Now at -740

Every single stock on the Dow is down led by the big banks JPM , GS over 4%
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It's recession time, brothers! Buy, buy, buy!
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We have more downside to go but I am buying lightly on the way down.
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Will it be a volatile down swing (you think) or swift and steady?
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All downswings are volatile. Think of tearing down a house. You don't do it brick by brick. My target on the downside at the moment is between 2730 -2790 on the SP500.

If you ever look at a downturn in the market look at a chart of the VIX. You will quickly see that increased volatility and down markets go hand in hand.
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Took two hours to fill a couple of shares of the Schwab large cap ETF. I probably didn't set the stop price at the optimal level but w/ever. Commission free trades.
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Heard a great analysis today on CNBC by a Treasury trader who said this entire inversion crap goes back on the shoulders of the Fed and their aggressive rate hiking last year. Now they actually need to start dumping their $2.4t worth of 10 years and cut rates to get the curve back to normal.
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I like this guy . I've watched several of his videos and i have to say I agree with 99% of what he says. Maybe that's why I like him.


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Sorry, but that’s an entirely ridiculous analysis.

Term premium - or the amount investors are compensated for investing in longer maturity interest rates - is low. A portion of that is a function of the Fed’s large holdings of Treasury securities. But a larger portion is the fact that 30y German bonds are yielding -0.20% (exerting a global pull lower in yield) and a portion is a function of lower inflation expectations than we’ve faced in many, many decades. So it’s a lot easier

You’ll hear a lot about how the inverted yield curve is an indicator of a coming recession. And while that may be true, there are lots and lots of reasons why it could easily be giving a false positive in this environment given the much reduced term premium mentioned above (ie, inversion has a much lower bar) and a sort of self-fulfilling quality to it all as the Treasury rally tends to accelerate when it inverts because of its alleged meaning. I’d also mention that liquidity - that is, the ease with which one buys and sells - in Treasuries is abysmal right now (JPM released a paper today mentioning that it declined by a factor of 3 this month), and August is seasonally a month very favorable to a flattening of the yield curve.

In any case, if the Fed actually started selling Treasury securities as per the trader you saw on CNBC (I wanna LOL at that), equities would be down 10% tomorrow.

The Fed hasn’t been the problem here, no matter what Trump tells you.
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Now you tell me!!!

Thanks a lot asshole!
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First of all this has nothing to do with Trump so talk about idiotic analysis, you just said the most idiotic thing I've heard in a while. Secondly I don't disagree with anything you said save the part of excusing the Fed. Thirdly I agree that if the Fed started selling it would put pressure on equities but that was not the point this person was making. A Fed cut and a dump of 10 years would in fact right the curve. The fact it would impact equities negatively however is expected. You can LOL all you want but newsflash, just because you are in the business doesn't mean you are the only one in the business.
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Meh, keep using your EMAs of they work for you. But I am just saying when you hear the talking heads spattering about averages they are using SMAs.
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If you think the inverted yield curve has nothing to do with Trump, you don’t know as much as you think you do about markets.

And further, what’s so great about an analysis (your words) that speak to actions the Fed can take to force the yield curve steeper that would actually increase the odds of a recession? The whole issue of an inverted yield curve is what people think it represents given that historically it often - but not always - presaged recession. If the Fed decided to torque the yield curve by itself, you’d just lose the signal while doing nothing to treat the disease. Correlation <> causation.
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You've said a lot of nothing. How has Trump inverted the yield curve? I have not heard one person claim that so you have the stage.
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I don’t know whom you speak to. I worked at Goldman Sachs for a decade and was a managing director on the US Treasury Desk. Since then I’ve worked at a hedge fund as a portfolio manager. I can assure you that people I speak to on a daily basis think Trump is a prime reason the curve has inverted. And why? Simply, his trade policies have put a crimp in the global supply chain, increased uncertainty, and slowed global growth. If you want to go deeper, he crafted a stimulus package that was completely unnecessary (and in the end also far less effective) when the economy was at or near ‘full employment,’ which prompted the Fed to raise rates faster than they otherwise would’ve done. This did nothing to increase ‘trend growth’ or the supply side of the economy as had been promised.

I’m no fan of Trump and I realize I’m arguing with somewho would has a sig celebrating him, but this is my view as a market participant, not as someone who is politically biased.
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