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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
Bowser 05:28 PM 07-07-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
I'm not sure I understand your meaning?
November is a little bit important this year in this country, so I was a touch surprised they'd go that far out at the beginning of July, that's all.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
[Reply]
loochy 05:30 PM 07-07-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
I'm not sure I understand your meaning?
What do you think will happen in November?
[Reply]
TLO 05:30 PM 07-07-2020
Originally Posted by Bowser:
November is a little bit important this year in this country, so I was a touch surprised they'd go that far out at the beginning of July, that's all.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
Originally Posted by loochy:
What do you think will happen in November?
Ok I gotcha
[Reply]
Pablo 05:37 PM 07-07-2020
I only get my information from the CPDC thread now. This was useful but all the geniouses have obviously moved on.
[Reply]
petegz28 05:43 PM 07-07-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
Ok I gotcha
Gonna get close to 1,000 deaths today. CA hit triple digits. Most likely some backlog with them as well but it pushed the total for the day.
[Reply]
Stro39 05:48 PM 07-07-2020
Originally Posted by O.city:
So with deaths not going up with cases, it seems there's something we've missed. I think there were way way more cases back in Feb/March/April than we caught, so deaths were higher. The cases we're catching now are milder and there are less of them. We know how to better deal with this now as well.

That's my theory.

Everyone thinks deaths are 2 weeks behind cases because that's how it looked the first time. But we were way behind on the cases the last time and they seemed to spike a few weeks before deaths but actually, it was way before and they were way higher.
One reason CFR isn't the same as what it was earlier on is because earlier on there were many more older people/people with co-morbidities infected compared to now. Obviously this latter group is much more susceptible to succumb to the virus. Infections in recent months have been fueled by people going to bars etc, usually this demographic skews a lot younger.

The TWiV people (This Week in Virology - world leading experts in this field) think the CFR could well end up around 1%, but they also think its still an extremely dangerous virus.
[Reply]
Bugeater 06:11 PM 07-07-2020
Originally Posted by suzzer99:



Here you go Pete, maybe these won't upset your delicate respiratory system. Of course you'll still spread covid if you have it. But who cares, right? It's not real anyway. Or if it is it's not that bad.
You....uhhhh...got a link to those? :-)
[Reply]
suzzer99 06:41 PM 07-07-2020
Originally Posted by HUMONGOUS BONEREATER:
You....uhhhh...got a link to those? :-)
Just google lemon party, tubgirl or goatse with safe search off. Make sure you're at work and your boss is standing behind you.
[Reply]
tyecopeland 06:58 PM 07-07-2020
Originally Posted by Chief Pagan:
If droplet is the primary means of spread (and I realize this isn't settled), I've wondered how much you need to wear it over your nose. Shouting, singing, talking loud, breathing hard (say from gym activity) all seem to be a problem and obviously coughing.

But for someone who is infected but is asymptomatic, does breathing through your nose present much of a risk of infecting other people? If we could get people to just wear a mask over their mouth but not their nose, would that be almost as good as wearing it over both mouth and nose?

It would certainly be more comfortable.
Well around where I live under the nose is the most common way of masks being worn. Even by employees mandated to wear a mask, like me now.
[Reply]
tyecopeland 07:04 PM 07-07-2020
Originally Posted by HUMONGOUS BONEREATER:
You....uhhhh...got a link to those? :-)
Don't know what harm you want to do with the info but just search etsy for mesh masks.
[Reply]
Chief Pagan 07:08 PM 07-07-2020
Originally Posted by tyecopeland:
Well around where I live under the nose is the most common way of masks being worn. Even by employees mandated to wear a mask, like me now.
Well here's hoping it's still effective.
[Reply]
TLO 07:34 PM 07-07-2020
Potential good news

https://academic.oup.com/cid/article...iaa630/5842185
[Reply]
petegz28 07:36 PM 07-07-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
Potential good news

https://academic.oup.com/cid/article...iaa630/5842185
That's great. We are starting to see more and more methods of reducing mortality which hopefully keeps the death count from rising very much with this latest spike in cases.
[Reply]
Bugeater 07:39 PM 07-07-2020
Originally Posted by tyecopeland:
Don't know what harm you want to do with the info but just search etsy for mesh masks.
I'm busy with that lemon party site right now but thanks!
[Reply]
suzzer99 07:51 PM 07-07-2020

If you’re thinking new cases in the US will not come with deaths and life altering severe disease, get out of the aggregated data and look specifically where the cases are taking off

A 10x increase in hospitalization, ICU admits, and ventilators use is a very bad sign. pic.twitter.com/IoBzml0OLR

— Michael Mina (@michaelmina_lab) July 7, 2020


Well at least this means we should probably have a good idea in two weeks if deaths really are lower this time around - due to younger/less at-risk demographics. When NYC had a big spike like this, deaths started spiking about 2 weeks later. But a spike in ventilator usage is not a good sign for that.
[Reply]
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