The Cleveland Browns won't be able to "keep Patrick Mahomes on the sidelines" on Sunday. The Kansas City Chiefs will have their chances, and time of possession
"To win this game, they need to keep Patrick Mahomes on the sideline."
A football adage as old as time, keeping the elite quarterback "on the sideline" has been a go-to line for many announcers over the years. Recently, however, there has been pushback on this line of thinking, and for good reason.
The primary goal against elite quarterbacks should be to score early and often.
This line of thinking seems as obvious as "score more than the other team," but it is still the plain truth and makes more logical sense than focusing on a comparatively insignificant statistic like time of possession. Unless a coach is confident they can stop an elite offense helmed by an elite quarterback for a full 60 minutes, trying to win the time of possession game is a fool's errand. The basic flow of an NFL game dictates this.
In the NFL, teams are always afforded a possession after the other team scores or punts, unless the receiving team turns it over or an onside kick happens. This ensures that the vast majority of the time, teams simply take turns. A team’s opponent will always have an opportunity to answer any possession with a possession of their own.
What does this mean for the time of possession debate? It means that no matter how long a drive is, Patrick Mahomes will have the opportunity to answer that drive.
One would think, then, that the Chiefs would have fewer drives in games they lose the time of possession battle. However, this just isn’t the case.
In the Chiefs’ 10 worst games by total time of possession under Mahomes, the Chiefs averaged 10.2 drives per game. In the Chiefs’ 10 best games by total time of possession under Mahomes, the Chiefs averaged 10.7 drives per game. That .5 difference is not meaningful in any way. Mahomes still gets the opportunities even when the Chiefs' offense is on the sideline more.
What is meaningful is the Chiefs’ record in the low time of possession games. They are 5-5 in the bottom 10 time of possession games and 9-1 in the top ten time of possession games. If it’s not the drives that account for this record, then what does?
It is the performance of the Chiefs as a team.
It isn’t a revelation that playing poorly leads to losses, but when a conversation about why Kansas City lost meanders back to time of possession, perspective is lost.
Take, for instance, the Colts game from the 2019 season. A game that led many to believe a blueprint was found to beat the Chiefs: run the ball. But look closer.
When examining the Colts game, it’s hard to say Marlon Mack running at a clip of 4.6 yards per carry was the real reason the Colts won. It probably wasn’t their 36% conversion rate on third down (5/14) either.
The real reason the Chiefs lost was because of their own uncharacteristically poor offensive play.
In the Colts game, the Chiefs only scored on 30% of their drives (3/10) which was their lowest rate of the 2019 season and was 26th in the league when comparing it to 2019’s season scoring rates. Two of those scores were just field goals. Outside of the Chiefs’ three scoring drives, the other six drives of consequence (one drive was 10 seconds before the half) the Chiefs averaged 1:48 of possession and gained an average of 15.5 yards per drive. That was the reason the Colts beat the Chiefs, not "holding" them to an average number of drives.
The closest the Chiefs have come to losing because of situational time of possession in the Mahomes era came just after the aforementioned Colts game, losing 31-24 to the Texans.
The Texans controlled the ball for 13:46 of game time in the fourth quarter. It seems like the Chiefs never got a chance to win because of that, right? Well... no.
Just before the fourth quarter started, with the game tied 24-24, the Chiefs had a 15-second three-and-out. When the Texans went up 31-24, the Chiefs had another offensive possession and went three-and-out again. The Texans ran out the clock and ended the game on the next drive.
Is time of possession really the reason the Chiefs lost in this sequence? The defense failing to produce a stop was certainly not ideal and was a small reason for the loss, however, the Chiefs still had multiple chances to win the game late despite Houston having almost 40 minutes of time of possession. I’d argue the Chiefs going three-and-out twice during high leverage portions of the game was at larger fault for the loss.
The Texans game from 2019 is the most extreme example of time of possession being used against the Chiefs. Why is it not wielded more? Because it’s damn hard to execute a clock-chewing strategy.
To amass long, sustained drives, teams need to do so many things right that it’s almost impossible to do it over the course of a full game. They need to run the ball effectively, constantly. They need to have few to no penalties. They need to convert on an extremely high number of third and/or fourth downs. All of these outcomes then need to result in a touchdown.
Long, chain-moving touchdown drives are a wonderful ideal to strive for in theory, however, the opponent’s defense is being paid to stop you, and if you give them more chances to stop you, they are bound to do it eventually. One disruptive Chris Jones sack and the whole point of the drive goes up in flames.
If a team employs a long, sustained drive that ends in a field goal against the Chiefs, they are already behind the 8-ball. That drive is a failure. They have to pray the Chiefs are having an off game on offense, otherwise, they'll be down by four points two minutes later.
Most of the Chiefs’ losses have common threads: a combination of turnovers, uncharacteristically bad offensive play and poor defensive play that lets the opponent have breathing room in the margins. In other words, when the Chiefs play poorly or if the other team outplays them, they lose! It’s hard to say in any of their games that time of possession contributed at a meaningful level to the Chiefs’ loss. Their losses come entirely from them not capitalizing on drives like they usually do.
One team trying to maintain long, sustained drives barely impacts the number of drives in a game. This is made evident by the way the Chiefs have lost an average of just .5 drives per game from their best time of possession games to their worst. If the Chiefs don’t play along with the charade of a time of possession game, they aren’t worse off. In fact, they're probably pretty happy. They can still dictate the game. Patrick Mahomes still gets his chances to be special.
If the Chiefs offense is firing on all cylinders, no amount of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt churning clock will lead to a Chiefs loss against the Browns on Sunday. For every eight-minute touchdown drive the Browns have, the Chiefs will have a chance to respond with a touchdown of their own. "Keep Patrick Mahomes on the sideline" at your own risk; in doing so, it might just be shortening the amount of time available to come back from the onslaught of touchdowns he and the Chiefs will score.
The rest of the articles with the videos https://www.si.com/nfl/chiefs/gm-rep...DW1bK0EI6nWEmo [Reply]
Exactly...teams just take turns. Unless you're causing turnovers or strategically ending the half, you're just giving the ball back after your turn. The only secret is making good use of your turn and scoring points or creating more turns through turnovers.
I never ever understood the whole clock thing aside from tiring out the defense. [Reply]
Probably gonna watch the game with the fucking sound off.
Cleveland may have success running the ball, and all I'm gonna hear from the dipshits is shit like "ANOTHER first down! That's another 1 minute of this game in which Patrick Mahomes is not on the field!"
Unfortunately I still have to watch the fucking annoying camera shots to Patrick Mahomes on the sideline with his helmet off standing there while the Browns have the ball. Only way around that is to not watch the game.
They'll do anything to play that shit up, and it makes me very upset. [Reply]
Originally Posted by loochy:
Exactly...teams just take turns. Unless you're causing turnovers or strategically ending the half, you're just giving the ball back after your turn. The only secret is making good use of your turn and scoring points.
I never ever understood the whole clock thing aside from tiring out the defense.
Exactly.
We went down 24-0 against Houston because we had a special teams turnover and two horrendous 3rd down drops deep in our own territory. Also, our defense sucked goat testicles in the 1st quarter.
We went down 24-0 against Houston because we had a special teams turnover and two horrendous 3rd down drops deep in our own territory. Also, our defense sucked goat testicles in the 1st quarter.
All of that is some fluke-ass shit.
KC lost TOP in that game by about 10 minutes (35-HOU, 25 KC approx.). And scored 41 points in just 18 minutes of possession time (6 consecutive drives from the 2nd quarter and the 3rd). [Reply]
I still think the reality is that's the only way to play us. Yeah it might not work, but what's your other option? Trying to stand in the ring and go toe-to-toe is pure suicide. It's not even about winning TOP, it's about limiting the total number of possessions. You'd rather Mahomes had the ball 9 times instead of 14, because the more chances you give him the more you're playing with fire. You're hoping to limit possessions and hope that he screws up on half of them, and even then he can still get you at the end. (Just ask the Niners)
The only other option is to have someone like Aaron Rodgers or some other QB playing out of his mind. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
it will in this game if we let myles garrett run amuck
we can’t let Garrett **** with our football savior. Garrett has genuine talent. He has to be dealt with and accounted for at all times. I’m sure they have a plan to not let him ruin our day. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BigRedChief:
we can’t let Garrett **** with our football savior. Garrett has genuine talent. He has to be dealt with and accounted for at all times. I’m sure they have a plan to not let him ruin our day.
You flat out take him out of the game, so to speak. That's gets the W. [Reply]
Originally Posted by tk13:
I still think the reality is that's the only way to play us. Yeah it might not work, but what's your other option? Trying to stand in the ring and go toe-to-toe is pure suicide. It's not even about winning TOP, it's about limiting the total number of possessions. You'd rather Mahomes had the ball 9 times instead of 14, because the more chances you give him the more you're playing with fire. You're hoping to limit possessions and hope that he screws up on half of them, and even then he can still get you at the end. (Just ask the Niners)
The only other option is to have someone like Aaron Rodgers or some other QB playing out of his mind.
It's this right there.
When I discovered that giving Mahomes 11 or more possessions practically guaranteed KC would score 40 points or more, the light went on. In the NFL, no one scores 40 points every game. But if you give Mahomes 11 or more possessions, KC scores 40+ nearly every time.
So, since no NFL expects to score 40 points/game, the obvious answer is to limit KC's possessions down to 10 or less, where the math says KC scores about 30+. That score some NFL teams can manage. But the problem is now they have to score more efficiently than they average against everyone else. If they only score 50% of the time, but it normally takes 12 possessions for them to score 30 points, that won't work. They have to score at a higher rate, because they have to get to 30 points just to be in the game. So now they have to score at a rate of like 65%-70%, or 15-20% more efficiently than their average. It's the only way for them to score 30 points with just 9-10 possessions.
And that's what's been the downfall of every team KC has played since week 11 of last season. No one's done it since week 5 vs. LVR, when they scored well above their average. Everyone else scored right around their average vs. the league, and ended up not being able to score at least 30 points, which you have to have just to be in the game. It's like your ante in poker. You need 30 points to ante up. After that, you're playing to try and win.
And they still needed the refs to erase two KC TDs to win. [Reply]
Originally Posted by tk13:
I still think the reality is that's the only way to play us. Yeah it might not work, but what's your other option? Trying to stand in the ring and go toe-to-toe is pure suicide. It's not even about winning TOP, it's about limiting the total number of possessions. You'd rather Mahomes had the ball 9 times instead of 14, because the more chances you give him the more you're playing with fire. You're hoping to limit possessions and hope that he screws up on half of them, and even then he can still get you at the end. (Just ask the Niners)
The only other option is to have someone like Aaron Rodgers or some other QB playing out of his mind.
Um, if it doesn't work, how is it an option?
It simply doesn't work. Trying to limit the Chiefs' possessions also shortens the game, meaning you get less possessions yourself. It's still a a matter of scoring efficiency, whether it's 48-44 or 28-24.
The only thing that actually works is to split the difference. Try to start a shootout in the first half, then slow it down in the 2nd. Try to get the Chiefs to press, which is what the Raiders did in the first game. [Reply]
So glad to see this. You know who complains about TOP? People who read books about submarines, and the crowd that constantly bitches about the defense in the GDT. Oh no the defense is keeping Mahomes on the sideline while the opponent gains 4 yards per play.
Every freaking nfl show talks about this, especially former players and coaches who should know better. As soon as I hear this I discount everything else. TOP only matters if our own offense can't get first downs, period. [Reply]
What works against the Chiefs is to be able to get good pressure up front with 4 pass rushers and have an excellent secondary that does not let receivers get open. There are few teams that can do this consistently. One of them is the Chargers. The Niners did it in the SB for about 52 ½ minutes. And notice that KC scored 3 TDs in the last 7.5 minutes of the game. And LA and SF have defensive players with the last name of ‘Bosa’.
Doing this repeatedly can shorten the time that Mahomes has to get to an open target and disrupt KC’s offense. Is it fool proof? No. But if a team can consistently do this on defense, it can limit the number of times that Mahomes scores when Mahomes does have the ball. Also, teams doing this have to play mistake-free football. Otherwise, they short circuit themselves and give Mahomes more opportunities, which is the exact opposite of their goal. [Reply]