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https://theathletic.com/2323197/2021...isional-round/
NFL picks against the spread: Predicting the divisional round matchups
by
Sheil Kapadia
Originally Posted by :
Rams at Packers (-6.5)
It will be strength on strength at Lambeau Field. The Rams’ defense finished the season first in weighted DVOA, which means no one was playing better than them at the end of the season. And Los Angeles was flat-out dominant in its wild-card win over the Seahawks. The Packers’ offense, meanwhile, ranked first in DVOA during the regular season.
As outlined earlier this week, the Rams do a great job of not tipping their hand before the snap. Last week, they “fooled” Russell Wilson into a pick-six. The back-and-forth between Aaron Rodgers and the defense before the snap is going to be fun to watch. If there’s a weakness for the Rams, it’s going against play-action. According to TruMedia and Pro Football Focus, they ranked 14th in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play against play-action throws. Rodgers, meanwhile, was the league’s most efficient play-action passer. The Rams’ ability to handle Green Bay’s play-action schemes will go a long way in determining who wins this game.
It’s hard to know exactly what to expect on the other side of the ball. Mike Pettine might still be waking up with nightmares after what Kyle Shanahan did to him in the NFC Championship game last year. And in terms of DVOA, the Packers were actually slightly better in 2019 than they were this year.
Jared Goff will start, but Sean McVay won’t ask him to do too much. McVay needs to scheme up a couple big plays, but the Rams are likely to take a conservative, run-heavy approach.
The Packers are the better team, but I am a big believer in this Rams defense. Green Bay advances, but give me the points.
The pick: Rams (+6.5)
Originally Posted by :
Ravens at Bills (-2.5)
The Bills’ defense did not look good last week. The Colts drove into Buffalo territory on every drive and piled up 27 first downs and 472 yards. Now they’ll face a Ravens team that has won six in a row after last week’s road victory at Tennessee.
Stefon Diggs, John Brown and the Bills receivers against Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Peters and the Ravens cornerbacks might be the most fun matchup in any of the divisional round games. Baltimore plays a heavy dose of man coverage, and Josh Allen was the league’s best quarterback against man coverage, according to Sports Info Solutions.
The Ravens blitzed at a higher rate than any defense in the regular season. Know who shredded the blitz? Josh Allen! The Bills ranked third in EPA per snap when opponents rushed five or more.
I think the winner of this game has a legitimate chance to win the Super Bowl. It would not surprise me at all if the Ravens pulled the upset. But one rule for the divisional round is to not overreact to the wild-card round. The Bills’ defense had been playing well down the stretch, and if they don’t turn the ball over, I think they’re going to put up points here.
The pick: Bills (-2.5)
Originally Posted by :
Browns at Chiefs (-10)
The Browns are playing with house money. They can lose 37-0, and guess what? The season would still be considered a success. You can’t say that about any other team that is still alive. Cleveland is expected to get cornerback Denzel Ward back for this game, and that’s a big deal. During the regular season, when they had Ward, they performed like the 11th-ranked defense. Without him, they were one of the league’s worst.
It feels weird to say because they went 14-2, but the Chiefs were not juggernauts during the regular season. The last time they won a game by more than six points was Nov. 1 (Week 8). Was this a case of a team playing down to its competition? Would it surprise anyone to see Patrick Mahomes just carve up opponents for three straight games en route to a second Super Bowl? I don’t think so. But it’s also possible that the Chiefs just aren’t light years ahead of their competition.
The whole “control the clock” narrative is overrated. What the Browns need to do is score touchdowns at all costs. That means being aggressive on fourth downs, converting in the red zone and maybe taking risks on special teams.
I’m hesitant to go against this Browns team, given how often they’ve surprised me this year. But Andy Reid coming off a bye and Mahomes against that secondary might just be too much to handle.
The pick: Chiefs (-10)
Originally Posted by :
Buccaneers at Saints (-3.5)
In two regular-season games, the Saints outscored the Bucs 72-26. Tampa was a high-percentage zone team in the regular season, and that plays right into Drew Brees’ hands. Brees ranked eighth in EPA per play against zone during the regular season. New Orleans didn’t light it up offensively last week against the Bears, but the Saints shredded Chicago on third down, converting 11 of 17 opportunities.
Meanwhile, the Bucs’ offense looked good against Washington. In eight games since their Week 10 loss to the Saints, Tampa’s offense ranks second in EPA per play behind only the Packers. The defense did not play well in the wild-card round, but the Bucs are expected to get linebacker Devin White back for this one.
The Bucs are a high-variance team, making them especially risky to wager on. But I think these teams are pretty even, so I’ll take the points and bet on the Bucs’ upside.
The pick: Buccaneers (+3.5)
[Reply]
These are the traitors, the Benedict Arnolds if you will...
ClevelandBronco, Hammock Parties, lawrenceRaider, Wolfman
[Reply]
Originally Posted by neech:
These are the traders, the Benedict Arnolds if you will...
ClevelandBronco, Hammock Parties, lawrenceRaider, Wolfman
Well Cleveland Bronco and lawrenceRaider aren't Chiefs fans, so...
And Hammock is just being an outstanding citizen.
:-)
[Reply]
Originally Posted by KChiefs1:
I'm surprised by all the Buccaneers love.
So everyone is assuming that the NFL wants Brady in the NFC Championship game?
I don't think there is a fix in, both are good teams. Brees is good, but when it comes to 'it' at the championship level, there's a disparity. The game is going to be close and 'boring' with the defenses doing a lot, and Brady will do something boring and brutally efficient to take the lead late [like a 4 pass, 7 run 85-yard drive], and it will be up to Brees to answer. The $1MQ will be if he sheds the 'chokes' [often ratfucks] of years past or notches another one.
I'm rooting for the Saints on my cousin's behalf, but if it comes down to Brady/Brees, Brady still holds an edge.
[Reply]
Originally Posted by KChiefs1:
Packers - easy
Ravens - close
Chiefs - easy
Saints - this one was a toss up for me.
The history shows that teams who have swept the season series, have went 14-7 vs the other team. It would be great to see Brady vs Rodgers in Lambeau Field.
Championship Games:
Ravens @ Chiefs
Saints @ Packers
I also think today’s games will be high scoring & tomorrow’s games low scoring.
Rams vs Packers- over
Ravens vs Bills - over
Browns vs Chiefs - under
Buccaneers vs Saints - under
[Reply]
