Nick Jacobs is basically the Chiefs expert for the 41 action news in KC. He's a great, Terez-level commentator on the team. His podcast is 4th and 1, and I highly recommend it. I'd put it alongside AP Lab as the best Chiefs podcasts out there.
Anyway, he tweeted something today that I've long suspected: that Chris Jones is unaffordable for this team. That it may be worth tagging and trading him this coming offseason for a Frank Clark-esque haul. After all, we've already got $100m tied into him, and it stresses too many other positions on the team to pay two guys like that.
My suggestion, for quite some time, has been to trade our 2020 1st and maybe some more if we have to in order to land a premier CB.
Because if we have to tag and trade Jones, and based on what he's asking for, that's probably going to have to happen, we can always get that 1st back.
That's where Jacobs disagreed with me. He believes the Chiefs are going to ride with Breeland/Fuller/Ward/Claiborne.
The ideal situation is for that to somehow work. Because if it does, you can keep your 1st for next year, while adding another 1st and then some for Chris Jones.
Originally Posted by O.city:
Theoretically, though, having 2 Okafors would financially allow you to add more to other parts of the defense, making those 2's job easier.
To a point, I agree. I don't know that you need $20 million guys on the edges, but you need good players there and preferably ones that can get double the sacks that Okafor does. That said, I'd dump more assets defensively into the front 4 than anywhere else. They reduce the amount of time spent in coverage by all other positions and help reduce the workload in the run game. You let a guy like Jones walk to instead dump millions into a top-flight CB, for instance, I think you're making your team worse. I'm also a fan of putting resources into the DT position over and above all others defensively. They have the quickest route to disrupting plays, and if they are good at it like Jones then you don't let that go. There's only a handful of guys in the league that can disrupt like Jones. Pay the man his money. [Reply]
No way am I favoring Chris Jones over Tyreek Hill. This team is an Offense first unit and you're just not going to replace an elite deep threat like that. [Reply]
With the Tyreek extension, here are all the current Chiefs 2020 free agents who are either currently on the 53 or projected to play some sort of role on the 53 man roster. I also threw Gehrig Dieter on there just for laughs.
GEHRIG DIETER
Chad Henne
Darron Lee
Xavier Williams
Jordan Lucas
Morris Claiborne
Bashaud Breeland
Emmanuel Ogbah
Chris Jones
Reggie Ragland
Matt Moore
Anthony Sherman
Blake Bell
De'Anthony Thomas
Kendall Fuller
Demarcus Robinson
Deon Yelder
Andrew Wylie
Ryan Hunter
Potentially we're losing our top 3 CBs from this season (Fuller, Breeland, Claiborne). We're going to have to extend or re-sign at least one of those guys for mid-tier starting CB money or go to free agency looking for a starting CB. There's always the draft, but it's usually foolish to bank on a single draft class giving you two good starting corners.
Would also be really nice to keep Lee.
Everyone else is totally replaceable, but we should also keep in mind that we only have so many draft picks. Not everybody can walk. Especially if we're doing a total rebuild at CB and LB. [Reply]
Originally Posted by kccrow:
You have to develop a formula for your perceived value of production. For instance, I may say that I will give 2 points for tackles net of sacks, 6 points for sacks, and 4 points for passes defensed. These are metrics the league actually tracks.
In Donald's case, he would have then had a 4-year average prior to signing his deal of 150 points. With an AAV of $22.5M, his approximate value per unit of production then is $150K.
Using the same valuation, Jones has a 3-year average of 120 points. Extrapolating $150K over 120 points yields an AAV of $18.06M. League inflation since the boom in 2013 is 7.35% per year. Since you wouldn't really be using NPV, but rather FV of an annuity to calculate TVM, and we use 7% for simplicity, the FV is $19.3M AAV. If he were to sign in the offseason next year, that is about $20.7M AAV. He'd have to break his average of 34 tackles, 8 sacks, and 5 passes defensed to impact his value versus Donald's. He'd need to duplicate last season's efforts to get a time-adjusted value the same as Donald's AAV.
Now, my system is undoubtedly imperfect. No factors for snap counts as a percentage of defensive plays, qb hurries, and other such information. It's an off-the-cuff valuation for example purposes.
The question for me is more along the lines of, can we expect Jones to have production in line with Donald's heading into his contract? Donald averaged 51 tackles, 10 sacks, and 2 passes defensed heading into his extension. Moving to a 4-3, I'd have to think that this is entirely probable. This was also the thought process on inking Donald to his contract. There was no thought that this guy would blow up for 20 sacks, and I think it would be unreasonable to have any similar expectation for Jones to even repeat last year's 15.5. Neither of these guys are JJ Watt level players, but they are the closest in the league right now.
Circling back to your value per unit salary cap, I think it's incredibly hard to use that as pure justification for who you choose to pay or not pay. I can absolutely value all players and say that I get a much better deal for a player at a position that has moderate production than a guy that gets much better production. Case in point, you pay Frank Clark $20.8 AAV for 40 tackles and 12 sacks. He is incredibly hard to block with a single lineman on a snap-to-snap basis and is extremely disruptive. The offense has to account for Clark every single play. You pay Alex Okafor $6.0 AAV for 40 tackles and 4 sacks. He isn't difficult to block on a snap-to-snap basis. He will make the plays that come to him much more so than having a large effect on the game. The offense generally doesn't need to do anything more to account for him than block him 1-on-1. So, in terms value per unit, Clark costs about $162k and Okafor $62k. Do you really want to trot out two Okafor's instead of a Clark and an Okafor? You do need impact players over and above the moneyball guys.
Yeah, I'm a numbers guy (to a lesser extent than you no doubt) but it's hard to quantify. You watch these teams on TV and Donald is wreaking havoc every fucking play. Jones has a handful of good plays and disappears for stretches. So I really struggle with the differences between the two. From a stats perspective they're not that different, so you're down to assessing a value on the plays that don't hit a stat sheet.
I don't have a good answer but here's what I know: Donald is a teir better than Jones, I'm not willing to give Jones money.
RE: playmakers vs moneyball guys.
I don't know about all that. Especially on defense. I'm going to guess that 11 guys that are sound will beat 7 sound guys, 2 great guys, and 2 shitheels. I think the shitheels will just get abused all day long.
I mean, we've been there. We've fielded teams with stars of:
Eric Berry
Justin Houston
Tamba Hali
Derrick Johnson
Marcus Peters
That couldn't go out and buy a stop.
Conversely, the Cheatriots rolled out a bunch of dudes and held the NFC champion to a buttfucking fieldgoal. There's no star power there. I mean, Patrick Chung? Gilmore? Michael Bennet? Other than being a fucking loudmouth with his idiot brother, he's no star.
I know Belicheat is on a different level than...everybody, but an argument is there that stars are the death of defense - meaning that you're going to have to roll out some schlubs. [Reply]
Belichick has traditionally paid a couple of stars on defense, usually along the DL and DB. Guys that come to mind are Ty Warren, Vince Wilfork, Richard Seymour, Ty Law, Devin McCourty, Lawyer Milloy, Willie McGinnest, Rodney Harrison, Tedy Bruschi, Mike Vrabel, and Jerod Mayo. It's just that the contract values then weren't necessarily what they've ballooned up to be since about 2013 when the cap started it's massive 7% per year ascent. I agree with a philosophy that pays 1 good edge, 1 good defensive tackle and 1 good CB. I think you need those pillars on defense. After that, I think you try to even out your resources with average guys and rookie deal guys.
If you want to see more of a case in point where Belichick didn't pay, it's moreso on offense. He's always reworked his O-line with lunchpail dudes that don't break bank and drafted a LT every handful of years. He doesn't commit much there. He's rarely spent money on the receiver position and pretty much churns the RB spot. QB and TE are the places he's spent, that's about it.
I'd argue he's traditionally spent more on big defensive contracts than big offensive contracts. That said, he has alot more of those $3-4 million per dudes than most teams and less of the big dollar contracts. [Reply]
Originally Posted by kccrow:
Belichick has traditionally paid a couple of stars on defense, usually along the DL and DB. Guys that come to mind are Ty Warren, Vince Wilfork, Richard Seymour, Ty Law, Devin McCourty, Lawyer Milloy, Willie McGinnest, Rodney Harrison, Tedy Bruschi, Mike Vrabel, and Jerod Mayo. It's just that the contract values then weren't necessarily what they've ballooned up to be since about 2013 when the cap started it's massive 7% per year ascent. I agree with a philosophy that pays 1 good edge, 1 good defensive tackle and 1 good CB. I think you need those pillars on defense. After that, I think you try to even out your resources with average guys and rookie deal guys.
If you want to see more of a case in point where Belichick didn't pay, it's moreso on offense. He's always reworked his O-line with lunchpail dudes that don't break bank and drafted a LT every handful of years. He doesn't commit much there. He's rarely spent money on the receiver position and pretty much churns the RB spot. QB and TE are the places he's spent, that's about it.
I'd argue he's traditionally spent more on big defensive contracts than big offensive contracts. That said, he has alot more of those $3-4 million per dudes than most teams and less of the big dollar contracts.
Going from memory, but I think Mayo was the only guy that had a top of the market type deal. You can't work for nothing, but rarely is he ever fielding a guy that blows up the stat sheet, and that is for sure the case with last year's defense, who had a bunch of fucking nobodies on it but they never got beat bad except for 2 halves of Mahomes. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Buehler445:
Going from memory, but I think Mayo was the only guy that had a top of the market type deal. You can't work for nothing, but rarely is he ever fielding a guy that blows up the stat sheet, and that is for sure the case with last year's defense, who had a bunch of fucking nobodies on it but they never got beat bad except for 2 halves of Mahomes.
Seymour was the highest-paid player in the NFL in 2006 and had a very lucrative deal then.
Law signed a 6-year $50 million contract in 1999 which made him the 2nd highest paid CB in the NFL behind Deion Sanders.
I think you got the point. Even the Patriots sign guys to big deals, it's just they haven't very recently.
Edit: Just thought you might want to look at OTC on some of their contracts such as Dont'e Hightower and such. Hightower is the 7th ranked 4-3 olb contract in the nfl and 3 ahead of him signed this offseason.
Stephon Gilmore is 9th ranked at CB with 3 having signed contracts after him. McCourty is 9th at S, but was 2nd to only Berry iirc when he signed and most everyone above him now signed at least 2 years later than him. They still spend in inconspicuous ways. [Reply]
Originally Posted by kccrow:
Seymour was the highest-paid player in the NFL in 2006 and had a very lucrative deal then.
Law signed a 6-year $50 million contract in 1999 which made him the 2nd highest paid CB in the NFL behind Deion Sanders.
I think you got the point. Even the Patriots sign guys to big deals, it's just they haven't very recently.
Edit: Just thought you might want to look at OTC on some of their contracts such as Dont'e Hightower and such. Hightower is the 7th ranked 4-3 olb contract in the nfl and 3 ahead of him signed this offseason.
Stephon Gilmore is 9th ranked at CB with 3 having signed contracts after him. McCourty is 9th at S, but was 2nd to only Berry iirc when he signed and most everyone above him now signed at least 2 years later than him. They still spend in inconspicuous ways.
That’s fair. I did not look at otc. My point still stands. There aren’t a bunch of widely regarded playmakers on that squad. Solid squad front to back though. Hopefully we can get there. I’m worried about the back half but maybe we can get better discipline out of these fucks. Errr our guys :-) [Reply]
Originally Posted by Buehler445:
That’s fair. I did not look at otc. My point still stands. There aren’t a bunch of widely regarded playmakers on that squad. Solid squad front to back though. Hopefully we can get there. I’m worried about the back half but maybe we can get better discipline out of these fucks. Errr our guys :-)
Well, he's had playmakers, just on rookie deals. He's churned enough of them though, which makes him look like a fucking genius. Chandler Jones... sends him packing... then gets Trey Flowers.... sends him packing. McCourty and Gilmore are some of the tops in the NFL at their positions. They just went out and signed Michael Bennett, who's no slouch and cost 8.5 AAV at 34 years old, to replace Flowers and then drafted Winovich to groom to replace him. Malcom Brown was one of the better DTs in the NFL. He's another guy that Bill just let walk and traded for Danny Shelton to replace. We'll see if that backfires on him or not given that Brown signed for peanuts in New Orleans (3 for 15). What he's had to do though, to maintain this style is to replace these guys with high picks. Jones and Brown cost 1st round picks. Flowers was a lucky 4th. Usually he's replacing these guys with 1st and 2nd round guys. They have playmakers, just maybe they aren't talked about and noticed as much? What you see though is Bill drafts ahead for his system and grooms guys and gets them to play to high levels within that system.
The Ravens were also a great example of that under Ozzy. They churned guys on that defensive front with regularity but they always had a guy waiting in the wings.
The Chiefs had so many whiffs of late on the defensive side of the ball that instead of churning within they are digging for gold outside of the organization, and it's expensive. I think, eventually you can get to that and reduce the huge contracts, but it will take time. Imagine if KC actually hit on Speaks and Kpass and got more immediate contributions? It'd look alot better than it does now and we probably wouldn't be talking about a $20 million contract for Clark and we wouldn't be pressed into thinking Jones should be re-signed. [Reply]
Back to the OP and piggybacking on this discussion with Buehler... I think if I'm going to trade for a CB of value, it's going to be an offer to a team like Buffalo for Tre'Davious White. He has 3 years left on his rookie deal if you pick up his 5th-year option. Trading resources for a guy like Peterson doesn't make a ton of sense to me in terms of ROI. You're going to see his sharp decline coming soon. You're just dumping more money right now into guys instead of spreading your cash outlays.
The only issue with trading with a team like Buffalo is they aren't going to give you White in some combination trade for Jones since they drafted Oliver this year, signed Star Lotulelei and drafted Williams a year ago. They are good at DT. Buffalo, in particular, has a shortage of CBs as well. You'd likely be sending them a player like Fuller plus picks. Even then, its incredibly hard to get your hands on young, ascending CBs.
Someone mentioned William Jackson III. He makes sense in that you'd get this year for cheap and next year on his option, but then you have to pay him. You're still getting a couple discounted seasons. That said, he's their top CB and they dont' have anything on the burner behind him, much like Buffalo.
That said, there is credence to going the top CB route. There has been an uptrend to changing the philosophy in the NFL and Bill Belichick is at the absolute forefront of that. Teams, especially NE, are starting to focus on stopping the pass first and taking away your best receiver. They are starting to run Mint fronts to compensate against the run game where it's basically a 4 down front in a 3 down mask, the ends in the B gaps, the nose taking an A gap, and the MLB taking the other A gap. You force teams to throw to secondary receivers and bounce runners to the boundary where all your speed players are. He put resources into getting Gilmore, who is in the conversation for the league's top corner, and keeping his good safeties. He's added pieces there and let defensive lineman become interchangeable pieces. He has $45.3 million into the secondary, a $4.53m per unit cost that is 24.2% of their cap spend. He has $23.6m into linebackers, with $3.94m per unit and 12.6% of their cap spend, and he has $16.38m into defensive lineman with $2.05 per unit and 8.7% of their cap spend. (Buehler, he has 52.0% of his cap spend to offense btw so he is teetering that way right now). [Reply]
Your point about whiffing on defensive guys is spot on.
But with Belicheat it’s hard for me to glean the talent evaluation from the coaching up aspect. Because we can’t reproduce the coaching. We can get there with evaluation though IMO. [Reply]
