Kelce become exponentially magnified.....and you are insane if you think Milano is hanging with Kelce.....ain't happening in a million years.
And while it's uncertain at this point, there is the possibility we'll have Watkins back, and while the guy is made out of glass, he comes up big when he plays in the playoffs. But he's not the key component in the offense anyways, and a combo of Hardman, Pringle, and Robinson can easily match the production.
When the Bills have the ball:
I would agree that Brown helps, but he's not a world beater by any stretch, and how much of the "Brown" benefit is off-set with gimpy Beasley (for all intent and purposes, it seems to me that maybe he isn't as gimpy as people think). I think Breeland potentially not being available can be big, but in our first matchup, we didn't have Sneed either (who has played amazing this season for a rookie, and has the speed to keep up with most of the fastest receivers). Net Neutral impact in my mind, and we have a solid defensive core.
We actually match up well with your receiving core. Diggs is going to get his, but nobody on this end is scared of Brown, Beasley, Dawson, etc. Diggs is amazing, but most of the rest is pedestrian. As a unit they all work well together, no differently than the Chiefs core, but the Chiefs DBs match up very well against that group. On top of that, the Chiefs do a fantastic job disguising coverages and blitzing, no differently than they did against the Bills in the first game.
All this talk about "the Bills are a different team" doesn't change the fact that this is a great matchup for the Chiefs. As I've always said, it guarantees absolutely nothing, and the Bills most certainly can win the game. However, to just assume that the Bills are better, or match up differently just "because" is silly. There are a lot of unanswered questions in the specific matchups that don't simply go away just because the Bills are playing good ball. [Reply]
Guess what? So are the Chiefs. They've handily beaten both Tampa and NO since the halfway point, two of the very best defenses in the NFL. They've had the kitchen sink thrown at them every week and the starters haven't lost a game since week 5.
They're tested, rested, and ready. Breeland and Watkins both practiced today, they're both going to play. [Reply]
Best defenses I've seen vs Patrick Mahomes are probably the Chargers & 49ers. That of course requires you to manufacture a pass rush using 4 down lineman named...Bosa, Ingram, Buckner & Bosa. Good Luck.
You have to get pressure by not sacrificing people in coverage. You bring a blitz & you are dead meat.
The combination of Mahomes, Andy Reid as a play designer and caller, and the Chiefs WR's makes the Chiefs nearly impossible to cover. This season, defenses have hoped to prevent the big passing play by using two deep safeties. It is the best way to slow down the Chiefs offense that I've seen. Buffalo kept two deep and a light box up front in order to dare the Chiefs to run. The Chiefs obliged but the Bills couldn’t stop them on the ground. The Chargers were able to use that deep coverage and add on with four-man pressures that allowed for more coverage on the second level. And just by keeping the game close, that still left a chance for the Chiefs to pull away at the end of the game for wins.
The coverage aren’t so much about if the Chiefs will beat the defense but more so how the Chiefs will beat the defense. That’s the problem with stopping the Chiefs offense, solving one problem creates another. This is incredibly oversimplified, but Tyreek Hill has been able to feast on single-high coverage and when the Chiefs face two-high safeties, it’s time for Travis Kelce. Pick your poison.
Even the best corners in the league haven’t been able to hold up and few safeties have the range to get from the middle of the field over to the sideline in order to catch Hill on the outside. Take the Tampa Bay game when the Buccaneers tried to run their typical defense, but even Carlton Davis, who had played like one of the better corners in the league, could only do so much in man coverage. He repeatedly got burned in the first quarter. Hill had six receptions on seven targets for 188 yards and three touchdowns against single-high coverages in that game.
Kelce’s ability to work the intermediate middle of the field when the safeties are playing deep has been a huge part of the Kansas City passing game this season and a big reason why he has had the greatest season by a TE in NFL history as teams have been employing the 2-high tactic. Between Reid's route concepts and Kelce’s run after the catch ability, he’s been one of the more productive receivers after the catch.
For as much as defenses have tried to vary game plans against the Chiefs, the best defense this year has been an offense able to keep up. That’s how the Raiders gave the Chiefs their lone loss with Mahomes.
Buffalo might still present the most interesting test as a team that figured out how to slow down the offense, but couldn’t stop the run when they dared the Chiefs to do it. But since that game, the Bills’ run defense has improved, which could limit the damage done on the ground, though it’s no guarantee the Chiefs would give in to the light boxes again. But the Bills’ pass defense has also improved after a rough start and on its best day, the Buffalo offense has the ability to put up points.
Still, we’re talking about everything breaking just right for a team to defend and hang with the Chiefs. It’s not impossible, but even without blowing teams away, Kansas City has made it as hard as possible to take them down.
Originally Posted by KChiefs1:
Best defenses I've seen vs Patrick Mahomes are probably the Chargers & 49ers. That of course requires you to manufacture a pass rush using 4 down lineman named...Bosa, Ingram, Buckner & Bosa. Good Luck.
Don't forget the Saints.
Originally Posted by KChiefs1:
For as much as defenses have tried to vary game plans against the Chiefs, the best defense this year has been an offense able to keep up. That’s how the Raiders gave the Chiefs their lone loss with Mahomes.
The Raiders, though, kept them off balance by using the run game to setup deep play action. Buffalo doesn't really present enough rushing threat to do that. You can't just line up and sling it deep - you have to keep the defense honest, which is what the Raiders did. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Molitoth:
How many points will Butker leave on the table?
1? 4? 7?
You know he is going to miss an extra point and maybe an easy FG.
He missed one XP and no FGs in last season's playoffs and had been perfect in the regular season this year since Carolina through the end of the season.
So, I guess this is one of those "a rare thing happened so rare things will continue to happen all the time" kind of things? [Reply]
